Could SWA be looking after AA/US ???
#41
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I think he definately would. Operate separately and phase out as fast as 737's could roll off the line. I really don't think he'd nuke his pilot group by giving anything even remotely close to a partial or greater relative integration to an extremely junior pilot group. GK and SWAPA would likely agree to a Guadalupe-on-Steroids arrangement to get what they wanted, and nothing more.
Also, however it went down, it would likely be a 2, 3 or even 4 party deal. There are things many other airlines would want out of something like that. With a certain amount of forced divesture being inevitable to some degree, might as well divvy things up on the front end while further reducing exposure to a relative windfall potential by a young group. Not every airline CEO would care much about that one element of a deal, but I'd bet GK would, and to some extent RA and DP too, if for no other reason than to grease the skids during the next phase of their master plan(s).
Also, however it went down, it would likely be a 2, 3 or even 4 party deal. There are things many other airlines would want out of something like that. With a certain amount of forced divesture being inevitable to some degree, might as well divvy things up on the front end while further reducing exposure to a relative windfall potential by a young group. Not every airline CEO would care much about that one element of a deal, but I'd bet GK would, and to some extent RA and DP too, if for no other reason than to grease the skids during the next phase of their master plan(s).
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#42
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Kelly is a numbers guy, to suggest he is "in over his head" is simply not looking at the big picture. SWA has prospered in large part due to the single fleet type. The expense of keeping the 717's until the leases ran out outweighed the cost of getting rid of them quickly. Training pilots, mechanics and F.A.'s on two fleets, carrying spare parts for two fleets, and less revenue from a smaller aircraft in the same mission that a 737 already accomplishes in virtually every market does not make economic sense in the long term. If you think anything other than a serious cost benefit analysis led to the sale of the 717 you don't understand how Kelly operates. SWA will simply slow down retirements of the classic fleet to keep the fleet numbers flat while greatly increasing capacity.
Leo Mullin was a numbers guy too. But maybe "over his head" was a bit harsh. What I should have said is that he now has to compete with bigger carriers with way more flexibility on a level playing field. (All American Boeing 757 being powered with all American made jet fuel)
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And just where do you think these 737s are gonna be rolling in from? Seen your order book lately? I know how Kelly operates. He's no different than any other "numbers guy". Good luck. You're gonna need it.
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#44
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Did you miss the part about Southwest placing the largest firm order in Boeing history? The value of all 208 jets in the order totals nearly $19 billion. The firm order book for 2013 is 20 -800 aircraft. 2014 has firm orders for 5 -700's and 24 -800's with an additional 15 options. 2015 36 firm orders and 12 options. 2016 31 firm orders and 12 options, 2017 34 firm orders and 25 options. 2018 40 firm and 28 options. Delivery of the 30 deferred aircraft will be split evenly at 15 frames each in 2017 and 2018. Southwest plans to keep its fleet count largely unchanged as the 717s move to Delta at a rate of three a month starting in mid-2013.
#47
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Yes I did. And I also realize the total irrelevance of that metric, yet am amazed that it is continually brought up. (even though I shouldn't be)
#48
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Did you miss the part about Southwest placing the largest firm order in Boeing history? The value of all 208 jets in the order totals nearly $19 billion. The firm order book for 2013 is 20 -800 aircraft. 2014 has firm orders for 5 -700's and 24 -800's with an additional 15 options. 2015 36 firm orders and 12 options. 2016 31 firm orders and 12 options, 2017 34 firm orders and 25 options. 2018 40 firm and 28 options. Delivery of the 30 deferred aircraft will be split evenly at 15 frames each in 2017 and 2018. Southwest plans to keep its fleet count largely unchanged as the 717s move to Delta at a rate of three a month starting in mid-2013.
#49
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Very low longevity. But you knew that. T I give you a lot of credit for sticking to your guns for full category/relative as a matter of philosophy. I really do. I think you even once went to the mat on the issue saying you would support 2 year Kalitta captains sliding into a DL master list number and pay rate getting a $200 raise and 30 years of seniority to honor the concept. I just disagree with that. If a legacy bought JB, even if they weren't non union, expect a viscious fight to prevent 5 year 320 captains sliding in with 20+ year counterparts and 2013 hire FO's sliding in with 2001 hires.
I don't think they "deserve" that, however it doesn't matter what I think they deserve or what they think they deserve. You get what you negotiate, not what you deserve. And I don't see that being negotiated. Ever.
I don't think they "deserve" that, however it doesn't matter what I think they deserve or what they think they deserve. You get what you negotiate, not what you deserve. And I don't see that being negotiated. Ever.
#50
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Unchanged is the operable word in your post. You have been talking about engaging in another merger that would result in GK selling off the 319/320s (like the 717s) and maintaining some sort of neutral metal stance. How you gonna do that with your delivery schedule? It would be simply another example of SWA trying to rid itself of a competitor via a purchase. Go for it.
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