Training
05-22-2020 | 06:56 AM
#61
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 339
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From: A320 For Your Health
I completely agree. I feel like I’ve been one of the only few to tell everyone to “chill the F out” When things when to virtually 0. Same happened in China and it was coming back.
Now we are seeing very good signs here, this past week, and I don’t think it’s going to slow down.
The fact TC said we are adding flying in June that they didn’t even have on their radar 30 days ago tells you a hell of a lot about where things are headed.
318K screened yesterday. ORD is even busier this morning on my commute home then yesterday. Won’t be shocked at all to have it climb above 350k at some point this weekend.
Have friends at all of the Big 3. All are adding flying in June. AA is even taking some 73s back out if storage.
There’s talk of us doing 200-400 a day by July. That wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. I think July 4 - Labor Day is going to surprise a lot of the negative “the world is over along with our career” types.
Now we are seeing very good signs here, this past week, and I don’t think it’s going to slow down.
The fact TC said we are adding flying in June that they didn’t even have on their radar 30 days ago tells you a hell of a lot about where things are headed.
318K screened yesterday. ORD is even busier this morning on my commute home then yesterday. Won’t be shocked at all to have it climb above 350k at some point this weekend.
Have friends at all of the Big 3. All are adding flying in June. AA is even taking some 73s back out if storage.
There’s talk of us doing 200-400 a day by July. That wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. I think July 4 - Labor Day is going to surprise a lot of the negative “the world is over along with our career” types.
It appears to me the rebound will continue to compound as it has, and 200-400 by July is pretty accurate imo. I'd guess with our model we'll be closer to 400 and looking for real estate in constrained markets by August. Stock price will explode if Spirit becomes a predator.
05-22-2020 | 07:10 AM
#62
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 32
Likes: 0
05-22-2020 | 07:53 AM
#63
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,603
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If we have 2/3rds of the the fleet flying at near full loads by the end of the summer, that positive of a trend would definitely not indicate furloughs, and may even have us reconsider pushing deliveries.
We aren’t waiting out the economy, we are waiting out groupthink and mass psychology. Similar to that scene in the movie Jaws when everyone is on the beach afraid to go swimming until the first people decide to risk it.
I remember 2007 the big scare of toys, tools, personal products, etc. from Chy-na possibly having lead paint. That Xmas season was a disaster for retailers, and there was the big “Buy American” push. Been to Harbor Freight lately?
Consumer confidence is difficult to predict, but as soon as people see friends/family/neighbors on a cheap holiday without catching the ‘Rona the pendulum can start swinging the other way quick.
The next few weeks should give some insight as people start poking their heads out and the dreaded 2nd wave doesn’t materialize.
We aren’t waiting out the economy, we are waiting out groupthink and mass psychology. Similar to that scene in the movie Jaws when everyone is on the beach afraid to go swimming until the first people decide to risk it.
I remember 2007 the big scare of toys, tools, personal products, etc. from Chy-na possibly having lead paint. That Xmas season was a disaster for retailers, and there was the big “Buy American” push. Been to Harbor Freight lately?
Consumer confidence is difficult to predict, but as soon as people see friends/family/neighbors on a cheap holiday without catching the ‘Rona the pendulum can start swinging the other way quick.
The next few weeks should give some insight as people start poking their heads out and the dreaded 2nd wave doesn’t materialize.
05-22-2020 | 09:25 AM
#65
Line Holder
Joined: Nov 2019
Posts: 236
Likes: 1
But it costs money to downgrade and upgrade the CAs so the company would need to forecast crew on the street for 6-9 months otherwise a furlough is a bit cost prohibitive. I'd be happy with 2/3 and growth.
05-22-2020 | 09:29 AM
#66
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 418
Likes: 0
6-9 months from Oct 1 sounds exactly like summer 2021... right about when most are hoping things show a semblance of being normal.
05-22-2020 | 10:17 AM
#67
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,249
Likes: 257
The upside, however, is that if NK management tried to aggressively go after domestic market share they could probably be successful since the costs for the Big Three can only go up as they downsize and furlough their cheapest and most productive personnel. That appears to be the tactic WN intends to try, despite being constrained by an older fleet and the continued grounding of the MAX.
05-22-2020 | 10:25 AM
#68
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 770
Likes: 0
If we are at 2/3 and mostly full (as was the example used in the post I replying to) by the end of the summer, from where we are today that trend would show we would be adding back routes and frequencies at too steady of a clip into the winter to justify a furlough. Even if we were slightly over staffed at that point, VIL would be a better option.
Bleeding money is a concern, but we also don’t want to hinder our own recovery with a short term furlough if the trend is very positive.
These next few weeks should reveal a lot
05-22-2020 | 12:38 PM
#70
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,691
Likes: 21
From: 60’s Tech, Right
Actually, if you downgrade, and subsequently upgrade again, you’ll likely need a line check before being cut loose. At my last airline they required a minimum of like 10 hours and a line check to requal as a Captain.
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