Airline Pilot Central Forums - Schedule/fleet reductions

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BRJPilot (Post 3007008)

You guys do get drug tested at United, right?

Clearly a bitter regional guy. Every sentence is clueless. Unfortunately, I think this adds 2 plus years to anyone trying to go to a big 3.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BRJPilot (Post 3007009)

Which RJs are going into storage?

The reductions are going to cut deeper before this is over. I wouldn’t expect the planes that TSA was operating to show up on the XJT ramp until there is somewhere for them to go. Bookings of only 10 pax don’t make anything work. There will most likely be some of everything sitting before things start to recover. The longer this goes on and the more damage that is done to the economy, the more all fleets will be affected due to fewer people being able to afford to travel. The bottom part of every seniority list in the industry, including the regionals, is a scary place right now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Half wing (Post 3007014)

Clearly a bitter regional guy. Every sentence is clueless. Unfortunately, I think this adds 2 plus years to anyone trying to go to a big 3.

Jeeeze! Thought this was a forum for sarcastic armchair quarterbacking on who can come up with the outlandish theories to have a chuckle in these dark days. Did not realize we must be serious and somber in this forum. In that case, then your last sentence is probably correct. Though, I’m sure it extends to upward movement within the big 3 as well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Half wing (Post 3007014)

Clearly a bitter regional guy. Every sentence is clueless. Unfortunately, I think this adds 2 plus years to anyone trying to go to a big 3.

I agree. 2 years at a minimum.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BRJPilot (Post 3007009)

Which RJs are going into storage?

Check out arrivals to storage facilities in the US through some flight trackers. Pick a few storage facilities.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoePatroni (Post 3006686)

YOU’RE ON GUARD!!!!!! Couldn’t resist....(cat noise)

check your freq buddy !! You’re on guard .

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagooFlew (Post 3006955)

just trying to follow your analysis...I think you meant the marginal additional (sidelined on SRL) pilots cost 50/73hrs = 69% ; ) of what they used to. But the more relevant factor would be the marginal cost of the 50-100 seat lift (at rough avg 34% of the cost in pilot crew pay alone)

XJet 175 FO / UAL 737 FO $/hr
4 yr 46/ 161
3 yr 158 / 44
157 / 42
91 / 40
avg 43 / 137

XJet 175 CA / UAL 737 CA
4 yr 87 / 276
85 / 273
83 / 270
81 / 268
avg 84 / 272

127 / 369
34%

You could pay two RJ crews to fly the same hours and still pay 254/369 =only 69% of the mainline pilot rate for one crew, plus the lower overall operating costs and $/seat-mile efficiency (if you can convince travelers to fly on a full non socially-distanced RJ). I don’t have all those costs or the revenue share for UAL to figure it all out, but likely the only reason they don’t swap RJ for mainline lift right now is to some extent the aircraft range, but mostly the contract and union engagement. But if they do, wouldn’t the RJ profitability at these load factors help the SRL’d mainline guys keep their jobs?

I haven't bothered playing with the numbers but I'm sure SK will, including factoring in the cost to retrain UAL pilots. In addition, it's a matter of how easy it will be for United to contractually reduce outsourcing. This is all speculation on my part; good for you for doing an initial numbers crunch.

Cost per seat mile may not matter as much as cost to operate each flight. I wouldn't expect any flight - either RJ or mainline - to be profitable for some time; I'm not sure why you or anyone would think that RJ flights are anywhere close to breakeven for mainline carriers. I also expect flight frequency of all city pairs to be reduced - that's both mainline and RJ cities.

No airline is going to be spared from this carnage.

Quote:

Originally Posted by domino (Post 3007076)

I agree. 2 years at a minimum.

I'm going to guess 10.

FedEx and UPS are still hiring...

The United regionals should offer the Aviate program to furloughed UA pilots. The competition for regional pilot jobs will be intense.