Originally Posted by O2pilot (Post 3063078)

After the JB or AS merger we can add in JB or AS 2012 hire as that same seniority. Then I want to hear the CAL 06 hires talk about how unfair it is that someone hired after them at JB or AS can be senior to them at United. Management is following the formula, furlough a massive number of pilots, merge with another airline, immediately bring back the furloughed pilots. Its critical to make sure the pilots are gone when the merger happens, even if they are only off the property for a few months, since that’s all the merger panels look at. If JB/AS play it right, they have nobody or very few on furlough and they get to ride the wave. Great for them!

Originally Posted by SONORA PASS (Post 3063055)

My GUESS is it goes something like this:

Training will likely begin a max effort this week to assign Transition/RQ training to the awarded NB FO's above 70% seniority line. For those needing full transition they will likely pair F/O's; the NB FO will be their immediate training focus.

Displacement bid 20-07D2 is likely going to be published between Wednesday and Friday this week. Getting it out by Friday would provide the 30 days required by 8-E-2 allowing the effective date to be June 29th (the July bid month). This bid would probably focus on pushing any excess NB CA and WB/756 FO to NB FO and might target some larger NB FO imbalances. Be careful on any "sport bidding" on this one, as the results of this displacement awards may have a long shelf life.

The results of that displacement would be out somewhere around Monday June 22. It is highly probable following that award the company will issue furlough notices.

During the last week of June they would probably issue furlough notices to comply with the 90 day requirement in Section 1-I-2. This notification date would allow the company to furlough pilots hired before January 23, 2016 if needed. This also would trigger 7-I which exempts pilots notified of furlough from being displaced on the next round of displacement bidding.

Displacement bid 20-08D (round 3) could be out the last week of June or it could easily be a vacancy bid instead. A displacement would likely be smaller and focus on any gross imbalances of NB F/O's. If the displacement is issued it would likely be followed by the vacancy bid in late July to backfill any categories that ended up short. Again, it is very possible that the vacancy bid could come before the 3rd round of displacements.

This would all result in having the 70% staffing done on paper by the end of July. The training backlog would be large, but likely manageable.

In August and September, any signs of demand recovery would then be weight against the potential risks of COVID round 2 this winter in determining whether to cancel some furlough notices. Let's hope that a fast recovery is the case!

This whole thing is extremely dynamic, and of course is subject to positive and negative changes going forward. I do not know what will happen, but the timeline above is likely very likely if the present industry expectations do continue as forecast.

Hoping for the best case, but preparing otherwise.

SP

Originally Posted by GPullR (Post 3063278)

Wow, you really need to run for an ALPA position and fix the merger policy since DOH has NEVER been in it.

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Originally Posted by Itsajob (Post 3063299)

He’ll be 90 years old in a nursing home still complaining about the SLI. A LUAL guy who spent years of his longevity on furlough is upset that the arbitrator followed his company’s integration proposal instead of using pure hire date, including inactive years while on furlough. Most people have moved on, some will take it to the grave.

Originally Posted by ugleeual (Post 3063294)

i think you are on track.... I’m at 65% on the list and just assigned A320 training on 6/11... the train is moving fast.

Originally Posted by DashTrash (Post 3063307)

Wow!!! That was quick!!! I’m about 74% system wide. 29% as far as my award for my displacement. No class yet...

Originally Posted by O2pilot (Post 3063305)

Never furloughed. Not even close. Also the arbitrators didn't take the UAL proposal. They adjusted down the longevity to help junior LCAL pilots and added a ridiculous 787 fence that let a bunch of guys get based in LAX and SFO that shouldn't have been there. Doesn't matter now. They are all gone.

Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets (Post 3063231)

I think we have pilots on here hired in every year. So why don’t we keep track of the hire dates of the pilots getting trained?