Honestly, the level of irrelevance of your post is unprecedented

 

Hey, we’ve got a new flight school and the Aviate program going for us, at least! Lots of new pilots coming.

https://www.globaltravelerusa.com/un...flight-school/

 

We’re at over 22 million unemployed in just one month with projections (from banks not the news) of it approaching levels not seen since the depression. So yes, we are facing unemployment levels not seen since the depression. There is no plan for folks to return to work without rolling back into several stay-at-home orders. There’s no return to normal until a vaccine is available or the virus miraculously fading away.

I’m sure you and many others have claimed this is all hysterics since the start - all while the situation became exponentially worse. What’s hysterical is the desire to constantly lie to yourself to cope with reality. In January this was ignored. In February it was just a minor disruption of Asia travel. In March it was just going to be a tough 2-3 months. Now in mid-April, according to Kirby, demand is expected to be suppressed for the full year. The likelihood of this quickly turning around is fast diminishing. I can’t see the future, but I can understand the present.

 

Source?

When asked yesterday Dr Fauci said a vaccine was at best slightly over a year away for anyone. Realistically 15-18 months.

 

same experts said that the virus was going to infect 300,000,000 by May 1st

so now we’re typing 5,000,000 x 2 into the calculator, hitting = and then writing stories about how no one will have a job in 8 weeks

bravo to the hysterical idiots!

 

I love how the people claim doom and gloom are all usernames Iv never seen before.

Training center can’t handle 4000 furloughs in a year let alone all at once. I think we will need 9-10,000 pilots for summer 2022. Add in retirements and that’s how many furloughs I see. With recalls starting in JAN 2023. We can most likely only furlough 100 a month max.
I think if you look at the seniority projector and look at your number for April 2022 and it falls 9500 and below you will most likely survive this furlough.


anecdotally was talking to freind this morning who travels 4 times a week. His company told him come mid May he is going back to a normal schedule no matter what. The company has to have him travel to do business. Travel will come back because it has too or we will all be living in caves with clubs and camp fires.

 

Yep a lot of hysterics. Some hysterical idiots pretend media outlets caused businesses, corporations, and global conglomerates to close. I believe initially though the economy collapsed because many people hoarded toilet paper.

 

Stop with your nonsense. United Airlines has existed and has a history before you got here. They have furloughed over 100 a month multiple times with less resources to do so.

 

Interesting thoughts. I'm a bit more optimistic, although perhaps some will argue I'm overly pessimistic. The following are all uneducated guesses.

The Spanish Flu was much more severe and deadly than COVID-19, it was obviously in a different technological era. It's hard to see COVID-19 becoming a significant endemic. From what I'd gander it will turn into something similar to a typical flu strain once the initial pandemic surge is over.

The economic and psychological recovery, I can't begin to guess as the behavior of politicians and residents does not follow data on the disease, but I digress.

In 2022 what size would the company be relative to today's size? I assume the virus will be mostly an afterthought at that point, even without a vaccine. In 2022 I'd guess the company may be 85% of it's current size, which would mean approximately 11,000 pilots. Hopefully more, possibly less?

Unfortunately I expect to be involuntarily furloughed, but I would expect recalls to begin within 2 years. I'm factoring in previous duration and impact of pandemics, previous furlough amounts and duration, projected retirements. Loose estimates, again without any formal education. Just a guess...but who knows? There many very well be another CARES Act, another grant, another loan. It is an election year and this stuff is very difficult to predict.

I like seeing the prediction of others. The consensus of them all will probably be pretty darn accurate, but I'd guess (and hope) you are little too pessimistic with your guess. It's unfortunate this has all happened, United has grown on me quite a bit in the short time I've been here. It is/was a darn good job.

 

you can call it non sense all you want but this time is a lot different .

in 2001 United parked the most junior fleets forever. 727s and some older 737s plus anything that had an FE. That made furloughing bigger numbers per month significantly easier.

in 2008 they parked 100 737s forever again another Junior airplane allowing for higher furlough numbers.

this time our most Junior airplanes we’ll be staying and they will be needed in full force to recover from this. You can’t just take an axe every month to SFO A320 and 737 FOs and expect the system to keep operating. The training center can only do 60 crews a month in the 737 and I think 30 on the 320. That’s 45 FOs a month or 90 FOs for unpaired crews.

so call it non sense but it’s the numbers I see.