that is a good point. The first one into Bankruptcy could just chum the waters. Everyone else could just go into a frenzy scooping up all of their slots, planes and market share, basically making it impossible to survive.

Hunter didn’t say if one goes we all go but he did say one bad player can bring down the entire industry. How far down will an airline that keeps prices low and floods the market bring everyone else? That length of time and the damage inflicted may leave the others without a choice.

Something to consider is that the bankruptcy laws have changed since the last time that the airlines filed. It’s supposed to reduce significantly the controls that the Companies had last time. If implemented that way, companies are going to be less willing to file.

Until domestic and international COVID restrictions are lifted, there really won’t be very much demand. When they do come down there will most likely be a fare war while airlines compete to recover, maintain, or gain market share. Loads may improve, but revenue will lag behind for quite a while. The demand may be there to fill the seats and keep our jobs, but the revenue will be less and making improvements coming out of this will be slow. I’m settling in for another lost decade.

Normally BK is used to address a cost issue, not a revenue issue - I still wonder what levers would be used to further reduce cash burn without shrinking into oblivion. Also Wall Street has been obsessed the past few years with capacity discipline - thinking it creates pricing power. Unfortunately in the leisure space, you still have to compete against your irrational competitors (NK/F9/Norwegian...). In that world, market share / size is key, because you can’t just charge more in economy because DL/AA are ‘full service.’ AA tried that when NK was aggressive in DFW, and AA was taken to the cleaners.

I still thought it was a good presentation, and helpful to hear the other side.

unfortunately, I think the next levers that AA could pull to lower costs will involve parking planes (777s and older airbii) and closing hubs. Not sure what else they could do. Not saying this will happen, but absent a recovery I think this is the route all majors will go

maybe if contracts are coming up with regional carriers they could not be renewed, but that’s about it that I can think of

Passing on what Parker said after Q3 results.

Keay said that essentially airlines can’t afford to shrink because of the cash flow needed to service debt, but also that closing hubs is an option. Seems contradictory to me. He should also realize any reduction in a major city will just be filled by another airline.

He also thought it was crazy that no one has cancelled aircraft orders.

A350 base in CLE. It could happen.

Parker has never been able to be honest about his companies Financials. His statement completely contradicts the data.

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Well he drinks a lot...