In regards to American vs United, I've done some research and would wondering if the experts on here could fact check what I'm seeing. All of this comes with the caveat that there is no crystal ball and living in base is always the best option.

A lot of people on APC are saying that the bulk of United's hiring is done while a good amount of American's hiring is ahead of it, so could that be a deciding factor in picking American over United?

United is trying to grow right now so it appears the current hiring is based off expanding their business where at American they seem to be modernizing their fleet and replacing the Captains that are above 60 and are about to retire. Sustaining their operation at American instead of trying to grow the way United is.

 

Both UAL and AA are done hiring 40 year old future widebody captains. Americans latest orders are to replace domestic aircraft they retired during Covid, and to buy more RJs. United's orders are to correct years of neglect of its domestic network as well as expand to replace international market share caused by OAL pullbacks during Covid.

American doesn't think it can really grow while United thinks it can. Much of these different philosophies are due to how each airline generates revenue. American has had strong domestic focus, particularly with its usage of RJs while United traditionally had a strong international focus which ended up biting them when US domestic travel came back well before international travel during the pandemic.

 

Unless COVID 2.0 breaks out or another Black Swan event hits soon, UAL's hiring is nowhere near done. We've only taken on a fraction of the aircraft we have on order simply to replace all of the RJs that have been parked, and pilot retirements are ongoing. Check back on what APC is saying in 5 years.

 

Right I saw somewhere I think 230 deliveries in 2024 (barring Boeing failures) some of that hiring is done already, some isn’t. I foresee 2500 a year being the norm until some event occurs or the regionals are reduced to small town hops.

 

United has over 4000 pilots retiring between now and 2030. It's not as many as AA, but it's roughly 25% of the seniority list.

 

You could be right about the 40 year old wide body captains. But also keep in mind in 20 years from now we are going to be seeing planes that aren't even invented yet. The 787 will be 30 years old by then and obsolete. Thats how old the first 777's are now. A lot can happen and will happen economically and logistically probably in just the next 10 years alone. So while it looks that way now I wouldn't bet on it being the end result.

 

So the exact words that have been said to me by Captains at the ULCC I am at is that "United hires deep and then furloaghs deep". However I just want to fact check that on here with the experts.

Is the consensus on here that is out of date information that does not apply to the current situation at United with the hiring and aircraft purchases? I live in Chicago and would love to come here, it just makes me a bit nervous so that is why I'm asking.

 

No one can answer your question with any accuracy. If a black swan event happens and there are potential furloughs, if you’re junior anywhere, you are at risk.

 

Next time you hear that from a Cpt ask them if they kept their UA rejection letter 😂

Every week you try to read the tea leaves another 70 are ahead of you. Go all in......

And this coming from a guy that was furloughed 7 months after Indoc when I got here. It was still worth it.

 

There are no sure things. United mgmt and our union made specific successful efforts to avoid furloughts during Covid. Not every airline can say that. Present management has been vocal about wanting to make all efforts to avoid furlough in the future as they acknowledge it clearly affects employee goodwill. That statement is probably worth what you paid to post here - they also fully acknowledge that any major black swan is an all bets are off scenario but they look to those as opportunities to bounce back hard. We are also clearly trimming regional lift while buying boatloads of planes.

It sucks to jump to the bottom of a seniority list. But to me there are high risk moves and low risk moves and the jump to the big 3 and a few others seems like a pretty reasonable risk. I have a good friend at a regional who has shied away from making this jump for the past 10+ years due to risk aversion. Now he is actively thinking of applying again. That's 8-10k pilots ahead at every major in that timeframe. They're all good moves. Really they still are even for someone who waited that long. FWIW at UAL we hit I think 2500 newhires this year and we have a massive new training building going up with I think a dozen more sims coming online next year. I don't think that was a billion dollar plus vanity project.