Originally Posted by E6BAV8R (Post 3454950)

Disagreements or not, thank you for saying something that contributes to an actual and honest discussion.

We all know this hiring environment isn't going to last for the longer term, but I'm not sure who to believe. Robin, and any CEO, can say whatever they want, but in reality it doesn't really matter. If the merger got approved next month, he can redact all of that and do whatever he wants and there is no harm no foul. In my opinion, it's just hard to believe. If what Robin says is true, than it will be great for Spirit and JB both, but if (or when, or how bad) the economy tanks, they could easily just take Spirit's new planes and all their orders and replace JB's older fleets and get brand new airplanes and weather the storm doing the exact same thing they've been doing, and blame base closers on the economy.

For Spirit pilots, I think it'll really come down to the JCBA. Yes, Spirit pilots want to make more money (as everyone does), but what will the quality of life cost; with regards to base closures? I personally would much rather live in base than make another $20/hr than having to commute the rest of my career. And if JB does actually start doing base closers after the merger, unless the money is obscene, you will certainly see a mass exodus from Spirit pilots.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 3455602)

I have seen ZERO evidence of JB backing down against AA anywhere in the country outside the NEA. In fact they are building LAX and opened an aggressive operation out of MIA entirely outside the NEA, and after the NEA was announced.

JB is not subservient to AA.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 3455605)

Spend $4 billion dollars to replace some older airplanes, most of which aren't that old?

JB wants to be a national airline. They've told us all, and their shareholders as much. That's the plan, and closing all those bases is counter to the plan and absolutely prohibitively expensive with our contract, cascading training events, etc... They can't even figure out how to close MCO E190 because it's too expensive for them, so they will wait until they have to and hope enough guys bud off voluntarily to the A320/A220. Airlines don't spend $4 billion to shrink to profitability, it doesn't work like that.

Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo (Post 3455671)

I agree. And just the simple fact of you cant run a national airline with bases/hubs on one coast, and a few on the other coast. There is a reason why large airlines have bases in north/south/east/west. Have fun with IROP recovery when 2/3rd of you pilots are on an east coast LDT and the rest are a 5 hour transcon away.

The people saying AA will make JBlu close DFW most likely are AA pilots, way overestimating the scary AA. JBLU is not looking to make these moves$ to carry AA's shine box. AA will have their hands full if/when SWA decides to come over to DFW in a few years once the Wright Amendment is fully exhausted with its restrictions.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 3455605)

Spend $4 billion dollars to replace some older airplanes, most of which aren't that old?

JB wants to be a national airline. They've told us all, and their shareholders as much. That's the plan, and closing all those bases is counter to the plan and absolutely prohibitively expensive with our contract, cascading training events, etc... They can't even figure out how to close MCO E190 because it's too expensive for them, so they will wait until they have to and hope enough guys bud off voluntarily to the A320/A220. Airlines don't spend $4 billion to shrink to profitability, it doesn't work like that.

Originally Posted by FNGFO (Post 3455766)

The crew members in Florida, for example, can sit pat because their bases aren’t going anywhere. They’re just swapping paint and pilot shirts.

Originally Posted by FahQ2 (Post 3455775)

That’s assuming that B6 intends to grow FLL and MCO by the roughly half of NK pilots currently based there. Both are senior bases for JetBlue. It could be argued that bottom seniority half of Florida based pilots are just as likely to become commuters as the mid continent bases on the bubble currently

Originally Posted by FNGFO (Post 3455811)

I really don’t think B6, or F9 for that matter, wants to give up much in what would be new fortress hubs. I’m sure some of the flying, planes and crews would be shifted around, but those bases aren’t going anywhere. I could very easily see one or two mid continent bases being eliminated. I could be wrong, but none of the other major airlines have Houston, Dallas, O’Hare and Detroit as bases though most have a mixture of a few. Somebody is likely on the chopping block.

There’s an interesting dynamic here where neither company probably wants to advertise future planning and usage, but at the same time they have such attrition issues that they need to advertise such to stem the tide and give crew members some certainty moving forward.

Originally Posted by FahQ2 (Post 3455828)

I never said those bases would close, and would most likely grow larger than current B6 staffing, however there is significant overlap on many routes. Nearly every B6/NK flight going south practically fly in formation. Does that translate to double daily demand, or a couple extra frequencies a week?

I’m also not saying they all will get shipped off to JFK/BOS either. My point was that there is no guarantee that the 500ish NK pilots in MCO or 1000ish NK pilots in FLL can all sleep comfortably knowing they are in no danger of becoming commuters.

Originally Posted by JulesWinfield (Post 3455834)

Seems like if we’re both flying full, there’s no reason to reduce our flying. The biggest problem at the ULCC level is the lack of frequency in routes. No idea if JetBlue has these issues, but I imagine they do.