What is the new normal?

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05-27-2023 | 07:36 PM

#11

ThumbsUp

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Brickfire

A similar mean and median mean the curve is relatively symmetrical. It doesn’t tell you how wide it spreads.

10 guys age 34, 10 guys 35, 10 guys 36
10 guys 24, 10 guys 35, 10 guys 46

Both have the same mean and median

What I’m saying is when people say “what’s normal” they aren’t asking what’s average, they’re asking at what point getting hired is plausible without especially good luck.

given that the minimum hire age is twelve years under 35 and the maximum age is 25+ years over 35, a mean/median of 35 means a lot of 20-something guys are getting hired.

Especially good luck is not the average. Those are the outliers… averages are what indicate where the “normal” person is getting hired. Any deviation from that isn’t “normal.” While age isn’t the perfect descriptor of flying experience, it probably correlates pretty well. The std dev is pretty tight too. Under 30 is 20%, 60% is 30-40.

I don’t think people are asking for the bare minimums as those are already, well, the minimums.

What we’ll never know are the demographics of in the applicant pool, which itself can shape the CJO pool. I would guess there are plenty of civilians that self-eliminate by not applying early enough. Military pilots usually don’t have the option to apply in their 20s.

05-27-2023 | 08:52 PM

#12

Nucflash

Orbis Non Sufficit

Joined: Oct 2015

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Lots of new hires who were previously Skywest captains….but only for about 6 months.

05-27-2023 | 10:22 PM

#13

Sniper66

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From: Captain

Let’s not forget

35 or so years ago most new hires were under 30

some airlines would not even look at applicant over 30

05-28-2023 | 01:58 AM

#14

Softpayman

Line Holder

Joined: Feb 2013

Posts: 1,295

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From: CA

Having a heartbeat, a good attitude, a rad Instagram page and preferably few failures that you can tell us about with a great attitude.

What? You've been flying 121 since before covid? Woah we got an old salty dog here!

05-28-2023 | 02:07 AM

#15

John Carr

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Joined: Jul 2013

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Quote:

Originally Posted by three1five

I got hired without any turbine time because I was able to substitute 15 years of driving cars with manual transmissions, so I’d say the new normal is pretty rad

Similar/same, but it was more competitive when I was hired.

I was able to check the “3 on the tree” box though. Pretty sure that did it.

How times have changed….

05-28-2023 | 04:09 AM

#16

Nucflash

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Joined: Oct 2015

Posts: 788

Likes: 10

Quote:

Originally Posted by three1five

I got hired without any turbine time because I was able to substitute 15 years of driving cars with manual transmissions, so I’d say the new normal is pretty rad

People with manual tranny time should automatically get the guppy.