What are the probabilities of any of these triggers actually “hit” thus terminating the agreement?

1. Company puts seats back into any 76-seat aircraft - not likely

2. Pilot hired prior to August 20, 2016 is involuntarily furloughed - IV absolutely, but to 2007. Then the company will survive on available credit and our concessions to bridge the gap for the following 1 1/2 years

3. Company earns any profit for two consecutive quarters - not a chance

4. Passenger revenue reaches 80% of 2019 level for a single quarter - 80% load factor maybe, but revenue, not likely

5. Passenger revenue reaches 70% of 2019 level for three consecutive quarters - not gonna happen

6. Cash balance drops below $2B - analysts have reported that our $17B in cash is enough to keep us in business well beyond a year from now

7. Company files for bankruptcy - see number 6

8. Company notifies ALPA that it has no intent to utilize reduced work provision - not a chance

9. October 2022 Bid Period ends - MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME

I Recognize we’re gambling when HOPING for a certain trigger to end our misery under this TA. With odds like this TA (where the house has about a 90% edge) who in their right mind walks into a casino and lays a $100 bet that’ll pay 90% of your original bet? Or in the case of the junior group, we’ll lay the same bet with only a 53% payout.

I’ll pass on these odds.

 

Agree. You have better luck playing Keno

 

The two assumptions you make which are incorrect, are that the junior group pilot has a job. If you think the company is bluffing, then I personally think you are nuts.

The other HUGE piece you aren’t acknowledging, is that a lot of senior pilots are losing their seat and us taking a pay cut, or losing so much seniority that their QOL in their BES is gutted. Everyone is going to have to make that choice themselves, but if you asked a lot of commuters if they’d like to maintain 90% of their current schedule, like productive and commutable trips, or fly more days a month for the same pay because they now can’t hold commutable or productive trips. That sounds more concessionary to me. But I like my life outside of work…

There’s no way the company furloughes less than 2007 if we are below 67.5% of flying. Believing the opposite, is to me a far stranger bet

 

If you are lower third as you claim then you’ll get an “auto-pass” on the “misery”.....because you won’t be here long. Which may be a good thing for you. I do hope you get that great job all the junior no voters seem to say they have lined up.

Just remember....they can take your ID and livelihood from you....but you’ll always be able to enjoy this forum!!

 

When the union divided us I felt compelled to speak up. By the looks of it you enjoy this form much more than me. I’ll be moving on either way.

This TA was sprung on us with such urgency. Did you get a phone call from the New Hampshire area code with opportunity to express your elation with it? I didn’t either. I thought I heard the NC had been working on this for 6 months. Why no membership participation or input?

I don’t wish Ill will on anyone and certainly not a furlough. Never wanted it but if that’s my fate I accept it because the UPA provides a lead time that I’m comfortable with when trying to find new employment. Happy voting to you!

 

With the exception of perfectly played basic strategy blackjack...and Bacarrat...pretty much everything in the casino runs 10% house favor or more

 

It seems as if we are getting closer to one of our triggers taking effect and terminating the LOA. Any best guesses to the over/under in months remaining under the LOA?

 

Didn’t the 76-seaters get their seats back already? I thought that was announced a while ago for implementation in July.

 

they are back. That bullet was missing a massive astrick.
*if they are added back during reduced hours.

 

Hmm. When I read the LOA, it doesn’t seem that way. Anyone else see it as only applying during reduced work hours?