Furloughs and break even points
04-01-2020, 06:00 PM
#111
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: 777FO
Posts: 703
Pretty grim to be discussing this stuff in the first place, but here is a good article I haven't seen posted here on the considerations involved in furloughing:
The cost of staff reductions | Audries Aircraft Analysis
If the assumptions are reasonably accurate, furloughs don't start breaking even unless they are for longer than 12-18 months. It also makes no guess at how retirements might 'flatten the curve'. The OP posted dire numbers that made it seem furloughs could break even in as little as six months. I'm cautiously optimistic that if we take the grants and things start to show a modest recovery by the fall we may never find ourselves using the term "hat trick furloughee".
The cost of staff reductions | Audries Aircraft Analysis
If the assumptions are reasonably accurate, furloughs don't start breaking even unless they are for longer than 12-18 months. It also makes no guess at how retirements might 'flatten the curve'. The OP posted dire numbers that made it seem furloughs could break even in as little as six months. I'm cautiously optimistic that if we take the grants and things start to show a modest recovery by the fall we may never find ourselves using the term "hat trick furloughee".
04-01-2020, 06:26 PM
#113
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 880
Originally Posted by CLazarus
Pretty grim to be discussing this stuff in the first place, but here is a good article I haven't seen posted here on the considerations involved in furloughing:
The cost of staff reductions | Audries Aircraft Analysis
If the assumptions are reasonably accurate, furloughs don't start breaking even unless they are for longer than 12-18 months. It also makes no guess at how retirements might 'flatten the curve'. The OP posted dire numbers that made it seem furloughs could break even in as little as six months. I'm cautiously optimistic that if we take the grants and things start to show a modest recovery by the fall we may never find ourselves using the term "hat trick furloughee".
The cost of staff reductions | Audries Aircraft Analysis
If the assumptions are reasonably accurate, furloughs don't start breaking even unless they are for longer than 12-18 months. It also makes no guess at how retirements might 'flatten the curve'. The OP posted dire numbers that made it seem furloughs could break even in as little as six months. I'm cautiously optimistic that if we take the grants and things start to show a modest recovery by the fall we may never find ourselves using the term "hat trick furloughee".
04-01-2020, 07:25 PM
#114
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2019
Posts: 215
Originally Posted by AxlF16
I think that horse left the barn before this pandemic began. Ignoring it and thinking we could 'keep it out' allowed it to run unchecked in our country for several weeks. Our economy and citizenry will unfortunately pay that price this time. I agree with the strategy you outlined...I just think we were way to late to execute it.
FWIW, if the federal government can execute the economic strategy funded by the stimulus, then fund the recovery with additional stimulus in a few months I think we'll avoid the nightmare scenario you forsee. I see the price tag easily exceeding $5T before it's over. That's a LOT of scratch, but its NOTHING compared to the economic catastrophe that would unfold without it. I think the lessons learned from the last 2 decades will help get us through this.
FWIW, if the federal government can execute the economic strategy funded by the stimulus, then fund the recovery with additional stimulus in a few months I think we'll avoid the nightmare scenario you forsee. I see the price tag easily exceeding $5T before it's over. That's a LOT of scratch, but its NOTHING compared to the economic catastrophe that would unfold without it. I think the lessons learned from the last 2 decades will help get us through this.
04-01-2020, 07:54 PM
#115
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,137
Originally Posted by domino
agreed. I’m thinking 5-6K
so you prediction is 7-8000 pilots off the list? We will be out of business. But judging by your post history you appear to be a broken record posting the same number in every airlines forum so I doubt very much that you have put any critical thinking into your number.
04-02-2020, 01:28 AM
#119
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2013
Posts: 539
Originally Posted by Bahamasflyer
No.
CHINA must be held accountable and pay for this. I'm not joking at all. Makes my blood boil, and hopefully many other westerners too.
CHINA must be held accountable and pay for this. I'm not joking at all. Makes my blood boil, and hopefully many other westerners too.
Many people have been highly suspicious of any information coming out of China through this whole ordeal. Looks like those people were right. Only time will provide clarification on this. For myself I personally am highly distrustful of anything coming out of China.
On s tangent, and maybe I’m wrong here, but I recall somewhere that part of our modeling data comes from China. So basically if they have underreported what is happening then it stands to reason we can anticipate more casualties of this virus.
So yes. It does make my blood boil. At the same time however, I’m sadly not surprised. Who knows what the future will bring.
Stay safe and healthy everyone
04-02-2020, 04:01 AM
#120
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 170
Who are all these people not working? Maybe you guys that live in cities are see people sitting around but were at 100% employment with everyone I know and I live in a stay at home state of emergency state. Nobody has stopped working! People can't afford to sit home, bill's still come due food needs to get put on the table, hell I leave tomorrow for a three day trip. The Sky is falling crowd is gonna be disappointed in a month or two when this country is back to full time employment. People are already looking for flight deals...will some markets be slow? yes!
But for the majority of this pilot group its gonna be get your ass back to work.
Toilet bowl rant...later gotta go work out in the yard
But for the majority of this pilot group its gonna be get your ass back to work.
Toilet bowl rant...later gotta go work out in the yard
