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Quote:

Originally Posted by CAirBear (Post 3061716)

I completely agree. I feel like I’ve been one of the only few to tell everyone to “chill the F out” When things when to virtually 0. Same happened in China and it was coming back.

Now we are seeing very good signs here, this past week, and I don’t think it’s going to slow down.

The fact TC said we are adding flying in June that they didn’t even have on their radar 30 days ago tells you a hell of a lot about where things are headed.

318K screened yesterday. ORD is even busier this morning on my commute home then yesterday. Won’t be shocked at all to have it climb above 350k at some point this weekend.

Have friends at all of the Big 3. All are adding flying in June. AA is even taking some 73s back out if storage.

There’s talk of us doing 200-400 a day by July. That wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. I think July 4 - Labor Day is going to surprise a lot of the negative “the world is over along with our career” types.

I would be shocked if we don't furlough, but numbers are the numbers. As you detailed, 300k + yesterday is two milestones. Crossing 300k and in the process exceeding 10% of last year. The upward trend percentage-wise is accelerating. That said, it is a holiday, which can explain the two-day 30% spike in throughput, but the percentages of growth relative to same day last year are even higher now.

It appears to me the rebound will continue to compound as it has, and 200-400 by July is pretty accurate imo. I'd guess with our model we'll be closer to 400 and looking for real estate in constrained markets by August. Stock price will explode if Spirit becomes a predator.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3061277)

are you good at serving beverages, dealing with customers, and complaining if a flight is 6 minutes longer than planned? If so, I found your alternative job.

I was hoping they would let me run the brothel that was exposed in a crashpad in IAH

Quote:

Originally Posted by RemoveB4flght (Post 3061669)

If we have 2/3rds of the the fleet flying at near full loads by the end of the summer, that positive of a trend would definitely not indicate furloughs, and may even have us reconsider pushing deliveries.

We aren’t waiting out the economy, we are waiting out groupthink and mass psychology. Similar to that scene in the movie Jaws when everyone is on the beach afraid to go swimming until the first people decide to risk it.

I remember 2007 the big scare of toys, tools, personal products, etc. from Chy-na possibly having lead paint. That Xmas season was a disaster for retailers, and there was the big “Buy American” push. Been to Harbor Freight lately?

Consumer confidence is difficult to predict, but as soon as people see friends/family/neighbors on a cheap holiday without catching the ‘Rona the pendulum can start swinging the other way quick.

The next few weeks should give some insight as people start poking their heads out and the dreaded 2nd wave doesn’t materialize.

I don’t disagree on most points and am hoping for the best but 2/3 of our previous flying doesn’t require 3/3 of our pilots going into the school year which is already the slowest time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by articwenger (Post 3061754)

I was hoping they would let me run the brothel that was exposed in a crashpad in IAH

Only if you promise to pistol whip the clientele when they get unruly

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qotsaautopilot (Post 3061785)

I don’t disagree on most points and am hoping for the best but 2/3 of our previous flying doesn’t require 3/3 of our pilots going into the school year which is already the slowest time.

But it costs money to downgrade and upgrade the CAs so the company would need to forecast crew on the street for 6-9 months otherwise a furlough is a bit cost prohibitive. I'd be happy with 2/3 and growth.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SlimBob (Post 3061826)

6-9 months from Oct 1 sounds exactly like summer 2021... right about when most are hoping things show a semblance of being normal.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SlimBob (Post 3061826)

The downside of having a single type rating fleet in lean times is that training costs of furloughing are also much less than at an airline where furloughs mean that people currently flying 787s must be retrained to fly A220s.

The upside, however, is that if NK management tried to aggressively go after domestic market share they could probably be successful since the costs for the Big Three can only go up as they downsize and furlough their cheapest and most productive personnel. That appears to be the tactic WN intends to try, despite being constrained by an older fleet and the continued grounding of the MAX.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qotsaautopilot (Post 3061785)

I don’t disagree on most points and am hoping for the best but 2/3 of our previous flying doesn’t require 3/3 of our pilots going into the school year which is already the slowest time.

You’re assuming 2/3 capacity and then plateau.

If we are at 2/3 and mostly full (as was the example used in the post I replying to) by the end of the summer, from where we are today that trend would show we would be adding back routes and frequencies at too steady of a clip into the winter to justify a furlough. Even if we were slightly over staffed at that point, VIL would be a better option.

Bleeding money is a concern, but we also don’t want to hinder our own recovery with a short term furlough if the trend is very positive.

These next few weeks should reveal a lot

To downgrade is only a PC from the right seat. Not much cost there. Then to go back to the left later on, a requal is easy, again, not much cost there. It’s not like you’d need IOE again or a full initial type course

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimdunbar (Post 3061874)

Actually, if you downgrade, and subsequently upgrade again, you’ll likely need a line check before being cut loose. At my last airline they required a minimum of like 10 hours and a line check to requal as a Captain.