Upgrade
#91
Not that, I misread the invester report, for some reason had 2020 in my mind for start of deliveries instead of 2022, so should have been a 6 yr upgrade:
Before PBS upgrade was really steady at 55%RS. TBH haven’t delved really deep, but with the reserve QOL, it’s definitely possible more people bypass. So WAG upgrade drops to 60%RS, so a Jan 2022 new hire (#2400) needs 1600 below him, @ 16/aircraft = 100 deliveries, so end of 2027 = 6 years.
Pilots hired this summer numbers:
May hire #2150, needs another 1433, so 90 deliveries.
58 till 4Q21, @17/yr 2 more years, so 4 1/2 years.
You’re assuming people bypass forever, a good size of those 30/month upgrades go to pilots above the plug.
Before PBS upgrade was really steady at 55%RS. TBH haven’t delved really deep, but with the reserve QOL, it’s definitely possible more people bypass. So WAG upgrade drops to 60%RS, so a Jan 2022 new hire (#2400) needs 1600 below him, @ 16/aircraft = 100 deliveries, so end of 2027 = 6 years.
Pilots hired this summer numbers:
May hire #2150, needs another 1433, so 90 deliveries.
58 till 4Q21, @17/yr 2 more years, so 4 1/2 years.
You’re assuming people bypass forever, a good size of those 30/month upgrades go to pilots above the plug.
Add to that at any time another event like a base opening (especially west of the Mississippi) could trigger a huge chunk of upgrade holdouts.
For posterity I would plan on needing to be at 50% for an upgrade and anything earlier to that is a gift.
Either way, the days of 2 year upgrades are long gone as this growth is steady, not exponential.
Bottom line today was great news and solidifies NK as a valid career choice for those recently hired.
#92
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: Bus Driver
Posts: 125
Very much this.
Add to that at any time another event like a base opening (especially west of the Mississippi) could trigger a huge chunk of upgrade holdouts.
For posterity I would plan on needing to be at 50% for an upgrade and anything earlier to that is a gift.
Either way, the days of 2 year upgrades are long gone as this growth is steady, not exponential.
Bottom line today was great news and solidifies NK as a valid career choice for those recently hired.
Add to that at any time another event like a base opening (especially west of the Mississippi) could trigger a huge chunk of upgrade holdouts.
For posterity I would plan on needing to be at 50% for an upgrade and anything earlier to that is a gift.
Either way, the days of 2 year upgrades are long gone as this growth is steady, not exponential.
Bottom line today was great news and solidifies NK as a valid career choice for those recently hired.
#93
Very much this.
Add to that at any time another event like a base opening (especially west of the Mississippi) could trigger a huge chunk of upgrade holdouts.
For posterity I would plan on needing to be at 50% for an upgrade and anything earlier to that is a gift.
Either way, the days of 2 year upgrades are long gone as this growth is steady, not exponential.
Bottom line today was great news and solidifies NK as a valid career choice for those recently hired.
Add to that at any time another event like a base opening (especially west of the Mississippi) could trigger a huge chunk of upgrade holdouts.
For posterity I would plan on needing to be at 50% for an upgrade and anything earlier to that is a gift.
Either way, the days of 2 year upgrades are long gone as this growth is steady, not exponential.
Bottom line today was great news and solidifies NK as a valid career choice for those recently hired.
#94
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 566
Any guess as to when the last CA for the present orders will be/was hired using current attrition and hiring data?
Is 8 crews per aircraft (2164/134) proper/adequate staffing or will that drift down closer to 6/aircraft?
Is 8 crews per aircraft (2164/134) proper/adequate staffing or will that drift down closer to 6/aircraft?
#95
Well Ted says in the conference call that 2-3 times shorter upgrade times will be the factor that “amazes” new hires and attracts potential hires in the competition for pilots in the years to come. If Ted says it then it must be true.
Two year upgrades for everyone.
Two year upgrades for everyone.
#96
There are still several hundred captains who haven't been hired.
#98
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,792
Well Ted says in the conference call that 2-3 times shorter upgrade times will be the factor that “amazes” new hires and attracts potential hires in the competition for pilots in the years to come. If Ted says it then it must be true.
Two year upgrades for everyone.
Two year upgrades for everyone.
#100
New Hire
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 1
Well Ted says in the conference call that 2-3 times shorter upgrade times will be the factor that “amazes” new hires and attracts potential hires in the competition for pilots in the years to come. If Ted says it then it must be true.
Two year upgrades for everyone.
Two year upgrades for everyone.
Helane Becker -- Analyst
Thanks operator. Hi, team. Thank you very much for the time of course. Two questions. One on -- as you think about the growth in the fleet, so if you I guess I think 10 crews per -- 5 crews per aircraft, 10 pilots per plan. And I'm wondering if you're thinking about, as you hire these 1,000 more pilots plus whatever you need to hire for reserves, how do you compete with the other airlines that are in the process of replacing retired pilots who have a higher starting pay. I mean -- are you -- and your contract doesn't come up until 2023. So how are you contemplating attracting people to your brand?
Scott M. Haralson -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes, it's a really good new story, Helane. The reason that Spirit is one of the most attractive places to work is that because of our growth, our pilots achieve seniority and therefore move themselves up into the captaincy faster than any other airline. And they do it by a factor of 2x or 3x faster than they will anywhere else, even when taking into account the retirement schedules. So what we love to see when we -- and you mentioned some numbers there that we're hiring a good deal of pilots, and we see them every time they come into the office. We bring them in here, and we get to meet with them, and they are thrilled to hear about the company's growth opportunities because they want to be here and be part of it, and they want to further their career. So that's our single-best asset when we're attracting pilot talent.
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