July class
08-05-2024 | 07:07 AM
#91
Social Media retired.
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,014
Likes: 44
As has been noted we already have created 310 vacancies. That will take us pretty close, but not exceed, where we were only a few years ago. Subtract out expected retirements and our crew force has basically stagnated for the past several years. That said, I spent my weekend flying USPS volume in a MD. We weren’t supposed to be doing that. Rumor (not from a van driver) has it that the September schedule could be very interesting due to insufficient crews to cover the flying. This could drive more growth. Which would be GREAT!
However, just like FedEx ultimately found that USPS contract to be a poisoned chalice. I have concerns about the volume driving some of these extra flights. Let’s just say, I hope we were compensated for all the air being transported from point A to point B. I don’t know how this contract is structured (that’s management’s job), but unless we are able to move our own volume on these flights they may be money losers. Long story short, I don’t see enough data to make a solid case for substantial growth. Yes, I’m definitely arguing the pessimistic view.
However, just like FedEx ultimately found that USPS contract to be a poisoned chalice. I have concerns about the volume driving some of these extra flights. Let’s just say, I hope we were compensated for all the air being transported from point A to point B. I don’t know how this contract is structured (that’s management’s job), but unless we are able to move our own volume on these flights they may be money losers. Long story short, I don’t see enough data to make a solid case for substantial growth. Yes, I’m definitely arguing the pessimistic view.
ImHO, any growth in terms of pilot jobs will come from overseas. 🤷♂️
Re: transporting air. I think that’s where our trucking network comes into play. FX flew for the sake of flying. 5X only flies something as a last resort.
Last edited by FTv3; 08-05-2024 at 07:10 AM. Reason: Add section
08-05-2024 | 08:44 AM
#92
Doing One Pilot's Job
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,891
Likes: 130
No inside baseball, but I expect 310ish over a year will be pretty close to what's ultimately required to move Postal by air given our highly integrated network - assuming the rest of the air network (especially international) remains status quo. We might be short staffed for a few bids but I don't think we're back in late 2021 thru late 2022 territory in that regard.
321P2F holds 14 main deck containers, while 738BCF holds 11.
A333P2F carries MD(ish) cube, for a lot less fuel, but does not currently fit on Worldport wings. 339NEO wingspan is same as 744.
A350F carries 744(ish) cube, for a lot less fuel, has basically same footprint.
767-400 freighter is the sweet spot for footprint/efficiency/commonality, but is vaporware.
Not gonna get too wrapped up in New Shiny, it'll come whenever it comes...
321P2F holds 14 main deck containers, while 738BCF holds 11.
A333P2F carries MD(ish) cube, for a lot less fuel, but does not currently fit on Worldport wings. 339NEO wingspan is same as 744.
A350F carries 744(ish) cube, for a lot less fuel, has basically same footprint.
767-400 freighter is the sweet spot for footprint/efficiency/commonality, but is vaporware.
Not gonna get too wrapped up in New Shiny, it'll come whenever it comes...
08-05-2024 | 01:50 PM
#93
On Reserve
Joined: Nov 2023
Posts: 113
Likes: 10
From: MD-11
If you’re referring to a few years ago being the Covid high, that was an artificial/temporary growth spurt. If you really want to compare then look at pre COVID data. Seem to recall we were headed into a shrinkage at that point.
ImHO, any growth in terms of pilot jobs will come from overseas. 🤷♂️
Re: transporting air. I think that’s where our trucking network comes into play. FX flew for the sake of flying. 5X only flies something as a last resort.
ImHO, any growth in terms of pilot jobs will come from overseas. 🤷♂️
Re: transporting air. I think that’s where our trucking network comes into play. FX flew for the sake of flying. 5X only flies something as a last resort.
08-05-2024 | 03:12 PM
#94
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2024
Posts: 29
Likes: 0
As has been noted we already have created 310 vacancies. That will take us pretty close, but not exceed, where we were only a few years ago. Subtract out expected retirements and our crew force has basically stagnated for the past several years. That said, I spent my weekend flying USPS volume in a MD. We weren’t supposed to be doing that. Rumor (not from a van driver) has it that the September schedule could be very interesting due to insufficient crews to cover the flying. This could drive more growth. Which would be GREAT!
However, just like FedEx ultimately found that USPS contract to be a poisoned chalice. I have concerns about the volume driving some of these extra flights. Let’s just say, I hope we were compensated for all the air being transported from point A to point B. I don’t know how this contract is structured (that’s management’s job), but unless we are able to move our own volume on these flights they may be money losers. Long story short, I don’t see enough data to make a solid case for substantial growth. Yes, I’m definitely arguing the pessimistic view.
However, just like FedEx ultimately found that USPS contract to be a poisoned chalice. I have concerns about the volume driving some of these extra flights. Let’s just say, I hope we were compensated for all the air being transported from point A to point B. I don’t know how this contract is structured (that’s management’s job), but unless we are able to move our own volume on these flights they may be money losers. Long story short, I don’t see enough data to make a solid case for substantial growth. Yes, I’m definitely arguing the pessimistic view.
soooo are you saying i should go to a legacy pax carrier?
08-05-2024 | 05:24 PM
#95
CHILLAX
Joined: Dec 2023
Posts: 211
Likes: 25
As has been noted we already have created 310 vacancies. That will take us pretty close, but not exceed, where we were only a few years ago. Subtract out expected retirements and our crew force has basically stagnated for the past several years. That said, I spent my weekend flying USPS volume in a MD. We weren’t supposed to be doing that. Rumor (not from a van driver) has it that the September schedule could be very interesting due to insufficient crews to cover the flying. This could drive more growth. Which would be GREAT!
However, just like FedEx ultimately found that USPS contract to be a poisoned chalice. I have concerns about the volume driving some of these extra flights. Let’s just say, I hope we were compensated for all the air being transported from point A to point B. I don’t know how this contract is structured (that’s management’s job), but unless we are able to move our own volume on these flights they may be money losers. Long story short, I don’t see enough data to make a solid case for substantial growth. Yes, I’m definitely arguing the pessimistic view.
However, just like FedEx ultimately found that USPS contract to be a poisoned chalice. I have concerns about the volume driving some of these extra flights. Let’s just say, I hope we were compensated for all the air being transported from point A to point B. I don’t know how this contract is structured (that’s management’s job), but unless we are able to move our own volume on these flights they may be money losers. Long story short, I don’t see enough data to make a solid case for substantial growth. Yes, I’m definitely arguing the pessimistic view.
08-05-2024 | 09:57 PM
#97
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2014
Posts: 330
Likes: 0
My buddy flies Purple tailed 777s in Asia. He said for years they were only flying at 30-50% capacity on those triples over there. He was scared of all the waste for years and then Raj came in and chopped a bunch of their international flying immediately. Fred built it hoping the volume would come, but it never did. To compare six purple tails in KIX vs one Brown tail is a horrible example because they are flying turns all over Asia with no volume. Same applies to NRT (which has seen huge airframe reductions), SIN and ICN Over the last 12 months.
08-05-2024 | 10:07 PM
#98
Social Media retired.
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,014
Likes: 44
08-06-2024 | 11:50 AM
#99
maxing the min/Moderator
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,615
Likes: 21
From: 757
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