Bingo... Though I will add that the high-J 767 has its place too for now. If a (new) route can pay for that with almost identical premium seat counts, then that route will likely be able to support a 787 in the future. Replacing the 767 high-J with a standard 787-9 upgrades the total passenger experience and gives another 90 econ seats for very little additional direct operating cost (+ ~7% on hourly gas, but much less per pax). The 767 is the perfect "pathfinder" for such medium haul routes. UA is behind on widebody capacity for now, so the 767s (high-J and -400) will likely hang around for some time.

As mentioned, the 757-300 has no replacement either, but it's not nearly as good on CASM as the slightly-fewer-seat A321Neo. The 753 has 17% more seats, but a much larger fuel penalty (~50% more gas!). Increasing frequency (where airport capacity/slots/gates allow) makes more sense than hanging on to a 757-300.

Yes, 764s almost certainly beyond 2030. But the economy and reputation of the company will drive the rest of the fleet as replacements continue to arrive. I agree that the 757 will be used to explore or confirm routes that will work for the XLRs, like the high-J 767 is being used today for the 789s...

One addition that I didn't see announced until later in the afternoon was the introduction of the "Relax Rows" on our planes allowing three coach seats to convert to a lie-flat surface for one or more people (think a couple or parents with kids). Saw an analysis on X about this new product that is quite interesting:

Aakash Gupta • @aakashgupta • 17h

The most profitable seat on a 787 isn't in business class. It's three economy seats with a $40 mattress pad. I've flown the original version on Air New Zealand. United just figured out the math.

A Polaris suite takes the footprint of roughly four economy seats. At $4,000 one-way on a transatlantic route, that's $1,000 per seat-equivalent of revenue. A Relax Row takes three economy seats, sells for $3,000 to $5,000 as a unit, and requires zero cabin reconfiguration. That's $1,000 to $1,700 per seat-equivalent with almost no incremental cost. The margins on a mattress pad and adjustable leg rests versus a lie-flat suite with a privacy door, dedicated galley, and premium meal service aren't even comparable.

Air New Zealand proved this in 2011. Called it Skycouch. Same seat. Same concept. Fifteen years of booking data showing parents choose flat over reclined at almost any price. United licensed the design and locked North American exclusivity.

The timing maps to a ceiling in their premium strategy. United posted $59.1 billion in revenue last year. Premium cabin revenue grew 11% while economy flatlined. But there are only so many rows you can convert to Polaris before you've hollowed out the cabin. At some point you need the 300 economy passengers to fund the aircraft.

Relax Row threads that needle. 200 widebody aircraft. Up to 12 sections per plane. 2,400 units fleet-wide on routes where families will pay anything to let a toddler sleep horizontal for 14 hours. Dynamic pricing at American willingness-to-pay levels on a product Air New Zealand sells for $200 to $1,500.

Six fare classes on a single widebody now: Basic Economy, Economy, Relax Row, Premium Plus, Polaris, Polaris Studio. Each tier reframes the next as reasonable.

They wrapped it in a plushie because "highest-margin seat in commercial aviation" doesn't fit on a boarding pass.

There’s more to casm than fuel costs. Paid for planes can tolerate inefficient layovers, days off etc. the 757 can do hot/high/short better.

and 321neo/max availability is still constrained.

If the 756 class broadly makes sense, the 753 makes sense as part of it

Say it again louder for those in the back of the room.

Doesn’t matter, it’s covered under current scope. Just because they only put 41 seats in a 50 seat jet, it’s still a 50 seat jet.

​​​​​​​This might be the most informative post I’ve read in a while on here. Kudos.

My favorite part is that we are taking 250 planes over the next 2 years which is more planes than any airline in history has taken in a 2 year period. About 50 of these are 787s.

Fleet plan for 2026 shows ZERO 757s being retired even though we are getting XLR deliveries this year. They said eventually we would start retiring some of the 757-200s and the 757-300 they want to fly until 2035 because they are the lowest CASM airplane we have on property.

I hope you're right! Just did 4 Pacific flights in Polaris (SIN and ADL roundtrips for vacation). Had 1D for a couple of those legs and 9A for the others. Never again, because of the issues mentioned above. Wifey was a couple rows back and slept like a baby.

As someone with an interview in the next few weeks, I'm quite excited to see that. Any clue how many of those are Airbus 320-family aircraft?

From article in the first post:

• 47 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners with the Elevated interior
  • 33 will be configured with additional premium seats
• 40 Airbus A321neo Coastliners out of 50 total on order
• 28 Airbus A321XLR out of 50 total on order
• 119 Boeing 737 MAX
• 18 Airbus A321neos

WOW!!!! We’re such innovators :rolleyes: