This! Add parking 319’s, possible order deferment and new hire upgrade time is anyones guess.

Who knows what’s going to happen in this economic $hit storm we’re in?

This.
Even if we keep the fast upgrade, it’s because our reserve is “industry leading” (if you are a manager).

I (FO) have had at least one master list (junior man) call every day this week. Meanwhile, every captain I talk to says they haven't been called for a premium trip in months, sometimes years.

Its not looking good for upgrades.

This 100%. I have multiple calls every day and one time this week, it was a 3 min voice message listing all the flights they had open for the x list. I couldn't believe it. They can preach all they want that we dont have an attrition/hiring problem but at least in bases that dont sit on a coastline, they are understaffed FO side.

I ask for upgrade time and all I read is people talking about a recession that doesn’t exist and complains about new airplanes lol. Am I the only one that knows about 20.000 mandatory retirements coming up? Lol

Our retirement issue is not nearly as significant as most other places.

In regards to your question it’s really hard to pin down right now as we have all but stopped upgrades for the last year. When you add in merger issues, a displacement bid that happened but then reverted, a questionable economy etc it makes it tough.

Best educated guess is we will see upgrades north of 5 years this summer. Will that improve or get worse just has too many variables right now.

We are only upgrading 10 a month. Jr captain is somewhere around summer 2018 thereabouts. Not many retirements here.

That's the point guy.

20,000 retirements at other airlines means our upgrade time will go up into infinity.

Also, I wish I could see the look on your face in the near future when you realize your in a recession.

Based on current retirement/attrition/merger I forecast 10 years.

Hey guys Michael Burry is in the chat!
How does 20,000 retirements at other airlines translate into upgrade time up into infinity at Spirit? Can you explain that non sense statement Mike?