Kirby was WRONG!
01-02-2026 | 06:03 PM
#61
On Reserve
Joined: Jun 2025
Posts: 107
Likes: 34
01-03-2026 | 12:52 PM
#67
Line Holder
Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 1,627
Likes: 144
he has been on here for years predicting AA will
go Bankrupt because they have debt, bla bla bla.
[QUOTE=Excargodog;3579590]Hey, I’m happy for you guys. You have greatly exceeded expectations. If we can just keep junk bond rates from going too high or the predicted recession from getting too bad you may well power right out of the debt load. Good on you. You going bankrupt would have hurt us all.[/QUOTE
he has stuff like this all over in a 2021 AA Bankruptcy poll.
Last edited by PNWFlyer; 01-03-2026 at 01:08 PM.
01-03-2026 | 01:24 PM
#68
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,176
Likes: 234
https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com...ancial-results
that is a continual drain on their profits. Now my guess is that they’ll survive, but they are looking at a decade or better of high debt service that will limit their dividends as well as their profit sharing. Others have less rosier opinions:
https://liveandletsfly.com/isom-amer...crushing-debt/
an excerpt:
The problem with American’s debt is that at its current repayment rate, the airline will have to perform well and apply excess earnings to payments. When Doug Parker and crew took over the (then) world’s largest airline in 2013, the carrier had paid down its debt from $14.4bn in 2005 to $7.2bn. That debt jumped to $18bn the next year and when he left in April of 2023 it had risen to $37.2bn.
On paper, the airline plans to pay it off in 12 years but that assumes that American performs to its own expectations. But it almost never does. In 2023 the carrier forecast earnings per share to reach $3.00-3.25, it ended the year at $.29/share. In 2024 it forecast a profit of $2.25-3.25/share (a massive spread), it closed the year at $1.70/share. Both 2023, and 2024 were record revenue years for the airline. In 2025, it forecast $1.70-2.70 per share, revised that down to $.80 profit ranging down to a $.20 loss, and now back up to $.65-.95/share.
The point is simple: American rarely performs to its own expectations. Trusting the airline to pay down it’s debt on time is a fool’s errand. Management’s goal of paying debt down by just $1.8bn over the next five quarters is based on management’s unbridled optimism it will make money in the future. The problem is that there’s little history to back the claim. If American continues at its current pace, it’s possible the airline will never pay down its debt and it could grow even if the carrier is diligent about applying its meager profits to debt service.
On paper, the airline plans to pay it off in 12 years but that assumes that American performs to its own expectations. But it almost never does. In 2023 the carrier forecast earnings per share to reach $3.00-3.25, it ended the year at $.29/share. In 2024 it forecast a profit of $2.25-3.25/share (a massive spread), it closed the year at $1.70/share. Both 2023, and 2024 were record revenue years for the airline. In 2025, it forecast $1.70-2.70 per share, revised that down to $.80 profit ranging down to a $.20 loss, and now back up to $.65-.95/share.
The point is simple: American rarely performs to its own expectations. Trusting the airline to pay down it’s debt on time is a fool’s errand. Management’s goal of paying debt down by just $1.8bn over the next five quarters is based on management’s unbridled optimism it will make money in the future. The problem is that there’s little history to back the claim. If American continues at its current pace, it’s possible the airline will never pay down its debt and it could grow even if the carrier is diligent about applying its meager profits to debt service.
01-03-2026 | 07:13 PM
#69
Line Holder
Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 1,627
Likes: 144
Not so. I predicted that AA had huge debt at very favorable rates that they would be forced to refinance at much higher rates and they would be fortunate if they didn’t go bankrupt. They were fortunate, because the post COVID rebound was quicker and stronger than anticipated, so DESPITE having had to refinance at much higher rates, they did not enter bankruptcy. They do have exceedingly high debt service $1.467 BILLION for the first three quarters of 2025
https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com...ancial-results
that is a continual drain on their profits. Now my guess is that they’ll survive, but they are looking at a decade or better of high debt service that will limit their dividends as well as their profit sharing. Others have less rosier opinions:
https://liveandletsfly.com/isom-amer...crushing-debt/
an excerpt:
But, as that great philosopher Yogi Berra said, “Predictions are hard, especially about the future.”
https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com...ancial-results
that is a continual drain on their profits. Now my guess is that they’ll survive, but they are looking at a decade or better of high debt service that will limit their dividends as well as their profit sharing. Others have less rosier opinions:
https://liveandletsfly.com/isom-amer...crushing-debt/
an excerpt:
But, as that great philosopher Yogi Berra said, “Predictions are hard, especially about the future.”
01-03-2026 | 08:11 PM
#70
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,190
Likes: 161
GMAFB. the lot of you were just frothing at the Mouth at the idea of spirit going under and these guys losing their paychecks while jerking each other off about what’s going to happen next and where the planes will go.
You’re all pathetic individuals, at least be brave enough to say yeah, you were rooting for their demise.
You’re all pathetic individuals, at least be brave enough to say yeah, you were rooting for their demise.
You, however, chose to stay put at F9 in the best hiring environment in decades. Then you failed the interview at United (or maybe never interviewed at all cuz trolling is your thing?) so now you’re all butt hurt about it. Please spare us the misery
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