Not trying to scare anyone. For those wanting to go a legacy - or anywhere else - more power to them. Hope they find happiness there while they increase the seniority of those behind them by leaving and increase the leverage of everyone who does stay. A rising tide lifts all boats.

 

And that's the rub. You guys have predicted 20 of the last 2 downturns
and layoffs. Of course it's coming. day. Keep crying wolf.

 

Im not crying anything. I have been part of two of them. Im informed. Maybe slow down happens, Maybe it doesnt. The reality is that it may, and that it has in the last. Preparation is built from studying history. But when you're only 28 years old, you've got zero perspective. You're still fresh to the workforce.

 

Absolutely not true. United has taken 70 new planes in the last 12 months and parked 3 early 90's Airbus planes. We have 35 more MAX planes being delivered in 2023 still with 16 A-321 NEOs. The 787s start being delivered in 2023 with 1 a month until the end of 2024 and then it goes to 2 a month for 85 months. The 787s will replace about 40 767s total with about 160 growth 787s.

United is expecting 150 aircraft deliveries in 2024 and they want to hire 4,000 but probably won't be able to. They think they can do 300 new hires a month maximum.

United has hired 2,500 pilots in the last 12 months and they are finishing up a new sim building with 12 more simulators because of the training ramp-up. The 3/5 airframe number is BS and doesn't exist. United Fleet Website is public and shows all the deliveries and airframes being parked. Planes are being delivered so quickly we still have 800+ unfilled vacancies on each monthly bid, with 50-80 unfilled Captain on each one.

 

If the above is true (Nobody knows what will be replacement or not), is United going to be way over their skis? This screams over capacity, no.?

 

Not so much as it screams pilot shortage with insufficient incentive for upgrade. It’s already hit the regionals. No reason to believe the majors would somehow be immune. With increased salaries for the senior FOs fewer seem willing to take the QOL hit of becoming the bottom of a new seniority list.

 

Exactly.

2008 alone left an ugly scar on a lot of us, especially those of us who were in our 20s and new to the industry while trying to establish some sort of stability in life. I don't think any of us forgot just how ugly and bleak things became.

 

Quite the opposite.
On the pilot side, the floor for lines were running in the high 70s to low 80s for many BESs this last summer. They are short on pilots and United won't reach peak retirements for another few years; currently about 400 pilot retirements a year. Compare that with NK/F9/etc retirements they're a slow trickle for the next two decades. United is also upguaging former RJ routes to mainline which increases the need for mainline pilots.
On the passenger side, Q2's load factor was 86.4% with record profits.

Poor analysis. You guys are always trying to spin eveything at the legacies as bad things. It's very humorous to read the collective take on unfilled CA vacancies by those whose companies have very few CA vacancies.
Progression has been rapid since the end of Covid so any QOL hit is short lived. I'd attribute the unfilled CA vacancies more due to the fact that 1) the sheer volume of monthly CA vacancies, and 2) if one doesn't bid for an upgrade this month, they can next month or any other month.

 

And what do you expect from the merger prep and merger?

You can discuss hypotheticals as much as you like, but you are ignoring the very real upcoming multiyear merger pain.

 

I’m glad I was able to bring amusement to your humdrum life but I fail to see where I was trying to “spin” anything at the legacies as a bad thing. I said that there were aircraft parked for want of CAs at some legacies and regionals because if;
1. A pilot shortage
2. A reluctance of senior FOs to give up their seat seniority by upgrading. Both those issues give leverage to pilot groups for increased $ and better QOL in their next CBAs. Perhaps you consider that a “bad” thing. I certainly do not.

A rising tide lifts all boats, big and little.