New vacancy bid out with:

EWR 787 Cap 10
EWR 756 Cap 20
DEN 737 Cap 50
EWR 737 Cap 100
MCO 737 Cap 15
ORD 737 Cap 50
SFO 737 Cap 75
Den 320 Cap 20
Ord 320 Cap 10

EWR 756 FO 30
DEN 737 FO 25
EWR 737 FO 100
IAH 737 FO 50
LAS 737 FO 6
MCO 737 FO 15
ORD 737 FO 60
SFO 737 FO 75
Den 320 FO 20
IAH 320 FO 10
ORD 320 FO 10

Going to be a bunch of unfilled Captain assignments again.

 

maybe……training is in JAN and FEB. this is when the hold outs all claim they will pull the trigger.

Zach’s analysis of where we are for summer staffing could be tough to swallow…..everything is staffed except for the NBs. Junior pilots may jump rather than spending another year on reserve.

 

Now that they can mandatory fill them with new hires, no more 10 737 CA vacancies at SFO and EWR. What it may do is get more sr. guys on the fence to go over because they know the vacancies might be filled instead of moved to another base.

 

They can't mandate captain slots in the timeline that this bid intends to train. As of now, new hires bidding those slots will still need to be off probation and have 500 hrs at United. If they were to use the 9-K training footprint, they couldn't train until August at the earliest.

 

Yes. The rebalancing from IAH has begun.

 

correct Shapiro basically said it in his memo. They will rebalance the flying to where it naturally flows……everything will be backfilled until the pegs are in place then everything that is way outsized (IAH 737) will shrink with attrition.

 

This is a true statement.

However, the company also knows this and they are playing the long game here.

Put out a massive number of NB Cap bids now that includes your expected need much further down the road than you would normally put out knowing that a great many will go unfilled. Then assign those to new hires now and train them as FOs. Those folks will end up going to training on the Captain slot next Fall or Winter (24-25).

Given the deliveries we have coming this is a virtual no risk scenario for the company. As others of have said, the company will hope it can get some more senior folks to bid in the short term as the base balancing fest from the last couple of years will not be needed anymore. The re-growth of SFO and EWR are much more likely now, so the fear of nobody coming in behind you is greatly diminished.

 

exactly this……and when the music finally stops there may not be furloughs or displacements but there may be years of only a handful of upgrades while people decades junior to you are CAs.

i would not recommend bypassing upgrade any longer if you have a desire to be a CA…..just my 2 cents. It’s time to get to the seat and base you want and ride out the chaos.

 

You act like retirements aren't going to continue accelerating. I think there will be plenty of opportunities to upgrade in the future. We may not be seeing a vacancy bid every month, but there will still be opportunities.

 

The retirements are the reason furloughs are probably not on the table if things go moderately sideways.