Originally Posted by redhot (Post 3877738)

how many airplanes does spirit have on order? Would like to know what the potential growth is for the next 10 years. I know both companies have extended some of their deliveries out into next decade. I think F9 put 50 into next decade.

Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R (Post 3877699)

heres something I wrote up last year before we filed the BK. I changed some things now that we know some of the numbers more, updated it if you will. Of course it means absolutely nothing. Just numbers I counted and worked up on a long layover with nothing else to do. Take it for what it’s worth -

“”According to the FFTpilot page (numbers may not be entirely accurate but it’s what I have so they are what I’ll use) frontier has 157 airplanes and around 2215 pilots on property. End of 2025, frontier will have 178 planes.



Spirit has about 192 airplanes after selling the 23 CEOS that we sold last year. Spirit takes delivery of an additional 5 airplanes in 2025, so end of 2025 spirit has 197 airplanes. We have not seen a post furlough list of active pilots on property, but I’m going to guess high at around 3000 (I’m guessing more like 2900 or less but 3000 to be conservative)



Spirit runs about 16 pilots per plane, not sure how many frontier runs but with current math I’d say maybe 14 or so per plane.



Using the numbers I guess for spirits new seniority list, spirit / frontier combined has an active pilot list of about 5215 pilots.



at the end of 2025, spirit / frontier combined will have a fleet of about 375 airplanes.



375 airplanes at fifteen pilots per plane (average of F9 at 14 per plane and NK at 16 per plane is 5625 pilots. With a combined pilot list of 5215 pilots, looks like we’ll need more. Even if you calculate at 14 per plane, that’s 5250 pilots required to operate those airplanes. So when we are fully operational with all planes, we’re good.



Now, i know those numbers don’t take into consideration the grounded spirit airplanes. But it also doesn’t take into consideration any additional attrition. The airplane number that spirit is grounding is a very fluid number and hard to determine what it wlll be from day to day, but the number of grounded planes at any given time continues to reduce as time goes on.



if you take the worse case scenario numbers - frontiers 178 airplanes and if the number we were last given for spirit airframes are correct, an average of 40 ish down at one time. That’s 157 planes spirit until we get all the planes working again. that’s 335 airplanes combined spirit frontier at 14 pilots per plane is 4690 pilots. But like I say, the groundings are very fluid and is hard to predict. And could be on the downhill side of the slope before the companies are combined.



I know we have a LOT of more senior folks that will be leaving now that legacy hiring is ramping back up. It will certainly be interesting to see how things play out.





just the two cents from someone who has nothing better to do than to look at numbers and play with their iPhone calculator.””

Originally Posted by redhot (Post 3877738)

how many airplanes does spirit have on order? Would like to know what the potential growth is for the next 10 years. I know both companies have extended some of their deliveries out into next decade. I think F9 put 50 into next decade.

Originally Posted by Stayontarget (Post 3877908)

Those numbers all make sense.

Frontier order book goes until about mid 2031. Spirits order book starts growing again in about 2030. It’s a nice match up there.

F9 current fleet size plans
End of 2025-178
2026-191
2027-209
2028-227
2029-250
2030/31-284

All subject to change of course.

Originally Posted by gonyon (Post 3877928)

so combined fleet 20230 would be in the neighborhood of 500-550 planes. 7500-8000 pilots group. Not bad not bad.

hopefully they would be able to find markets for that amount of ulcc product in the us. They will definitely need to tweet the product beyond blocked middle seats.

Originally Posted by Hedley (Post 3877948)

If a merger does happen, there is no guarantee that the combined entity will equal the sum of the two parts. Assets could be shed to meet reduced demand, or growth could occur to meet increased demand. I'd agree about having to significantly improve the product to successfully compete against the legacies. A bigger version of what is currently being offered won't work. There is a demand for a low cost product, just as there is a demand for legacy offerings, but no one knows how that balance will work out.

Originally Posted by Hedley (Post 3877948)

If a merger does happen, there is no guarantee that the combined entity will equal the sum of the two parts. Assets could be shed to meet reduced demand, or growth could occur to meet increased demand. I'd agree about having to significantly improve the product to successfully compete against the legacies. A bigger version of what is currently being offered won't work. There is a demand for a low cost product, just as there is a demand for legacy offerings, but no one knows how that balance will work out.

Originally Posted by gonyon (Post 3877928)

so combined fleet 20230 would be in the neighborhood of 500-550 planes. 7500-8000 pilots group. Not bad not bad.

hopefully they would be able to find markets for that amount of ulcc product in the us. They will definitely need to tweet the product beyond blocked middle seats.

Originally Posted by Stayontarget (Post 3877908)

Spirits order book starts growing again in about 2030.


All subject to change of course.

Originally Posted by symbian simian (Post 3878298)

The reason there is no growth till 30 is because they cancelled orders and are selling planes. The reason there is growth after 30 is because they aren't looking that far ahead. Reread your last sentence a couple of more times every day.