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Quote:

Originally Posted by SoCalGuy (Post 898772)

Since it's 'topical'.....CAL's December Staffing "8-Ball's" for CA's:
B777: 12/1984
B757/767: 11/1995
B737: 05/2001

Do you mean that these are the seniority dates of the junior Captains? If so, I was hired in 12/97, and there are 23 757/767 Captains junior to me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 13n144e (Post 898216)

Sure. Thanks to Age 65, retirements start kicking back in in 2012. Between 2012 and 2020 UAL projects 1910 retirements, CAL 1777. That's an average of 212.2/yr. for UAL and 197.5/yr. at CAL. UAL has about 6497 active pilots and CAL 4804. That means an average retirement per annum of 3.2% at UAL vs. 4.1% at CAL. If you want to include the UAL furloughees, the percentage retirement at UAL decreases much further.

Unless your on a MC, none of us will have anything to say about it and I won't debate it any further. My point is that I think some CAL guys are getting tired of hearing their career expectations are so paltry compared to those on the UAL list. We disagree. Most are willing to let the arbitrator hash it out when the time comes (and it will), but keep hammering on the lofty UAL career expecations:rolleyes: and there will be more CAL guys willing to sit on POS 02 indefinitely.

Your are very correct that the retirements are as you stated for the next 10 years. However, may point in my original post was that for the bottom third of CAL (post 2005 hire and relatively young), their career expectation extends far,far beyond the next ten years and this is where (2020 and beyond) UAL will retire far,far more than CAL even as a percentage of the individual group. The actaul CAL retirement actually decreases on a pure number standppoint (100's) while UAL is in the 400's. How do you preserve the junior (e.g. twice furloughed) pilot at UAL who expects to jump up 8-9% a year from 2020 on? The CAL pilot in that same time frame would move maybe 3-5%.? No one can predict the "career expectation" of growth/market share etc. and that is why those arbitrators really ignore that. It seems that the only fact that one can expect is the retirement numbers. Shouldn't that be preserved for each and then let the chips fall from those facts?

Quote:

Originally Posted by hjflyer (Post 899020)

Do you mean that these are the seniority dates of the junior Captains? If so, I was hired in 12/97, and there are 23 757/767 Captains junior to me.

The hire dates of the most junior staffed captains from the perm bid that closed in September:

CLE 737 CA 7/98

GUM 737 CA 5/05

IAH 737 CA 11/98
IAH 756 CA 5/90
IAH 777 CA 10/84
IAH 787 CA 6/84

EWR 737 CA 8/98
EWR 756 CA 10/95
EWR 777 CA 3/86

Quote:

Originally Posted by EWRflyr (Post 899055)

The hire dates of the most junior staffed captains from the perm bid that closed in September...

Just so everybody is on the same page here, those are the junior pilots who were able to bid into those bases. There are junior captains who were already in many of those bases, in some cases by a few years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hjflyer (Post 899020)

Do you mean that these are the seniority dates of the junior Captains? If so, I was hired in 12/97, and there are 23 757/767 Captains junior to me.

Go to CCS and look under 'staffing' for DEC. The number's I presented are active pilots for Decemeber per CCS. I have not taken into consideration those who 'have' the award, and NOT trained.....ACTIVE pilots is what I was looking for. Something that is 'actually' happening....not awarded it....and still waiting for training. I think we ALL know, unless your in the seat flying it, your NOT 'manning' the equipment. Either your in the 'other' seat, or on a completely different a/c. The be crystal CLEAR....The senority dates were bottom guys on EACH a/c in the LEFT seat, and the dates I presented earlier are their hire dates. Hope that's clear??...JUST going by CCS staffing....it's that's 'not' correct.....then we have a problem Houston.

As far as the B787.....not here, not flying in our colors.....won't even go there as far as 'dates'....thus I did NOT post them (dates).

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoCalGuy (Post 899081)

...The senority dates were bottom guys on EACH a/c in the LEFT seat, and the dates I presented earlier are their hire dates. Hope that's clear??...JUST going by CCS staffing....it's that's 'not' correct.....then we have a problem Houston.

Not sure about the discrepancy, or why it even matters, but hjflyer is correct as there are '98 hire EWR 756 captains who have been in the seat for over three years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 13n144e (Post 898216)

Not sure if it has been posted elsewhere. Hope this helps.

RETIREMENTS PER YEAR AT AGE 65
UAL CAL

2012 - 263 7
2013 - 235 183
2014 - 231 198
2015 - 201 186
2016 - 167 205
2017 - 228 210
2018 - 246 180
2019 - 239 194
2020 - 271 169
2021 - 330 188
2022 - 305 180
2023 - 383 187
2024 - 356 154
2025 - 461 156
2026 - 508 166
2027 - 503 167
2028 - 574 204
2029 - 539 154
2030 - 561 170
2031 - 407 119

Quote:

Originally Posted by XHooker (Post 899102)

Not sure about the discrepancy, or why it even matters, but hjflyer is correct as there are '98 hire EWR 756 captains who have been in the seat for over three years.

Went back and look on CCS under "Reports"--->"Staffing"--->Sort by "System Seniority" and it still gaves Capt T.F. as the 'bottom' guy with the '95 date. If you look again strictly selecting just EWR base (we know most junior B756) on the B756, it shows Capt. S.W. with the '98 hire....my bad....most junior B756 05/98. I guess when looking 'system-wide' under the reports, CCS did not give everyone in CA seat system wide.

Stand corrected, thanks for the follow-up.

OK, maybe I am missing something or just not picked up on it before.

Yes, I know the system bid is what will happen in the future and not current. If those people on the system bid that I listed above are the most junior people showing staffed/awarded in each captain's seat, how is it that someone JUNIOR to those people could possibly hold captain and be holding it for as long as some have stated? Please explain to me as this is a serious question that maybe I need to figure out for bidding purposes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by EWRflyr (Post 899226)

If those people on the system bid that I listed above are the most junior people showing staffed/awarded in each captain's seat, how is it that someone JUNIOR to those people could possibly hold captain and be holding it for as long as some have stated? Please explain to me as this is a serious question that maybe I need to figure out for bidding purposes.

Because a senior pilot cannot displace a junior pilot out of their BES unless the senior pilot is displaced out of theirs.