rickair7777

Yes. Vast changes will be required in aircraft design, certification, and ATC. It won't be a retrofit either, need a clean slate. We're talking billions, probably hundreds of billions.

What comes first, chicken or egg? Who pays?

The airlines would love to get rid of all the pilots, but only if somebody else pays for all the ground work to develop a safe system that works without pilots. They can't see beyond next quarters financials, much less paying for something which will pay off maybe in 50 years.

Why would the government initiate a manhattan project just to eliminate 100,000 pilot jobs and save airlines some money.

The manufacturers aren't going there unless there's a regulatory path to certification, an ATC system which will operations, and airlines willing to commit to buying the things. Oh yeah, and the planes will need extra systems redundancy to allow dispatch reliability in case something breaks...$$$$$

On top of that add 20 years for lack of public acceptance.


Can it be done today with existing UAV technology? Yes, with much lower safety levels...probably several hull losses/month in the US alone. The REALLY REALLY hard part is dealing with relatively unusual but critical situations where a human being can exercise grey area judgement.

mike734

Agreed. But cargo? I'm not so sure.

Mesabah

I think you are looking at it the wrong way. For the new ATC system to work, it would require a pilot to be on the ground to make operational decisions. They want to hard wire ATC right into airline control centers. This gives airlines more operational control, and they will spend the billions to get it. This would also eliminate voice communications with ATC from the cockpit completely. This is the real reason single pilot is certain, because the second pilot has to move to the ground.

ShyGuy

Yeah, because if the guy you are flying with is suicidal, he is going to do it flying with a FFDO? Historical precedence of passenger jetliners shows the suicidal guy waits until you have to go to the bathroom. There are reasons to be made against a single-cockpit pilot operation. A suicidal pilot is not one of them. If one wanted to do it, he could even with two pilots - it just wouldn't be two pilots in the flight deck when it happens.

Re: Egypt Air 990 and Silk Air 185

crxpilot

Single pilot, or no pilot drone airlines will NEVER, EVER, NEVER, EVER happen in our lifetime and probably not even your kids lifetime. Way too much liability can happen with those scenarios. I will get into my self-driving car and kick back in my lazyboy chair as it takes me across the country before I get in a drone airliner. If anyone should worry its city bus drivers, taxi drivers, and garbage truck drivers. I can see those going completely automated in our lifetime.

Firsttimeflyer

Hmmm...so the 64 year old captain is going to now be alert and ready for the 8:30 single pilot trans-con? And then after that he sets up an auto land with guidance from the on ground co-pilot. What happens when at 300' or even lower the captain is looking outside for the runway on a low mins and the autoland fails or on a Airbus you don't get flare at 50' and it crushes into the pavement? Or tower calls go around and the captain is barely conscious from 8.5 hours of boredom with nobody to interact with?
I hope all these questions and many more are seriously considered before they push this technology.

Sr. Barco

Single pilot ops will happen in our lifetime.

An FO I know had a Fed in the jumpseat last year whose sole job for the past 2 years has been working on a complete new set of FARs specific to single pilot 121 ops. The Fed told him this is not a mere rewrite but a ground up, quantum leap in the entire operation. He went on to say they have the rules written and are near approval for long haul, over water, single pilot cargo ops. Sure it will take a while for all parties to spool up but the aircraft technology is already here.

Until we see trains without a conductor we won't see pilotless airliners but single pilot ops is inevitable in my opinion. The upside is no one will ever have to endure 18 years as an FO! Start saving now...

Justdoinmyjob

And how did they manage that without an NPRM?

flaps 9

Agree 100%

All the rest of you have your heads in the sand.

How long will this take you ask?

I bet my new hire class back in 1999 that we would see it before I retire. If I go full term, I'm out in 2030.

Think of me come 1/1/30

Aero1900

This makes a lot of sense. However, what may eventually happen may not follow a logical path. There are single pilot private jets. The FAA has allowed this and become at least somewhat comfortable with it. If Airbus and Boeing build a plane in 30 years that's meant for a single pilot, and can be controlled remotely by a ground operator, I could see the FAA agreeing to it. I'm not sure that's the most likely course of progress, because what the heck is the benefit? The payoff for the airlines isn't there. Fully autonomous airplanes would save way more money, but would be much harder to do and much further down the road.