xDarkwingx

When I took the bid I was projected to be at approx 62-64 pct. As a commuter that was good enough for me…then the company cut a huge number of positions off (unfilled vacancies which still is amazing to me) and I dropped to 77 pct. Still could hold a line but that’s a tough sell as a commuter which is why I’m considering bidding off before my class date and waiting another 6-12 months. Any advice gladly taken. Thanks for your time.

CLazarus

I think you are probably on the mark. I've been comparing the Min-Max numbers from the vacancy that just closed today against PC's WB manning targets in his last CRU (Sep 21). Manning in the 787 fleet has pretty much hit those targets, and much of the 756 fleet has as well (EWR 756 FO is an exception, falling about 80 short). On the other hand, 777 FO is short of target across the board. (approx -140 in SFO, -100 EWR, -65 DCA, -20 IAH) Except for SFO, even 777 CA is somewhat short. What that suggests to me is that there is going to be less 777 flying in general, and a lot more of it than usual will be unaugmented hub-to-hub or HI flying.

That all said, I think domestic demand is going to be high enough to keep the flying 777 fleet pretty busy. Like xDarkwingx, I've watched in dismay as my projected seniority has slid since I put in my bid. I'm staying put, but am resigned to a less desirable schedule for a while.

Dave Fitzgerald

Yes, sorry, I was speaking about SFO.

Sunvox

Just to add a little data. I have scheds from June 2017 with which to compare. EWR 777 Mar22 block hours about 6000. EWR 777 Apr22 block hours about 8000. EWR 777 Jun17 block hours 24612.

XHooker

This caught me off guard. I looked at the system staffing report and was surprised by what I saw. I had incorrectly assumed 777 flying was down roughly equally across the system and actually thought SFO might have taken a larger hit because it's more dependent on Asia flying than EWR. Actually, as has been said, Newark has taken a much larger hit in 777 flying than SFO. Has anyone heard a reason for the imbalance?

horrido27

While it will be great to see these aircraft get back online (sometime this year), everyone probably needs to hold on to their hats (if you're wearing one!)

This was just posted today-
United Airlines, Inc. ("United"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. ("UAL" and, together with United, the "Company"), is providing an update regarding its financial outlook for first quarter and full year 2022 and establishing adjusted pre-tax income1 outlook for second quarter 2022.

In the period following the peak in COVID-19 case counts associated with the Omicron variant in January 2022, demand for travel has exceeded the Company's previous expectations. System bookings for future travel have improved close to 40 points since the first week of 2022 and business traffic has increased more than 30 points since the peak of the Omicron impact in January 2022. The Company now expects first quarter 2022 total operating revenue to be near the better end of previous guidance of down between 20% and 25% versus first quarter 2019. As a result of the strong revenue environment and based on a second quarter 2022 average fuel price2 per gallon of approximately $3.50, the Company continues to expect positive adjusted pre-tax income1 in second quarter 2022.

As a result of the impact of the Omicron variant early in the year, as well as additional flight cancellations associated with current geopolitical conditions, the Company now expects first quarter 2022 capacity to be down approximately 19% versus first quarter 2019, below our previous guidance of down between 16% and 18%. As a result of this decrease in capacity, the Company now expects first quarter 2022 CASM-ex3 to increase approximately 18% versus first quarter 2019, as compared to our previous guidance of an increase of between 14% and 15%. In addition, the Company now expects its fuel price2 per gallon to be approximately $2.99 for first quarter 2022.

In response to several macroeconomic factors including rising fuel prices as well as expected aircraft delivery delays, the Company has reduced its total capacity plan for the full year 2022 to be down in the high single digits versus full year 2019.

On March 15, 2022, the Company is presenting at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference with an accompanying investor presentation that includes a business update on the COVID-19 recovery. A copy of the investor presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.

This on top of the latest union blastmail that had their Economic Analysis would suggest things are not a rosy as some would have you believe.

Just food for though~
Always
Motch
FS, FP & FtC

Seneca Pilot

And then Delta Saya this. Makes one wonder who's crystal ball is most accurate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2022/03/15/delta-air-lines-exec-says-demand-has-never-recovered-so-quickly/

Boeing Aviator

Here are the numbers from the March Council 005 LSC update.

Total CREDIT for EWR 777 March ’22 is approx. 6,912 hours, includes 122 hours DH. System wide there are only 31,793 hours of credit. SFO has 15,890 hours of credit, DCA at 1634 and IAH at 7,356. Comparatively, the 787 has about 57,000 hours over 7 domiciles.



Nearing the end of the month there are a few domestic SFO trips that are showing jets with the PW engines.



2022

Feb – 8240 Jan - 8087

2021

Dec – 8594 Nov – 7230 Oct – 11605 Sept – 11584 Aug – 9210

Jul – 10152 Jun – 9622 May – 7,392 Apr – 6,080 Mar – 12,700

Feb – 12,000 Jan – 10,350

horrido27

Guess we'll know in a month or so, how we did in the 1st quarter. But the interesting thing in the two articles is that the Delta average for fuel is listed at $2.80 per gallon and ours is listed at $2.99. .19 cents per gallon is kinda a big difference.
Guess it's safe to say that- another quarter of not seeing that 5% raise increase~

Always
Motch

PS) Hopefully the UK and Islands help our recovery.. but mainline Europe is still an unknown and we do now expect the Pacific to be (probably) stagnant again this year. Wonder if our Business travel will pick up..

Hedley

We also have a ton of covid debt to pay back with interest. That 5% raise may be all we see for a while under these conditions. Contract 2023, 2024…….