Pullcord

Does anybody have numbers on how many military pilots are expected to leave and come over to the majors? I know it's a big complex question, but any stats out there?
I'm sure we would all love some hard numbers, but even a guess at how many are in now at all the branches and a historical percentage of those who leave would be a good start.
We know how many retirements are happening over the next 8-10 years, we know how many regional pilots there are.... (The retirements roughly equal the amount of regional pilots who want to move on).... So what affect will the military population have on civs getting hired?

Thanks everyone.

Elvis90

Back in 1997 there was a similar hiring boom. Retention in the Air Force at that time was 27%, meaning 73% of pilots eligible to leave did so. I wouldn't be surprised if that is the case today.

MikeF16

I spoke with the USAF chief of fighter manning last week, he doesn't know the exact answer to that question which probably means nobody knows. He can tell who has gotten out/dropped papers, but there is really no way to predict what people who haven't shown their hand will do. No direct quotes, but I got the feeling he is well beyond extremely concerned. I joked that this year he's paying pilots to leave and next year he'll be paying to bring us back, and if my poker face reading skills are up to par, I probably wasn't too far off the mark. I personally know 4 sitting/graduated squadron commanders who either have, or will drop papers when the time is right. That said, not everybody who leaves the military will go to the majors.

On a related side note, a friend of mine with buds at AFPC just dropped papers to avoid a 365. His AFPC contact told him that for every 365 they try to assign, on average there are 25 officers who wriggle their way out before they actually assign it. That includes a large number of individuals who choose to separate/retire instead of spend a year making sure the general gets his 12 point helvetica on the 1st sub-bullet of each slide.

Ftrooppilot

Info from earlier posts.

I believe it's a mistake to think that ALL separating or retiring military pilots want to fly for the airlines - especially those retiring who have probably been in staff/management positions for ten years. When I retired it was a choice of JR FO at a major airline or a management position paying twice what I made in the USAF. No contest plus I was home every night.

The military (USAF/USN joint programs) train about 1200 pilots a year and I expect that to decrease. Assuming 1200 leave the military each year and 1/3 of them have no desire to fly for the airlines, that leaves about 800 military pilots applying to the airlines. A certain portion of them will go cargo or executive.

There is a "pent up demand" right now where a higher number of military pilots are available. There will be a RIF (reduction in force) in the near future and some younger pilots will separate. One of their problems might be low flight time and no ATP. I Think when it all "settles down" there may be about 600-700 former military pilots available to the industry each year.

This is a guess on my part and would welcome someone else's opinion.

See chart at: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B9Gn...nFr/edit?pli=1

tunes

no rif for any 11X career field. We all VSP'd and they had more applicants to separate than they needed.

Grumble

The only way to even get close would be to take every separation eligible pilot, or even within 2 years.... And ask them what their plans are. No one in their right mind will ever show their cards until they've pulled the trigger, this this is a pointless question and at best any answer is speculation.

GunshipGuy

From my limited information/anecdotal evidence, that kind of pay is a huge outlier. And those who come close to that kind of money do a lot of travel.

Other observations to try to give an outsider a better idea of who's coming out of the military and their typical situations:

Those who are getting out right now but aren't retiring are probably in their 8-14 year stage of their career. Those who are getting out with less than 10 years either have an early out program (someone who's currently still in can jump in here and let us know if that's even in place right now, but I would think it is. e.g. Palace Chase, vsi/ssb?) There are some pilots who are eligible for early retirement, but not all. Those who have been passed over enough for promotion can early retire (or could about six months ago). Of all these I'd guess 70% will try to get a job flying. Of those who could get out free and clear (this is coming from a spec ops point of view) my estimate is 2 our of 5 take the plunge. I'll ask this of some of my friends who are still in (I've been out nearly 7 years now, so I may be losing touch with what younger guys are thinking/doing these days. I'll ask a friend who still has 5 years before he can get out [he would have been out last year if he could have]).

Those who get out after 20 years + are more around 30-40% likely to go for an airline, IMO. A lot of them are non-current from staff jobs and can make good money as contractors doing the same job they did when on active duty. Some go in a completely different direction. But in general they're going to get a job and higher salary than what the 8-14 year member receives. Others may have better metrics, but this is my take on it.

galaxy flyer

At any one time, there are about 20,000 military pilots, only roughly half of which are eligible to leave due to service commitments. But that still leaves a lot applicants who are prime for airline hiring. The 1200 UPT throughput is only USAF, doesn't include USN and US Army.

Also the ARC has a good number of pilots who are always available without separating.

GF

Sputnik

Agree. How long ago was that and how was military pay compared to civilian pay? Mil pay is pretty dang good at the field grade level, I haven't seen anything where I'm going to double my pay. I could get close to what I make now, no way I'm starting much above it.

I'm in an active flying position. Where I sit most are planning on airlines. Couldn't give you an accurate number, but probably higher than 70%. Including retired and separated.

TexanDriver

For what it's worth, all of the bubbas that left my squadron either through VSP or PC are gunning for the airlines.