Spirit is still a growth company, which is why it doesn’t pay a dividend. Pre-Covid and pre legacies mopping up all available pilots, shareholders were expecting double digit growth. The market is there, and a combined NK and F9 would be a juggernaut, however having served under the Indigo regime I echo the sentiments of others that it’s not a management I preferred to retire under.

At one time the growth was such that upgrades were down under two years, but yes mathematically a 400 pilot airline doubling to 800, 1600, to now 3400 will naturally increase time to line holder captain. Retirements are low, and even without the current shortage there would have still been some attrition to legacies as there always has been. But the order book is significant and in a vacuum a NK pilot hired 4 years ago could have reasonably expected to be a junior line holding captain. We have been short captains, but the FO attrition has limited training capacity which is why they have remained at a trickle. The 319’s going away has stop-gapped things to a degree, but not for lack of demand or need for increased capacity on current routes. NEO engine woes also have an effect.

The interesting question when it comes to evaluating career expectations is how much consideration will be given to these external factors. That’s for a mediator to decide, and ultimately it will be just one of several factors involved with seniority list integration, but I think it is disingenuous to say NK is a maturing airline that is seeing a natural tapering off of upgrade potential like one would expect at Southwest or a pre-shortage legacy.

Interesting times ahead.

 

Hey, both sides will make their best cases and the mediator will ultimately make the call. It is what it is and not really anything anyone gets a vote on.

​​​​​​​The JCBA on the other hand…

 

Not disingenuous at all. It isn't all or nothing, there aren't only infant ULCC or mature, it's a gradual maturing of the airline, and on the one hand you deny it has/is occured/occuring and on the other you make my case for me. Spirit isn't a 400 pilot airline with a big new order book. It's not an 800 pilot airline, anymore. It's not a 1200 pilot airline, anymore. It's 3400 pilots, and would need to double again to 6800 pilots on its own, just for some to reach 50%... without attrition. Attrition being high isn't really a selling point either.

I said Spirit is a maturING airline. That's a fact.

And... JBLU doesn't pay a dividend either. So equal(not sure why you brought that up, almost zero domestic airlines currently pay a dividend).?

Anyway, we are all just along for this ride.
​​​​

 

upvote filler

 

All correct. I was more pointing it out, as I do in person to the many FOs I fly with that think a 3 year upgrade will still be there after the merger. And for the ones that take the first available now, that they will likely be on reserve for a lot longer than it is currently. This was not pushing a ISL agenda towards RS, more of a reality check for junior guys picking NK over DL (yes, they exist).

 

Agree. What will help new hires on the combined list, some anyway, is JB does have a lot more retirements, and that number is generally ramping up. Not a huge number, but definitely statistically relevant.

 

Never enough 😂. But definitely more than NK. At least I am doing my part by being old.

 

The math is interesting, I saw a pdf made by a jet blue pilot a while back with various seniority stats and projections. 22.5% of B6 pilots will be retired in the next ten years, (assuming no age 67) and if you add the smaller number of NK retirements it amount to just under 19% of the current combined pilot group (using ~8000 total pilots). Stretch this out 15 years where 43% of current B6 will retire, and add in the NK numbers and that makes 33% of the current combined group gone. By 20 years it will be exactly half the current pilot group retired.

Assuming the new B6 doesn’t stop growth in that time, and in 20 years we reach 12,000 pilots, which is a modest 200 pilot per year gain, a 25 year old new hire today will be at 33% system seniority by age 45. Not a terrible place to be with another 20 years to go.

Obviously there are massive legacy retirement numbers, but a back side of the wave 25 year old would have to run the same numbers for a legacy and find where their high water seniority mark could take them considering the thousands of younger pilots hired in recent years. It’s highly probable that at the ten to fifteen year mark they would gain substantially more relative ground at a legacy, but that could taper off quickly in the second half of their careers.

 

What’s upgrade times looking like at Spirit nowadays ?





QUOTE=RemoveB4flght;3662993]Spirit is still a growth company, which is why it doesn’t pay a dividend. Pre-Covid and pre legacies mopping up all available pilots, shareholders were expecting double digit growth. The market is there, and a combined NK and F9 would be a juggernaut, however having served under the Indigo regime I echo the sentiments of others that it’s not a management I preferred to retire under.

At one time the growth was such that upgrades were down under two years, but yes mathematically a 400 pilot airline doubling to 800, 1600, to now 3400 will naturally increase time to line holder captain. Retirements are low, and even without the current shortage there would have still been some attrition to legacies as there always has been. But the order book is significant and in a













vacuum a NK pilot hired 4 years ago could have reasonably expected to be a junior line holding captain. We have been short captains, but the FO attrition has limited training capacity which is why they have remained at a trickle. The 319’s going away has stop-gapped things to a degree, but not for lack of demand or need for increased capacity on current routes. NEO engine woes also have an effect.

The interesting question when it comes to evaluating career expectations is how much consideration will be given to these external factors. That’s for a mediator to decide, and ultimately it will be just one of several factors involved with seniority list integration, but I think it is disingenuous to say NK is a maturing airline that is seeing a natural tapering off of upgrade potential like one would expect at Southwest or a pre-shortage legacy.

Interesting times ahead.[/QUOTE]

 

[/QUOTE]

3 years

filler