I think in this case, with oil dropping and common sense prevailing, you will see many "no" voters "materialize" at the last minute.

Heyas,

The DAL guys pretty much hit the nail on the head.

If a "no" vote comes from the DAL guys, and a "yes" vote from NWA dudes, there will be a JPWA (NOT a LOA19) style agreement between DAL management and NWALPA within 72 hours, to a week on the outside. It will be MECratted, and approved 24 hours after that.

RA was talking up the pilot deal on CNBC the other day like it was a done deal. To make him eat crow publically is going to be mistake, IMHO, in light of all the selling that has been done to the financial folks.

The new LOA will be based on the NWA PWA, not the DAL, and thus you will see the efficiency of the NWA contract married to pay raises. In combination with dropping oil, access to 40-50 essentially free aircraft that can be launched at a moments notice, PERPS and other retirements (due to continued access to reduced rate health insurance), rapid movement at NWA becomes a real possibility. Any SLI will have to take that into account. Additionally, the "no predjudice" agreement will no longer apply, since the raises for the NWA guys will have occured outside the JPWA process. This will no doubt muddy the integration process further.

The DAL guys will also be locked out of the furlough protection that Compass provides. Since it's a bump/flush, the cost to furlough the Compass guys, and re-train NWA guys for the EMB is a major barrier for the company, discouraging furloughs.
The managment we are dealing with is NWA management with DAL ID's, NOT the other way around. These are the people who have a decade or more experience on how NWA works, and they will proceed directly to GO, and collect their $200 (million).

Nu

We are hedged at 90 a barrel.
BTW oil falling now goes against all of DAL's long term models and actually will hurt us as more carriers will survive. Oil staying up when we have already paid a good price for our fuel, only allows the other to come closer to our cost structure that are not hedging, thus lowering ticket prices and CSAM and all of the other neat little abbreviations.
It will actually hurt us in the long term.

So, are starting a pool on this?

DAL 52/48 yes, NWA 80/20 yes

Nu

No. They do not have "IDs" anywhere.

they are greedy scumsuckers with ZERO loyalty to anyone whatsoever. If you think they're on your side, you're dead wrong. A USAir scenario will hurt their bottom line. They cannot afford to risk it.

We'll never get any restoration without some risk.

Oil dropping right now doesnt mean it couldn't skyrocket tomorrow. There are MANY reasons why it could go back up. Let hope it doesnt but negotiating power just isnt there right now. We all would love MORE but you have to be realistic at some point and realize a unified pilot group NOW is worth alot more in the future then a couple extra bucks an hour now and a divided pilot group.

An economist will tell you there are just as many reasons why it will continue to go down.

Dammit, we will NEVER get back to where this industry was without taking a chance! Why does no one understand this?

Hey i agree with you for the most part. However you have to look at the big picture, right now we realistically dont have negotiating leverage IMHO.

I would love an industry leading contract and big money but i am just trying to be realistic at the same time. With that said as a single unified 12000+ pilot pilot group, when full blown contract talks start up we will at that time have all the leverage of size and the fact that we helped mgmt get this merger done. When that time comes i will be right there with you

I agree. But we're like Custard making his last stand with 10 men and no spare ammo. We need to regroup and fight in four years. This is not cowardice talking, this is acceptance of the facts at hand. We are at an economic disadvantage. This TA sows the seeds for the next contract. I would rather make 30% more four years from now off our 20% increase than make 40% four years from now off no increase.

We'll have the "flavor of the week" crisis in four years. You can bet your bottom dollar managment is working hard to concoct it, even as we speak--by greasing congress' palm to legalize cabotage, or whatever else they can think of.

It won't be any easier next time around.

I'll take more money now...and take the chance that more will be there in four years. I'm betting it will be.