Delta truly leads the way
05-25-2023 | 09:14 AM
#21
On Reserve
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 82
Likes: 0
I think your analysis is pretty accurate.
Pros for mediation:
It will...eventually bring management to the table. Key word...eventually.
A strike vote after a year in mediation would actually mean a real threat, even if the government has an unofficial mandate to not release(that would be illegal, but it's the government, right?)
Cons for mediation:
The heavy lifting has already been done by Delta (thanks widget people) and any mediator won't push for us to have much more than DL.
Prior to DLs (and now a more than likely AA vote) mediation would have been smart, but our MEC dropped the ball and picked up a TUMI, which really hurt us.
Mediation won't move the ball forward in any meaningful way, but has a very real threat of extending our negotiations for another year or 2.
Bottom line IMO - we missed the mediation boat under the last MEC. We should have been screaming for this at the beginning of 2022, then we'd have been in mediation for a while now. SWA filed for mediation back in Sep 22. Perhaps we should have filed then, but our MEC was in the midst of recalls and mudslinging, so disfunctional at best.
We had to do a purge at our MEC and that honestly cost us a year of pay and benefits. Only some were screaming for mediation back then as we were all "hoping" management would see the light because SK said we'd only take 2 weeks.
Personally I think we have 2 choices:
1) Push SK for an "acceptable" AA type deal now. Maybe we see Delta "equal".
2) Punt and file for mediation and basically sit in limbo for another year or 2
Here's 2 things that I think will happen if #2 happens:
1) Large numbers of LCAs and instructors will quit and return to normal line flying, guys will bid down to WB FO from NB CA because they know they aren't going anywhere. They will have to rebuild the TK ranks which will take about 1-2 years, and will be much harder since the current UPA is not commuter friendly.
2) United Next will be significantly handicapped to the tune of large #s of delayed or cancelled deliveries
If this happens, pilot motivation will be crushed, ALPA will become much more militant and United will once again be a joke of an airline since the pilots won't be pulling on the same rope to help make the company better.
SK is playing with fire here. He's trying to proverbially "thread the needle" instead of paying up. He's a self proclaimed "gambler" at heart and he thinks saving $200 million over the next 4 years is worth it to him because he wants to line his management team's pockets.
IMO we get SK and management to sign off on a "super negotiation" the way DL did last fall. From what I understand they all met for 2 weeks in Charlotte and didn't leave till the NC and MEC signed off on an AIP. We don't have a mediator to force the hand, but we tell them that if we can't agree by Jun 14th, they will file for mediation and tell pilots that by doing so we "Don't expect a contract for another 2 years"... That will be the key to in essence breaking the United Next plan for the next 2 years, which is SK's baby. We don't want to break United Next, and neither does SK, but I think we all know that is our leverage, but it's leverage that in essence will be "cutting off our nose to spite our face". Do we want that? TBH, I think a final survey needs to go out and if the majority wants to trash United next, so be it.
We have to threaten the United Next plan in a meaningful way. We can't tell guys what to do, but if we punt and go to mediation, we send a message that we won't see anything for years. This is the only "real" leverage we have and in the end will probably only get us an extra 2-3% over Delta assuming the economy recovers and doesn't tank. With goodwill lost, we will never truly become a powerhouse like the United Next plan delivers and likely SK will be replaced in a year or 2. That's reality IMO.
Pros for mediation:
It will...eventually bring management to the table. Key word...eventually.
A strike vote after a year in mediation would actually mean a real threat, even if the government has an unofficial mandate to not release(that would be illegal, but it's the government, right?)
Cons for mediation:
The heavy lifting has already been done by Delta (thanks widget people) and any mediator won't push for us to have much more than DL.
Prior to DLs (and now a more than likely AA vote) mediation would have been smart, but our MEC dropped the ball and picked up a TUMI, which really hurt us.
Mediation won't move the ball forward in any meaningful way, but has a very real threat of extending our negotiations for another year or 2.
Bottom line IMO - we missed the mediation boat under the last MEC. We should have been screaming for this at the beginning of 2022, then we'd have been in mediation for a while now. SWA filed for mediation back in Sep 22. Perhaps we should have filed then, but our MEC was in the midst of recalls and mudslinging, so disfunctional at best.
We had to do a purge at our MEC and that honestly cost us a year of pay and benefits. Only some were screaming for mediation back then as we were all "hoping" management would see the light because SK said we'd only take 2 weeks.
Personally I think we have 2 choices:
1) Push SK for an "acceptable" AA type deal now. Maybe we see Delta "equal".
2) Punt and file for mediation and basically sit in limbo for another year or 2
Here's 2 things that I think will happen if #2 happens:
1) Large numbers of LCAs and instructors will quit and return to normal line flying, guys will bid down to WB FO from NB CA because they know they aren't going anywhere. They will have to rebuild the TK ranks which will take about 1-2 years, and will be much harder since the current UPA is not commuter friendly.
2) United Next will be significantly handicapped to the tune of large #s of delayed or cancelled deliveries
If this happens, pilot motivation will be crushed, ALPA will become much more militant and United will once again be a joke of an airline since the pilots won't be pulling on the same rope to help make the company better.
SK is playing with fire here. He's trying to proverbially "thread the needle" instead of paying up. He's a self proclaimed "gambler" at heart and he thinks saving $200 million over the next 4 years is worth it to him because he wants to line his management team's pockets.
IMO we get SK and management to sign off on a "super negotiation" the way DL did last fall. From what I understand they all met for 2 weeks in Charlotte and didn't leave till the NC and MEC signed off on an AIP. We don't have a mediator to force the hand, but we tell them that if we can't agree by Jun 14th, they will file for mediation and tell pilots that by doing so we "Don't expect a contract for another 2 years"... That will be the key to in essence breaking the United Next plan for the next 2 years, which is SK's baby. We don't want to break United Next, and neither does SK, but I think we all know that is our leverage, but it's leverage that in essence will be "cutting off our nose to spite our face". Do we want that? TBH, I think a final survey needs to go out and if the majority wants to trash United next, so be it.
We have to threaten the United Next plan in a meaningful way. We can't tell guys what to do, but if we punt and go to mediation, we send a message that we won't see anything for years. This is the only "real" leverage we have and in the end will probably only get us an extra 2-3% over Delta assuming the economy recovers and doesn't tank. With goodwill lost, we will never truly become a powerhouse like the United Next plan delivers and likely SK will be replaced in a year or 2. That's reality IMO.
05-25-2023 | 11:22 AM
#22
Bent over by buybacks
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,581
Likes: 564
Not exactly. In fact, how did you say it, you "missed the mark by a wide margin."
DALPA and Delta are contractually compelled to jointly file for mediation 90 days after the amendable date. In theory this prevents eternal slow rolling by mgmt. Had nothing to do with "DALPA [becoming] more entrenched." Anyway, I view it as a positive when my bargaining agent is "entrenched" against an anti-union cheapskate mgmt team.
Mediation isn't the boogeyman Kirby is trying to make it out to be. He's jedi mind-tricking the United pilot group. It is the ONLY path to a legal job action, or at least the credible threat of a job action. If UALPA had filed for mediation 90 days after their amendable date, or as soon as the Tumi TA tanked, think about how much closer a deal would be...especially after the NMB saw what one of UAL's "peers" negotiated.
Recommend UALPA consider a similar provision.
Last edited by StoneQOLdCrazy; 05-25-2023 at 11:33 AM.
05-25-2023 | 12:15 PM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,108
Likes: 0
Just my opinion.
I’m hearing from several sources that the total applications at AA, UAL and DAL is less than 500. Yes, 500. That covers about 5 weeks of hiring.
Now that DAL and AA have vastly better contracts it will have an impact on United recruitment.
Kirby above all else, wants to grow massively. Pilots are so focused on how big a deal we are. The fact is we are just an expense. 3% of Kirby’s week.
The good news is he needs a massive amount of new pilots. There is no way he will scale back his plan to take over the world. His ego is too big and the planes are coming. Hot and heavy.
You hold all the cards. Ignore the surrender moneys and relax.
The world is going your way.
I’m hearing from several sources that the total applications at AA, UAL and DAL is less than 500. Yes, 500. That covers about 5 weeks of hiring.
Now that DAL and AA have vastly better contracts it will have an impact on United recruitment.
Kirby above all else, wants to grow massively. Pilots are so focused on how big a deal we are. The fact is we are just an expense. 3% of Kirby’s week.
The good news is he needs a massive amount of new pilots. There is no way he will scale back his plan to take over the world. His ego is too big and the planes are coming. Hot and heavy.
You hold all the cards. Ignore the surrender moneys and relax.
The world is going your way.
05-25-2023 | 03:46 PM
#24
Line Holder
Joined: Aug 2021
Posts: 934
Likes: 22
Just my opinion.
I’m hearing from several sources that the total applications at AA, UAL and DAL is less than 500. Yes, 500. That covers about 5 weeks of hiring.
Now that DAL and AA have vastly better contracts it will have an impact on United recruitment.
Kirby above all else, wants to grow massively. Pilots are so focused on how big a deal we are. The fact is we are just an expense. 3% of Kirby’s week.
The good news is he needs a massive amount of new pilots. There is no way he will scale back his plan to take over the world. His ego is too big and the planes are coming. Hot and heavy.
You hold all the cards. Ignore the surrender moneys and relax.
The world is going your way.
I’m hearing from several sources that the total applications at AA, UAL and DAL is less than 500. Yes, 500. That covers about 5 weeks of hiring.
Now that DAL and AA have vastly better contracts it will have an impact on United recruitment.
Kirby above all else, wants to grow massively. Pilots are so focused on how big a deal we are. The fact is we are just an expense. 3% of Kirby’s week.
The good news is he needs a massive amount of new pilots. There is no way he will scale back his plan to take over the world. His ego is too big and the planes are coming. Hot and heavy.
You hold all the cards. Ignore the surrender moneys and relax.
The world is going your way.
05-25-2023 | 05:38 PM
#25
Thread Starter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 309
Likes: 0
just a line slug so who knows but it sounds credible.
05-25-2023 | 06:27 PM
#26
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 532
Likes: 10
Are you cereal? With 1000s of Air Force, Navy, Marines, Army, Regional, Bizjet, and LCC pilots literally doing nothing but grinding for hours and filling out apps for a major, having only 500 applicants in the United cue at the end of this summer sounds credible to you?
05-26-2023 | 03:31 AM
#27
Thread Starter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 309
Likes: 0
Are you cereal? With 1000s of Air Force, Navy, Marines, Army, Regional, Bizjet, and LCC pilots literally doing nothing but grinding for hours and filling out apps for a major, having only 500 applicants in the United cue at the end of this summer sounds credible to you?
And no, I’m not “cereal”, just Shirley.
05-26-2023 | 05:48 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 114
Likes: 0
They understand the value in operational performance. Why chase pennies and lose dollars. I firmly believe SK over hired pilots on the basis of “growth”, but knew in his back pocket he could drag pilot negotiations past the summer with little repercussions dealing with staffing issues due to upset pilots.
I also saw on FB you still got pilots handing out their United business cards to first class passengers and giving welcome aboard announcements using their full names. So it looks like the fairytale growth story while cheating you out of QOL and pay is working.
I also saw on FB you still got pilots handing out their United business cards to first class passengers and giving welcome aboard announcements using their full names. So it looks like the fairytale growth story while cheating you out of QOL and pay is working.
05-26-2023 | 09:58 AM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 4,099
Likes: 86
Are you cereal? With 1000s of Air Force, Navy, Marines, Army, Regional, Bizjet, and LCC pilots literally doing nothing but grinding for hours and filling out apps for a major, having only 500 applicants in the United cue at the end of this summer sounds credible to you?
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