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LoopsMcDoops 07-06-2022 12:35 PM

The biggest problem with NK in places like DFW/DTW/ORD (which we are currently reducing) is that NK simply cannot demand a higher priced ticket. Take DFW for example, AA will simply closely match our pricing on routes we both operate. AA can do this both as a loss leader and as a subsidy where those losses can be made up somewhere else in their system. AA calls NK "The Weed" at their HQs. As a passenger shopping for a fare, when the pricing on a third party site has AA and NK closely priced, almost always a person is going to choose AA. Whether or not their product really is that much better than ours, and we know its not necessarily, a regular everyday pax would prefer travel on AA.

So where does this put NK in big metro area airports where legacy competition exist? The way to fill the plane is to lower the price. It comes as no surprise that NK would simply rather NOT compete with a legacy or larger airline where they don't have to. So we do legs that legacies either do not serve or are underserved.

SW and B6 do not have the same issue. They both have products that consumers view in a positive light. They can demand a higher ticket price and people will fly them. SW has the advantage of controlling more markets than any other airline, by far. SW has created economies of scale all over the US along with tremendous barriers to entry in most of those markets. These economic principles are the exact reason why F9 and B6 covet NK. I think B6 converts better than F9 because the product is better. Cheap isn't always best, certainly not in lowering ticket prices from the top 4.

It's unfortunate, but it appears that the large metro markets that we have bases will continue to see reduced flying and reduced crews to match. It's just a different model our company is adapting to. Sadly.

turbojet28 07-06-2022 12:51 PM

I’ve asked before and no one really answered. Are the actual daily departures and/or block hours operated out of DTW/ORD/DFW being reduced? Or was the planned displacement a result of these domiciles having served as “stockpile” bases and now that the airline declared its intention to operate with more turns and 2-day trips, it just makes more sense to redistribute crews based on the new theory of pairing construction?

FNGFO 07-06-2022 01:10 PM


Originally Posted by FahQ2 (Post 3455828)
I never said those bases would close, and would most likely grow larger than current B6 staffing, however there is significant overlap on many routes. Nearly every B6/NK flight going south practically fly in formation. Does that translate to double daily demand, or a couple extra frequencies a week?

I’m also not saying they all will get shipped off to JFK/BOS either. My point was that there is no guarantee that the 500ish NK pilots in MCO or 1000ish NK pilots in FLL can all sleep comfortably knowing they are in no danger of becoming commuters.

Theres valid points here, but the differences is that most of those crew members need not fear being displaced whereas everyone at a closed base is now a permanent commuter or uprooting their lives. Junior people at any base probably need to be aware of their precarious position in a merger, but then there’s fences and other things that might mitigate issues for a few years at least.

Bluedriver 07-06-2022 02:41 PM


Originally Posted by FahQ2 (Post 3455771)
While shrink to profitability is not the end game, some deadloss will be expected. Much of the success will hinge on the transition program. Three thousand NK pilots will have to go through some form of SOP transition course or possibly 220 type and planes painted, cabin retrofit, wifi/tv etc. You guys have deliveries which can be crewed with first groups of NK transitions, but would they dare run uncoverted yellow planes on B6 routes? If not what is the cost of 200 planes and thousands of pilots idle for however many months. Will hiring be slowed or halted for a period of time? (Same for FAs, ground and support staff)

Speculation of course, but if B6 management is smarter than you guys claim they are over on the blue board, it would seem logical they would be running numbers to determine if a certain amount of attrition during the transition period would actually be beneficial.

Yes, I believe all Spirit planes will continue to operate normally. They will have an aircraft retrofit line where 5-10 planes at a time are down for retrofitting. Yellow, they fly. Blue, they fly.

I would imagine they start changing SOP at Spirit training with SOP changes being included in distance learning modules and Spirit recurrent. They aren't gonna send everyone through a new ground school or anything ridiculous like that, I wouldn't think...

Frankly JB couldn't afford to service the SAVE acquisition debt if they parked the yellow airplanes until retrofitting is done, they will fly... Website will probably have a disclaimer when booking certain flights that the plane isn't yet up to the full JetBlue standard during the transition.

DEM1933 07-06-2022 03:37 PM


Originally Posted by turbojet28 (Post 3455856)
I’ve asked before and no one really answered. Are the actual daily departures and/or block hours operated out of DTW/ORD/DFW being reduced? Or was the planned displacement a result of these domiciles having served as “stockpile” bases and now that the airline declared its intention to operate with more turns and 2-day trips, it just makes more sense to redistribute crews based on the new theory of pairing construction?

Due to attrition levels they can't staff ATL and eventually IAH by normal means. So to some extent the reductions are intended to get the staffing numbers up for these new domiciles quickly, which is an apparent priority.

Fah2 07-06-2022 04:59 PM


Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 3455904)
Yes, I believe all Spirit planes will continue to operate normally. They will have an aircraft retrofit line where 5-10 planes at a time are down for retrofitting. Yellow, they fly. Blue, they fly.

I would imagine they start changing SOP at Spirit training with SOP changes being included in distance learning modules and Spirit recurrent. They aren't gonna send everyone through a new ground school or anything ridiculous like that, I wouldn't think...

Frankly JB couldn't afford to service the SAVE acquisition debt if they parked the yellow airplanes until retrofitting is done, they will fly... Website will probably have a disclaimer when booking certain flights that the plane isn't yet up to the full JetBlue standard during the transition.

While running the planes with a disclaimer makes the most financial sense, that creates all manner of scheduling and customer service nightmares when maintenance or weather requires a blue to yellow tail swap. I can already see the customer service commenters cracking their knuckles.

I didn’t expect a full JetBlue ground school, most likely distance learning for SOPs, but operating under a B6 operating certificate would most likely require sims with B6, maybe some IOE type line operation checkout.

It would save a lot of headaches if that could be started before the merger, but not sure it’s feasible. Obviously compensation is an issue and training dept costs. Never been through a merger personally, maybe others who have can give some insight.

I suppose if they buy Spirit they also buy the certificate and could still run as two airlines that gradually blend down to one, but that creates headaches or it’s own, not to mention how and where each NK pilot bids over.

All above my pay grade and it’s currently miller time…

SSlow 07-06-2022 06:21 PM


Originally Posted by LoopsMcDoops (Post 3455846)
It's unfortunate, but it appears that the large metro markets that we have bases will continue to see reduced flying and reduced crews to match. It's just a different model our company is adapting to. Sadly.

Except for IAH and ATL. My understanding is that DFW's main problem is gate space. Clearly we can compete with the legacies as we are putting in two new crew bases in large metro areas that are hubs for the legacies.

Halon1211 07-06-2022 06:48 PM


Originally Posted by SSlow (Post 3456026)
Except for IAH and ATL. My understanding is that DFW's main problem is gate space.


You must of never been to DFW between the hours of 11AM and 4PM, it’s a ghost town for yellow planes.

…gate space in DFW is not the issue.

symbian simian 07-07-2022 03:20 AM


Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 3455904)
Yes, I believe all Spirit planes will continue to operate normally. They will have an aircraft retrofit line where 5-10 planes at a time are down for retrofitting. Yellow, they fly. Blue, they fly.

I would imagine they start changing SOP at Spirit training with SOP changes being included in distance learning modules and Spirit recurrent. They aren't gonna send everyone through a new ground school or anything ridiculous like that, I wouldn't think...

Frankly JB couldn't afford to service the SAVE acquisition debt if they parked the yellow airplanes until retrofitting is done, they will fly... Website will probably have a disclaimer when booking certain flights that the plane isn't yet up to the full JetBlue standard during the transition.

Trying to find out if required, but all Airtran pilots went through full SWA new hire training. I would not be surprised if the same happens here.

Bluedriver 07-07-2022 04:21 AM


Originally Posted by symbian simian (Post 3456120)
Trying to find out if required, but all Airtran pilots went through full SWA new hire training. I would not be surprised if the same happens here.

Also not sure I guess. Or was that a culture-indoctrination decision?


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