Rolf,

Your candor and extremely sensible worldview make it difficult for me to remain in character.

I'm glad that we'll be working together by 2015. Go Vikes!

 

Y'all are forgetting Delta. There is no way that they sit on the sidelines and allow a competitor to buy into JFK with out making it extremely expensive. If they don't buy JBU outright, I'd expect them to run up the price for SWA ala Crandell screwing Ron Allen over Pan Am.

 

I'll bring my stapler!

 

Like they let SWA waltz into their ATL hub and buy Airtran without any fuss?

I'll put on my aluminum beanie for a moment and say that Gary Kelly and Richard Anderson have a good professional relationship and know they can co-exist together. I've heard the 717 transaction was a sweetheart deal for Delta, and I wouldnt be surprised to see a similar arrangement if SWA bought JB (320/321s and 190s).

 

Candide

Step away from the crack pipe.

 

Delta didn't need the AirTran feed into ATL and quite possibly needed a LCC to keep the appearance that there is competition in Atlanta. It's not like SWA has done anything but shrink the AirTran footprint anyway.

JFK is another story. JetBlue offers an instant domestic feed as opposed to LGA, where all the feed is now. Trust RA at your peril. The 717s were a sweetheart deal, but don't expect Delta to look the other way if someone else makes a play to grow in JFK.

Anyway, JetBlue will probably be bought by someone else before SWA has finished choking down the remmnants of AirTran.

 

Meh. I don't think that airline LBOs similar to those of the 80s are as likely anymore. Could be wrong, but I highly doubt it.


There would be fireworks, dat be true though.

 

And what did SWA do? **** off the business travelers that AirTran had. Good move... and thanks by the way. Hopefully they will be on DAL metal in the coming months/years. We really appreciate their business. Oh, and the 717 deal was a great deal for DAL. We are getting those airplanes practically for a song. GK was in over his head.

But you bring up an interesting theory.

You believe that if.. and it is a really big if... SWA bought JB that GK would then turn around and sell all the Airbusses? What would he then fly the routes with? Would he staple the JB pilots as well? His legacy would definitely be sealed at that point.

 

Kelly is a numbers guy, to suggest he is "in over his head" is simply not looking at the big picture. SWA has prospered in large part due to the single fleet type. The expense of keeping the 717's until the leases ran out outweighed the cost of getting rid of them quickly. Training pilots, mechanics and F.A.'s on two fleets, carrying spare parts for two fleets, and less revenue from a smaller aircraft in the same mission that a 737 already accomplishes in virtually every market does not make economic sense in the long term. If you think anything other than a serious cost benefit analysis led to the sale of the 717 you don't understand how Kelly operates. SWA will simply slow down retirements of the classic fleet to keep the fleet numbers flat while greatly increasing capacity.

 

I think he definately would. Operate separately and phase out as fast as 737's could roll off the line. I really don't think he'd nuke his pilot group by giving anything even remotely close to a partial or greater relative integration to an extremely junior pilot group. GK and SWAPA would likely agree to a Guadalupe-on-Steroids arrangement to get what they wanted, and nothing more.

Also, however it went down, it would likely be a 2, 3 or even 4 party deal. There are things many other airlines would want out of something like that. With a certain amount of forced divesture being inevitable to some degree, might as well divvy things up on the front end while further reducing exposure to a relative windfall potential by a young group. Not every airline CEO would care much about that one element of a deal, but I'd bet GK would, and to some extent RA and DP too, if for no other reason than to grease the skids during the next phase of their master plan(s).