Come on, Shy. You're always full of ideas. Your posts regarding COVID-19 seem to be.. incomplete. Explaining a problem then sort of trailing off. Very unlike you.

The point is that you can't say what your plan is out loud. I get it. You're being told that we should all get back to work and pretend that this isn't a big deal. For the sake of the economy. For the sake of the COUNTRY even.

But it's short-sighted nonsense. Imagine for a moment what 100 million infected would do to the economy. Think of the combined medical debt associated with that huge burden. Imagine what 2 million dead would do to the morale of this country. That many dead in a short amount of time would absolutely crush us. These aren't made up numbers, that's where this thing goes if it's business-as-usual.

So when you wring your hands about the DJIA being under 20k, think about the bigger picture.

 

Thanks yet again for putting words in my mouth and making this political. I didn't say any of that crap. I didn't say anything about the Dow being under 20k.



But since you asked, here's my take. I'm not buying any of that math because it is all based on incomplete models and best guesses based on localized outbreaks in a city or a cruise ship that are extrapolated out. To use your own words modified, imagine for a moment since December from the first known case, that 100 million were already infected and vast overwhelming majority already recovered thinking it was a cold or a flu. The only reason cases keep increasing in this country is because we are doing more testing and identifying them. True cases could go from 120m to 80m but we won't know that since we're not testing everyone. We are increasing testing so obviously that means an increase in confirmation rates throughout the country. There is no conclusion to be made on what the real infection number is or whether that trend has gone up or down. You could only see that if you test everyone - and we are not.


2 million dead would do to the morale? Seeing how most people are these days, probably nothing - the same morale as after a mass shooting that kills 50. "Oh well, that sucks" and people move on. We would not lose 2 million in a couple months. In America we lose about 3 million a year, net total dead all reasons combined. I don't see any tears or shock spread for 3 million dying. Nor did I see any news articles exclaiming shock at the 35,000 dead from the flu this season. The CNN graphics of 850 dead and 58,000 cases represents only those that have been identified affected and that math shows 1.4% fatality. Consider a whole lot more Americans are already infected and don't get tested and recover on their own (if they get sick enough, they'll go to the hospital and be counted as a COVID infected/fatality). The reality is it seems the actual fatality rate is looking to be around 0.5% to 1% or so, if even that.




There is only one solution to COVID. A full effective vaccine. That is at least one year away, if not longer. We cannot keep the entire country shut down and live like this for one full year. There won't be an economy to return to by then. Nor am I saying open everything up and go back to normal by Easter. Somewhere in there should be a good level ground. People have bills to pay and mouths to feed. At some point they will take matters into their own hands and say eff it to what the government or the media is saying.


And NO, we should not declare martial law in all 50 states enforced by guns from the national guard/military. I can't believe some people actually want that.

There. Happy?

 

Actually yes. That was well thought out and reasonable.
I hope that the predictive models are wrong and that the steps the country is taking will have an impact on the overall total number infected.
I agree with you, we can't all sit in place and wait for a vaccine in 12-18 months. But we can wait until this outbreak is on the downswing. Maybe by then medications or other preventative measures will be developed to allow some return to normalcy.

Until then, we're all just along for the ride. Stay healthy.

 

The comparison to flu deaths really baffles me. One of the consistent complaints we all have about Alaska management is that they manage by metrics and can never make a proactive change. No amount of warning will make a difference. They will only change something if it has already cost them money. Comparing flu deaths to COVID 19 deaths is the same thing. Look....only 850 deaths compared to 35000 for the flu, and then ignore trends like it spreading everywhere, horrible death rates in Italy, and doubling every 3 days in New York. It's been so obvious to anyone with a calculator that this has so much more potential to be worse, but just because it hasn't been so far, let's largely ignore it and hope it goes away so we don't have to spend/loose money. That thought process in the early days is why we will end up more like Italy in the next few weeks than South Korea or China.

 

Not only that.. but thing is just getting started. Usually comparisons are made AFTER the pandemic is over. Not before.

 

Off topic....Is the SEA Airbus base bid still planned for April with the October 1st effective date? I don’t see how the company doesn’t delay this indefinitely with all that is going on. Closing LAX Airbus and opening SEA will cost the company a lot in cross training I would imagine. Thoughts?

 

I know, right. All these people got their problems and dying and stuff, but what's in it for me?

 

Flip side of that equation, the govt is making whole with grants to ensure paying payroll til Sept 30. Huge capacity cuts means everyone sitting around anyway. If I had to guess, I think it still goes forward. And maybe not even 25 at a time, may as well do 75 in one instead of 3 bids. The email said Oct eff date to protect the summer schedule. Now there is no big schedule to speak of.

This virus isn’t going away. The only realistic solution is to wait for a vaccine and that’s at least 12 months away. Until people feel safe from it, forget air travel. Our industry is the first one out, last one in so recovery will be slow. If I had to guess worse case SF closes, all Buses returned on an accelerated schedule, and we go come out smaller on the other side. The same goes for all the other carriers. Even Ed Bastian said he expects Delta will come out leaner when this is over. The industry already suffered from a severe capacity dump. No more stupid base wars (like in SEA). Everyone ends up retreating to and fortifying their core bases. And since everyone comes out smaller, it takes care of the so called pilot shortage.

 

I agree this could go either way. There are limitations to sim availability, more so on the airbus side. The sim in SFO I believe only handles LOFTS, PCs and UPRT for line pilots. Upgrades, transitions and new hires are handled off property and unless credits are used sim time is purchased approx 3 months ahead of time from the various vendors. There is also limitations on the 737 program and how many pilots can be squeezed through. I believe management would have to assume majority of the initial A320 SEA slots would go to transitioning pilots requiring the full course. That will cost money, but like you said it may be better to get it done now.

 

I think we will see Alaska use this opportunity to transition airbus guys to 737. Shift the bus flying to 737 while they train them up. Open SFO base on Boeing instead of the SEA Bus base. Uneducated guess.