Fellas, these are stressful times. Let’s not go after one another as it just adds to the stress. The truth is nobody really knows what’s next. This virus could become manageable before we thought possible and we fair better than expected or hang around for a while and throw everyone’s projections into the trash. OTZ may be relaying numbers he’s heard and those numbers may change. We won’t know till it happens. I think we should all assume it’s gonna be ugly this fall and start preparing ourselves for that scenario. If it’s anything less than worse case, good. Until then, we’re on the same team, remember that.

 

Obviously this isn't as deadly as the Spanish flu. But look what ended the Spanish flu. It basically spread around until people either died off or got herd immunity. Vaccines didn't exist until the 40s.

There are only two legit ends to stop this virus:

1. Effective vaccine. This can take 12-18 mos. A long timeframe!

2. Let virus spread (which it already is), and let the people get it. Herd immunity. 98.5% of the population gets it and recovers just fine. Keep the other susceptible/compromised people at home quarantined away safely. This would end the pandemic much quicker. Downside is the hospitals could become overwhelmed, in fact the hospitals are already overwhelmed now.

The Spanish flu was 1918 to 1920 before it was over. Corona came Dec 2019. I really hope we aren't looking at Dec 2021 until this goes away. Let alone the airlines, we're all screwed in every industry (except healthcare).

 

Are you kidding
107 passengers on that leg makes money. That’s a 60% load factor

Sorry this math is so difficult for you.

SWA will drop 100 to 120 aircraft, maybe furlough 1,500

 

My numbers are the plan. We will furlough 100% positive. 600 to 200, most likely 385.... but yes put your head in the sand and pretend we will be hiring this fall.

 

That's the *normal* timeframe.

The US federal government intends to expedite production of a vaccine currently in trials. At some point in the trials, if things are going well, they will deploy the vaccine when/if necessary. They can accept some risk on that.

Think manhattan project, not business as usual at the speed of civil service.

 

Uhhh, ok. I’m not sure how you deduced that I think we’re hiring in the fall? According to your info, AS is looking at anywhere between 600, (worse case) and 200 (best case). If we plan on 600 and it ends up being less than that, that’s good right? That’s less pilots on the street right? The absolute truth is we won’t know the final number until it’s handed down. Even by your own admission you don’t know the real number and are guessing 385. Funny thing about plans is they change. A month ago AS was planning on growing by 6%. That plan changed. I’m guessing that between now and Oct. 1st there will be a number of revisions to the “plan”. We’re working off of projected assumptions at this point. I fully anticipate furloughs and probably a lot of them. If anything less than that happens, I’ll be pleasantly surprised. Is that o.k.?

 

The union podcast clearly points out that what OTZeagle is doing is creating unnecessary anxiety and stress. It also makes clear, as I already pointed out there is no way to know how many furloughed pilots there will be. Nor is there any talk or furloughs as of yet. There is only uncertainty.

OTZeagle has made his true character known to all of us this week. He has taken a moment of extreme stress and anxiety to pile on with worthless predictions that will only hurt others. We should treat him as such.


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how many are the big 3 gonna furlough? Delta numbers specifically?

 

Hear, hear. I'm sure the experts will jump all over me for being a sunny optimist, but even Neil Ferguson dramatically revised the dire Imperial College of London estimates after a few weeks. Some guy telling us exactly what's going to happen come October 1 is suffering from another kind of disease.

 

Lots.

International not coming back soon. AS and SWA maybe not as many.