this is the most accurate thing I may have ever read on APC, lol. Nailed it

There are always outliers.

Plane Coffee

As a Ph.D. and an airline pilot, I would remind all my colleagues of the old saying, “it is better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.”

I think I took a class from you.

It was refreshing.

Plane Coffee

I remember when I was younger my grandpa saying that the college degrees were:

BS- Bull Sh-t
MS- More Sh-t
PhD- Piled High and Deep

We always just laughed and thought he was a little bit crazy, but as I get older I realize more and more that he may have actually been on to something.

Except for the "There" part, you mean?

;)

What a joke. That original model assumed 2-3 million deaths if we did nothing. Reality is, we as a population wouldn't have done nothing. We could have simply worn masks, been more careful with hand washing, not touching the face, and social distancing to the extent practicaly, and that 2-3 millin death number goes out the window. Instead, we used his model and shut down an economy of trillions.

I really hope when this is all said, done, and over, that there is a major investigative report that looks at the virus, its origination, and how WE reacted to it. Far too many people will look back and say "see we made a difference it was only 400k dead instead of 2-3 million." The question that needs to be answered is if that model was really accurate to begin with and how many deaths would we have had if we just let simple practices take place (in previous paragraph) and kept the economy open, except maybe the epicenter hotspot like NYC.

Shutting the economy has other consequences. Police across the country have reported they have far less child abuse calls. Many of them come from schools and daycare centers. With those closed, kids are still being abused, but now not being reported. Doctors in the ER are concerned the stroke and heart patients have stopped coming. These people will die soon since their fear of Covid19 kept them home and didn't address their heart/brain condition. And once they die, it'll probably be counted as a Covid death.

It's all gotten so out of hand. Virus deaths aren't even virus deaths but still being counted as such. OTOH, you have real risks and lives in danger that aren't getting help because of the fear response to Covid.

six. Six pure covid deaths.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...navirus-deaths

this has nothing to do with safety.

What the heck it OTOH now?

If you have diabetes and get run over by a bus, its the bus that killed you.

Arguing that we should only count 6 of those deaths in San Diego is incredibly disingenuous.

that’s apples to oranges. Having diabetes doesn’t exacerbate a bus. Making a comparison like that is disingenuous

having diabetes, obesity, heart disease, COPD etc is proven to exacerbate covid.

You stop that rationality, now! This is a cauldron for panic, hysteria, and conspiracies ONLY!

Plane Coffee

Obviously preexisting conditions exacerbate covid.

Pretending that only 6 people died of Covid is just ridiculous. Go talk to the family member of someone who has died of Covid and tell them about your little theory.

There will never be a true consensus over how many people in the US have died of Covid. The reporting standards aren't strict or prescriptive enough and different organizations define cause of death in different ways.This is one of the downsides of a sprawling privatized and Balkanized heath care system.
'Excess deaths' will be telling. In18 months; the difference between statically expected deaths and absolute deaths will paint a clearer picture of the diseases true impact to society.
There is strong indication that Covid has been hastening the demise of the weak; and that will be reflected in excess deaths.
If less people die than expected in 6 months, because they we're 'cleared out' by covid, those numbers will be captured.
We'll likely see that Covid caused a huge number of 'early deaths', but the expected deaths won't be nearly as high.
Obviously; any 'early death' hastened by the disease is tragic, and any definition of 'early' is subjective, biology & statistics are science.

NOT PC - skip this post if you need Politically correct statements

Not necessarily! I saw my mother die of complications from decades of diabetes. The last couple years were horrendous, and the last few months were in and out of ICUs. It was my own mother - and if she had died of Corona - I would have been livid - because I was emotionally vested. However, rationally, looking back, hindsight, Monday morning etc. - It may have been a kinder outcome.

Did they all get hit by a bus?

Plane Coffee

On the other hand, if someone had stage four pancreatic cancer with liver, lung, and brain metastases , and caught a cold and died, blaming it on the cold wouldn’t exactly be reasonable either.

Out of 333 million Americans there are an awful lot that are walking around with one foot in the grave and the other on a cake of soap. No possible societal actions we could do can keep these people alive very long.

I fully expect that if Biden wins Nov 3rd, the media will change the way they cover Covid19. And even moreso after inauguration.

I'm sorry for the difficult time both of you clearly had. Frankly your experience goes towards a voluntary death option. But I'm European we have that discussion in public.... I certainly wound want suffer like that..

Everyone’s so worried about deciding who died of covid that you missed the good news. We’re going to be running 80 flights a day now instead of 50! For those bad at math we need to be running around 375 a day to just “only” furlough half our pilots come October.


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Outsider of course, has Spirit said anything yet? Eg, any displacement bid, vacancy, etc?

Based on the last flight ops town hall, aircraft are being rotated from being parked and operating, with nothing in long term storage. We will defer some orders next year. I don't think we will find out if there will be displacements until July-August. The latest vacancy is only for those in training or have upcoming class dates. I'm not going to speculate, since it's too early to tell what will happen in the next few months with the demands of travel.

umm yeah it doesn’t work that way...

Very true my numbers are no doubt off, my point was everyone should be concerned about what’s going on here. Sure we increased to 80 flights a day but that’s not enough flights to keep most of us employed.


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Or more importantly, the airline in business for long.

Very good point.


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I don’t think anyone disagrees with you. But, increasing flights is a step in the right direction. We’re not magically going to go from 50-700 in a single month. It will be a gradual thing, hopefully we’ll see demand keep increasing and have a bigger increase in July/August.

Agreed. I’d rather be furloughed for years than have this place going under, or have the pilot group taking concessions if you ask me.

Absolutely agree

Five weeks post-bottom, 22% average weekly throughput growth. Did not solve for the probability of continuing averages, only averages. With current 22% weekly passenger growth, industry will hit 50% of 2019 sometime in mid to late July, this is of course barring any major negative disease trends. Given the lack of international flights for the foreseeable future, i wonder how far these numbers can actually go, and will the numbers skew more heavily toward WN and NK initially?

what percentage of our 700 ish flights are international

15ish.........

during the flight ops town hall. I thought i heard it was 15%

Man it’s a shame reserves can’t participate in daily open time.

Most thought they'd never be back on reserve.

Oooops.🤣

I’ve been saying since this all went down that the MOUs should have allowed reserves to drop and pick up open time. For the Orlando reserve grid on the CA side the lowest day of net reserves is 62. No reason they shouldn’t be able to drop.

Of course there's a reason, and 70% of the pilot group approved of it.

There's no reason in having a CBA if we're going to amend it every month.

We’re not amending the CBA “every month” we’re amending it one time to make sense of this nonsense where 13 out of 250+ get to hold lines and everyone else has no opportunity to make extra money whatsoever, even if they do manage to fly...

This is a once in a hundred years event, hardly an “every month” type of MOU.

winner winner chicken dinner.

Agreed, but there’s only so much flying the few lineholder a can do. So, reserves will get some of it.