prob a combo of pilots per plane devided in half and mandatory retirements, though it wasnt my number

Gotcha! Hope for everyone's sake over there that those numbers will change in a more favorable way.

Junior award is 1054, 1600 is a better guess if you ask me. Who knows!!!

no new orders=when the music stops at 161 planes, there are only so many capt spots. 161x17pilots per plane...divide in half you get 1368ish captains.

With PBS it’s more like 14 per plane...

If your friend has been here for 2 years already then yes, he will likely have a 3 year (total) upgrade. However, for someone hired now, that mathematically will not occur unless we get a new aircraft order or much much higher attrition (possible! Lol)

At the end of 2017, the most junior CA upgrade will be at 56% of the list.

Just my guess but... at the end of this aircraft order, 2021, we should have around 2600 pilots, with current staffing model. That puts junior captain at seniority 1500 ish. We have already hired through seniority 1800 ish.

I don’t understand why this concept is so difficult for some to grasp. If you get hired now, you will not upgrade for a very long time unless there is a substantial aircraft order. That is a FACT.

Spirit will be a great career choice if:
1 we get a good contract soon
2 airplane order
3 Management is changed to a group that cares about employees
4 we don’t get bought, merged, parted out etc.

Or you can play the powerball, which probably has better odds

So true. I hope everyone takes into consideration the reduced staffing requirement and it's effects when considering PBS.

But I thought it was just a way to bid

Technically it is, lol