He might've been a bit harsh... But the ULCCs have found a niche market avoiding the hub & spoke system and its costs. Congrats on the business model - seriously. Now we find ourselves in a situation where the hub & spoke system s actually beneficial. How does that old saying go? Live by the sword, die by the sword?

BTW I don't mean "die by the sword" literally for your company. I think we ALL benefit if we keep our wages high and unions strong. Traditional thought is that any one of the big 4 in BK will put incredible downward pressure on everyone of us. Since you guys secured your recent contractual gains I think it's fair to include you in that group (as well as Alaska & Frontier). We all need to be rooting for each other!

 

I don’t see that we took it yet. Just that our request for exemptions got denied.

 

He’s not a bit harsh. He’s a butt hurt AA pilot that tries to crap on ULCC’s, and only succeeds in revealing his tiny, insecure member.

Hub and spoke will work spectacularly for about 2-3 more months, and then ULCC’s will pick back up first because of their price structure and demographics they serve while most legacies struggle on a bit longer waiting for the business traveller and international flying to return.

Good luck to all of us in this. Even to FO furlough bait above.

 

The reality is that no one airline is “safe” or “better” than another right now as no one knows how this will play out. That being said everyone in the bottom 1/3 of any airline better be thinking about what happens when (if) furloughs happen.


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Nothing will work spectacularly in the next few months.

It's just a guess that the ULCCs will pick back up first - a guess based on many assumptions that may not be valid. We're in uncharted territory and some of the companies have management teams that may not be predictable since we haven't seen them operate in a downturn. I guess we'll all watch together 😳.

 

I agree. We’re all hosed at this juncture, but the ULCC’s are probably in a good spot if some semblance of normalcy returns by the end of the summer. No one’s in a good spot if that fails to occur.

Regardless, I’m not taking it upon myself to talk ****** to other pilots on their sub forum as though they’re the reason a certain legacy continues to camp out in the bottom rung of airline performance.

 

Yup. It’ll be ugly and popcorn worthy all at once. The only saving grace for the ULCC’s is that they can probably tread water at 50% load factors. Probably. And that’s about all I’d hope for by October.

 

It's becoming clear that domestic leisure travel will be the first to make a comeback. It will look different as passengers might be required to wear masks and other mitigation tactics, but the general public will be okay with a set amount of risk (more and more people are getting out and about here in "high risk" FL). Hopefully international travel won't be too far behind, but that is going to largely depend on whatever limiting policies remain in specific countries.

Corporate travel, however, is going to take a hit until we have an effective vaccine. Fortunately that doesn't affect us here at Spirit, but the legacies are going to be hurting for awhile. Facebook just announced no more large events thru June 2021.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/zuck...june-2021.html

For the foreseeable future, I think this is going to become the new normal for corporate America. The social justice warriors will create some kind of social responsibility campaign and pressure large companies to limit travel and large gatherings which are not absolutely required. Large companies will have a gun held to their head and be forced to either participate or face mass amounts of public scrutiny and boycotts, much like we see with the alphabet people every June and the inundation of pink every October. I don't think it will be permanent but it will likely prevail in the interim until we get a vaccine.

 

Leisure travel as in road trip to Grandma's.

Buy Goodyear stock...

 

Maybe if it were 1980’s. We live in a pop tart, I want it now society. People will visit grandma for the first time in months, but very many will also be looking to take 2-3 day get aways after being on house arrest.

Also, grandma doesn’t always live a short drive away, and $29 tickets will win out over 8 hours of extra fam time in the car.

Its not a normal recession. Many jobs will come back relatively quickly, and people will use credit after being shut in for several months. What happens after that initial surge remains to be seen. Probably a more sluggish recovery than we’d all like, but this isn’t 10 years of prolonged financial ruin.