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-   -   Airbus 320 hours down (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/united/100480-airbus-320-hours-down.html)

Panzon 03-11-2017 12:32 PM


Originally Posted by Regularguy (Post 2317029)
Anybody have a clue why?

My guess (es):
Pilot shortage
- or -
Obama
- or -
Trump
- or -
Alternative Facts
- or -
Wall not built yet
- or -
Trump Tower was bugged

awax 03-11-2017 03:46 PM


Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets (Post 2318121)
The only trick to the 787, I can't remember other fleets, is you have to turn the FDs off, reprogram everything, then get the FD back on.

That's what I remember, a half page check list with the punch line being turn the FD off, then....

Change the runway in the FMC, then request runway data and load, then turn the FD on.

That really is embarrassing if they couldn't swing it in a minute. The only pain is that you have to manually request runway data and then accars has to load the runway performance into the FMC, no easy manual fallback

Regularguy 03-11-2017 08:03 PM

"If your math is correct that is an average of 2 lines per base. On a one month snapshot. "

What makes it huge is all the other fleets were either equal or slightly up in hours for April and that should be a spring break month with lots of travel.

I'll embarrass my self some more with math in public.

Assume each airplane flys an average of 10 hours, a day a drop of a 1000 hours means about 3+ Airplanes are parked for a month. This means CASM go up across the fleet because the fixed costs are spread across fewer miles/hours/airplanes.

I seem to remember Kirby just sacked 300 people to save money.

However, the issue I'm trying to point to is, in spite of Kirby's pep talk this airline is doing a "capacity" constraint dance again. All the talk about airplanes and orders is similar to what Tilton and Company said over a decade ago.

I believe that except for the retirements of us old guys over the next few years UAL is in a zero growth mind set right now and will only reshuffle the assets to maximize revenues. While LAX may recover and ORD defended it will all be done at a cost of flying in another gateway base.

A Cold doesn't start when one is wheezing, coughing and blowing one's nose. It began when that friend of yours came to dinner and said it wasn't anything, just allergies, when they kept sniffing and wiggling their nose.

Bid what you want to fly and where you are willing to live.

No the sky is not falling we just need to know what color it is and what time of day it is.

Grumble 03-12-2017 04:12 AM

Heard from a TK source yesterday they were told less than 300 new hires this year.

ufgatorpilot 03-12-2017 06:43 AM

I'm relatively new to the company on the 320 in SFO, and the credit range for FOs for April bidding is 73:30 to 89:30. I've only been based in SFO for a few months, but 89:30 seems really high. :eek: It isn't even summer! Are we possibly just short on FOs in SFO? I'll be testing out our revised line credit range commands for April... :cool:

C11DCA 03-12-2017 06:57 AM


Originally Posted by Regularguy (Post 2318912)
"If your math is correct that is an average of 2 lines per base. On a one month snapshot. "

What makes it huge is all the other fleets were either equal or slightly up in hours for April and that should be a spring break month with lots of travel.

I'll embarrass my self some more with math in public.

Assume each airplane flys an average of 10 hours, a day a drop of a 1000 hours means about 3+ Airplanes are parked for a month. This means CASM go up across the fleet because the fixed costs are spread across fewer miles/hours/airplanes.

I seem to remember Kirby just sacked 300 people to save money.

However, the issue I'm trying to point to is, in spite of Kirby's pep talk this airline is doing a "capacity" constraint dance again. All the talk about airplanes and orders is similar to what Tilton and Company said over a decade ago.

I believe that except for the retirements of us old guys over the next few years UAL is in a zero growth mind set right now and will only reshuffle the assets to maximize revenues. While LAX may recover and ORD defended it will all be done at a cost of flying in another gateway base.

A Cold doesn't start when one is wheezing, coughing and blowing one's nose. It began when that friend of yours came to dinner and said it wasn't anything, just allergies, when they kept sniffing and wiggling their nose.

Bid what you want to fly and where you are willing to live.

No the sky is not falling we just need to know what color it is and what time of day it is.



I agree with your overall sentiment, just pointing out that a one month drop (not surprising since April is post spring break generally) is probably not the best way to look at it from a long term trend analysis. For the record, the 756 was down 3600 hours domestically and the 737 was down 3600 hours as well from March. So it's all narrowbody domestic that were down.

We were never going to have "explosive" growth. Just a 1-2% increase (as measured by ASM). The whole 737-700 order was insane for that reason alone. Adding 30-40 aircraft this year would have been a shock to the system. Great for jobs short term, but at what expense in the medium/long term?

DC

Bluewaffle 03-12-2017 07:02 AM


Originally Posted by Grumble (Post 2318963)
Heard from a TK source yesterday they were told less than 300 new hires this year.

So in other words we're shrinking this year

How did we get here?

CHAIRMAN 03-12-2017 07:12 AM


Originally Posted by Grumble (Post 2318963)
Heard from a TK source yesterday they were told less than 300 new hires this year.

We added classes to 3 per month Feb and Mar and 4 classes in April with projections to have 263 through class by the first week of May. That would be a pretty big stand still for the next 7 months.

Airhoss 03-12-2017 07:21 AM


Originally Posted by Grumble (Post 2318963)
Heard from a TK source yesterday they were told less than 300 new hires this year.

And right now at this moment you are hearing from another TK source that what you previously heard from your other TK source is 100% incorrect.

The predicted number at the moment is about 650 new hires for 2017.

Regularguy 03-12-2017 07:29 AM


Originally Posted by C11DCA (Post 2319028)
I agree with your overall sentiment, just pointing out that a one month drop (not surprising since April is post spring break generally) is probably not the best way to look at it from a long term trend analysis.
DC

Ok after almost 4 decades of this business and airline I agree that one month is not a trend, but it's that one month added to the many subtle change we've seen and heard over the past few months which made me post the comment/question.

The Board fight, new senior management positions, airplane order delays and possible cancelations and now Kirby with his world tour rhetoric directed mainly to pilots about bringing the fight all add up to one thing, stagnation and or retraction.

Yes United will survive, but don't buy that Captain house, especially in MCO.


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