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Hunter Keay

Old 10-24-2020, 02:53 PM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by TFAYD View Post
AA is clearly doing poorly. Not sure that we are that much better off though.

[img]blob:https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/eca33598-aa20-4d79-8719-17026a3be9c4[/img]
Its not just about this quarters financials it’s about having and executing a longish...as long as it can be given the circumstances....plan. I feel we have a long term plan A and B......I’m not sure what AAs is? They just seem to be existing. They had a plan back in JUly to fly more than anyone else and that failed. Since then they have been month to month, and are now behind
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Old 10-24-2020, 04:05 PM
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets View Post
Its not just about this quarters financials it’s about having and executing a longish...as long as it can be given the circumstances....plan. I feel we have a long term plan A and B......I’m not sure what AAs is? They just seem to be existing. They had a plan back in JUly to fly more than anyone else and that failed. Since then they have been month to month, and are now behind
not sure if you read the WSJ article or not - but DL and WN have a lot more cash to outlast this for much longer than we do.

you can only soar to new heights if there is sufficient runway left.
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Old 10-24-2020, 04:06 PM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by TFAYD View Post
not sure if you read the WSJ article or not - but DL and WN have a lot more cash to outlast this for much longer than we do.

you can only soar to new heights if there is sufficient runway left.
I didn’t because I don’t have a subscription.
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Old 10-24-2020, 05:32 PM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by Lenticularis View Post
Anyone watch the video put up by the MEC? What’s your take? I got the impression the seed is being sowed for a big bankruptcy somewhere and y’all better get ready for the domino effect.
Keep in mind HK himself said he was the most pessimistic analyst out there of the bunch. Let’s hope his outlook proves overly gloomy. Not saying he was all wrong about bankruptcies coming next year, but I think nothing is set in stone yet. AA is the canary in the coal mine of the majors and they aren’t coughing just yet.

Loved it when he teed off on stock buybacks.
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Old 10-24-2020, 07:21 PM
  #15  
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One goes in they all go in.
UAL started the parade last time and by virtue of the unprecedented years in the process was instrumental in forcing the others to file.
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Old 10-24-2020, 07:55 PM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by CLazarus View Post
Keep in mind HK himself said he was the most pessimistic analyst out there of the bunch. Let’s hope his outlook proves overly gloomy. Not saying he was all wrong about bankruptcies coming next year, but I think nothing is set in stone yet. AA is the canary in the coal mine of the majors and they aren’t coughing just yet.

Loved it when he teed off on stock buybacks.
Pretty animated character. I thought he looked like a bearded Jerry Maquire (young Tom Cruise) Was expecting a "SHOW ME THE MONEY!!" or "Help me help you".
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Old 10-24-2020, 08:01 PM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets View Post
I didn’t because I don’t have a subscription.

days of cash remaining at 3rd qtr reported cash burn....

SWA 910
DAL 897
UAL 548
AMR 188
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Old 10-25-2020, 04:47 AM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by guppie View Post
days of cash remaining at 3rd qtr reported cash burn....

SWA 910
DAL 897
UAL 548
AMR 188
Most up to date: American 520

Burning 30m/day
15.6b liquidity

The company’s third-quarter pro forma liquidity balance is approximately $15.6 billion and it expects to end the fourth quarter with more than $13 billion

Last edited by Al Czervik; 10-25-2020 at 05:00 AM.
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Old 10-25-2020, 05:41 AM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by Al Czervik View Post
Most up to date: American 520

Burning 30m/day
15.6b liquidity

The company’s third-quarter pro forma liquidity balance is approximately $15.6 billion and it expects to end the fourth quarter with more than $13 billion
The 3Q results said AA was still burning 44M /day at the end of the 3Q. With 8B required as a floor to enter bankruptcy, that gives AA roughly 6 months at current burn rates.
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Old 10-25-2020, 06:15 AM
  #20  
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I don't think Hunter is right this time. One of the lessons learned through the last round of bankruptcies is that the those who can stay out of bankruptcy are also huge beneficiaries in other ways. Southwest and Jetblue were able to grow leaps and bounds almost unimpeded for about five years. Then it became tough again as the new lean and mean legacies went on the hunt but that five years was huge for them.

So if AAL goes chapter 11, Do Delta and United want to shrink also in bankruptcy, albeit short term, or do they want to take advantage of AAL's weakness while they reorganize?
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