I am not going to predicting how this all shakes out, but the huge unemployment numbers are a bit misleading. I found a chart that Goldman produced showing the distribution of industries making up the ~15% unemployment. I don't know how to post pictures, but the big take away is ~9pts is made up of Leisure / Hospitality (4.5pts), Retail (3.3pts), and 'Other Services' (1.5pts).

Right now, especially in Leisure+Retail, there is near zero demand. I could see that as soon as that shelter in place starts to be lifted, these places will start hiring / recalling a lot of their workforce. I personally cant wait to get out of the house, and a few of my friends groups have already started planning big dinners out once we can.

 

You're not looking at the right numbers. For once take a look at the seniority on every fleet we have. Wake up. EVERY FLEET's RIGHT SEAT IS THE JUNIOR AIRPLANE right now. Try taking a look at the most junior Captains on the list. Then see how many WB FO's are junior to that. How many 756 pilots are below that number? Do you know what those numbers tell you?

The important number is around 11,100 seniority. They can significantly touch every single fleet. And can displace in a away that would significantly reduce the time it takes to cascade. I see it. The company sees it.

You're right in one respect only. This time is different. But not in the good way.

 

read what I wrote again...


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-fro...194532709.html

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-as-this-fall

I don’t know where The Stillest gets “likely”, but Moderna claims they can get small amounts to emergency workers potentially this fall. Lots of red tape would require waiving. IF, big IF (Fauci’s words), it’s safe and effective.
Commercial sales and numbers would be a year away.

 

again, read the exact words I wrote, not what you feel I wrote

 

you are correct but you can’t furlough out of seniority. I’m a junior A320 Captain and possibly in the range of furlough but they can’t just trough me out OCT 1 because I’m no longer needed as an A320 CA.

i think the furlough in OCT 1 will be a big number but after that they have to start training.

 

Here are your EXACT words, where did I misquote you.
Where do you arrive at “LIKELY” from the sources we both posted.

 

Who said anything about furloughing out of seniority? Again, go take a look at the seniority demographics. Take a look at how many FO's are senior to 11,100 on each fleet. And consider that not every displacement requires training.

 

They can run a displacement and start training prior to October. I probably won’t get furloughed again, but I expect to be in school for the 737 or 320 before the we start furloughing pilots this fall. Unless big things happen to demand, they will have some time to start putting the pieces in place. I agree that we are potentially looking at a big number. I just hope that demand recovers before we get there.

 

you are correct not every displacement requires training. There are a lot of variables that go into how much training will need to be done. the training department has REQUAL foot prints it can use.

RQ1 - really won’t be used as it’s only for a missed CQ by 3 months. 2days
RQ2 - 4 months to 24 months. And you need greater than 300 hours in the fleet and seat. 8 days
RQ3 - 25 months to 60 months. You need greater than 1000+ hours in the fleet and seat. 11 days
short upgrade- it might work for short downgrade I’m not sure. 14 days

there has been so much movement the past 5 years that the chances of people having 1000 hours in a single fleet and seat is low. So the magic number is really 24 months. If. A pilot has been on their current fleet and seat for 24 months or more they will most likely need a full QUAL.

the other variable is no one ever knows how. A pilot will bid. A 787 pilot May have 1000 hours as a 737 FO but they may elect to go the the 756 or the A320 triggering a full Qual.

you make it sound so simple but unless you take the time to show me your numbers I’m going to stick with the thought that is hard.