Smaller airline and furloughs likely IMHO. Although the tone of the email didn’t really shock me or make me nervous . I feel I knew it was coming I guess. With spike in cases and the usual slow months of September/October on the horizon I assumed July was just going to be one off. The analysts and CEOs keep saying 2-3 year timeframe for a recovery in their guestimation. There will be some pain for a while. And the glory days are over for a while . But I still wouldn’t want to be anywhere else. we will make it to the other side of this.

 

What's interesting is if you go on Spirit's site. The schedule / avalible flights paints a different picture for August. It seems there's more available flights than July. If they are planing on having the same schedule in August as the same at the end of June. They'll probably need to cancel 250-300 flights a day for August.

 

Just curious how you came up with that number?? (It’s the same number I came up with...)

 

Just a calculated guess. It’s a round number that approximates 20% of our staffing.

 

most people have no clue - until they end up on reserve and realize how bad it is - you are correct on the tone and forecast

 

People still think we aren’t going to furlough any? Maybe I’m pessimistic, but I don’t see not furloughing as a possibility. Hey, maybe (and hopefully because I’m at the bottom) I’m wrong.

 

If 2500 is correct then Delta is planning a 17 percent pilot reduction. Id like to think we're a lower number than that.

No concessions. If they are gonna furlough anyway, shareholders don't need any other gifts.

 

I read the email. People have been psycho analyzing the tone of every MEC email since this has begun. I remember in May an email came out and talked about a “glimmer of hope” that demand was coming back. Then it ended with the timeline of when furlough notices would go out and everyone lost it.

We all need to be provided with far more information than a super vague “July isn’t looking as good as we hoped”. Well what exactly has happened? Right now everything is up for assumption and quite frankly, until I see actual numbers, I’m not going to waste that much energy on what may or may not happen, especially given how things change every week or less.

A couple days ago it was rumored we were canceling tons of July flights. Someone in the base chat compiled the entire month on CrewTrac and very little was canceled or changed. Mainly just Intl markets.

Someone above posted they went online and claim we are selling tickets on even more (or equal) the number of flights for August. But then you’ll hear how we are dropping to 220 flights a day in August? Well which is it?

If a majority of our tickets are being sold 1-2 weeks out, it is still too early to know what really is going to happen in July.

7-10 days ago I read the P2P transcript. There was a little nugget in there that said that, at this moment in time, Spirit was not planning on option 3 happening (right sizing). Of course things can change, but still.

I know cases are picking up. I’m well aware. It’s hard to know what’s real anymore. I’ve read that some states are counting positive antibodies tests as positive cases now.

Sure some probably are canceling, but I’ll stand behind that for everyone that does there are others will take their place. The media doesn’t help in this, but they have become major hypocrites the last couple weeks.

We will know for sure by the end of the month and into August what really happens.

 

Anyone who thinks we won't furlough at this point is delusional.

 

this post isn’t gonna age well bro - we can revisit in a few days when the bids are out