PiperPower

Does this mean they aren’t taking the bail out money?

stevo22

That's the million dollar question. Unless they are negotiating something with the government, it certainly looks that way.

Silver02ex

This is just my guess. Furlough and downgrade is more for long term, and doesn’t makes sense for 3-6 months. How long would it take the company to run those that are furlough or downgrade back in the sim, and cause a backlog for future NH whenever we grow again.

Jimdunbar

This is going to be a long term problem

nludy

Exactly! Until they have widespread testing or a vaccine people won't be going anywhere. This could problem last anywhere from 12-24 months. Without hardcore testing you won't be able to let people gather in large groups without causing the virus to popup and spread.

Balker

They need to read the fine print first. They haven’t suggested they will or won’t take it. I don’t know why people got all worked up. At this point it’s a wait and see game, no need to spread out rumors on baseless assumptions. It is my personal opinion management will have no choice but to take it since everyone else will. Of course, I might be wrong, specially if Ted has merger deal under his sleeve.

Macjet

You’re 100% correct. People are in denial thinking that this will be over by summer. Spirit will furlough and it’ll be big numbers. 1000-1500 pilots and 2000-3000 FA’s. Maybe more. The only two questions are when and will we survive as a company. I put Spirits chance of survival as a stand-alone company at less than 50%. If everyone doesn’t have a plan B then yesterday is the time to get one.

Balker

You’re right, it won’t be over soon. The shockwaves will expand for the rest of the year and possibly into 2021 but giving NK a less that 50% chance of survival it’s awfully pessimistic. You’re basically saying we have less chance than AA does. Domestic demand will recover way quicker than international putting us on a much better (or ”less worse”) position than legacies.
As far as furloughs go, it will all depend if we take the government money or not. If we do, it’ll put a moratorium on furloughs until early fall. If we don’t, yeah I can see 5-1.5k pilots hitting the streets.
Government is saying we’ll hit the apex in 7-14 days. That’s impossible considering the slow response we had compared to other countries, not to mention the unbelievable lack of testing capabilities we have. Expect more bad news everyday for at least 4-6 weeks. I don’t think we’ll reach the apex in less than 4 weeks, possibly more.
In the meantime, let’s all just try to remain calm.

Fixed Gear

Some of you guys are a ray of sunshine without anything set in stone. Try being more positive until we get facts and actually know what's going happen rather then speculate more and more negativity.

CAirBear

Exactly. There is no point in arguing with them.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/airlin...rn-until-2022/

It is believed we will be around 10-15% lower than 2019 numbers by Q4 (which starts in the fall). That’s still tens of millions of people traveling again by end of this year.

At some point people are going to get on with their lives. This wet dream of being holed up for the next 6-12 months is incredible.

For what it’s worth, the long stay TPA front desk lady is actually the sales lady. Skeleton crew right now, understandably so. She’s filling in for those at home.

She has had numerous NEW bookings for August and September. These are historically the slowest months of the year for them and now are booking up.

If you truly believe people won’t travel again, that is what you believe and I’m not going to argue with you. I’d say take a deep breath and relax. Nothing stay the same - good and bad.