Flaps1check

there’s a company webcast Thursday

OTZeagle1

2,600 is a pretty good number, if things don’t turn around somewhat quickly. They just had numbers run for the return of all Airbus aircraft... those numbers are a little more sobering, with the add for dropping everyone to 65-75 hours the needed seniority would be approximately 2350 with the most junior captain left standing around 1250-1300. If you adjust for retirements and LOA, the number of actual furloughs would likely be 350-400 if we return the entire Airbus fleet.

rickair7777

If they over-shrink, and the economy bounces back quickly, they'd lose more market share to anyone positioned to take advantage of the situation... probably not DL, but maybe SW, NL, etc.

9mikemike

The numbers were even worse if we returned all the worn out old 737 fleet...
Just have to wait and see

All Bizniz

The economy will be up again and running long before they manage to get rid of all of the Buses, or worn out old 737s for that matter...

I get it that this is a nasty virus; that the rate of infection is at least 3 times more than normal, and that older folks and those with underlying conditions are at a much greater risk of succumbing to it. However the real reason for the hyped up response by the govts and the medical professions as I understand it, is to "flatten out the curve" so that our hospital system is not overwhelmed over a contracted period of time.

So, the virus will be under control in a few weeks, but the economy will be damaged. My hope is not so badly damaged that Americans will not want, or not be able to get back on airplanes in droves, if for no other reason than to get over our collective cabin fever.

conquestdz

That leaked government briefing that The Times published said they are planning on this being an 18 month deal with several waves of infections. If that pans out, we are just working our way up the first peak.

All Bizniz

Some medical professionals have said that it'll be about 2 to 3 flu seasons before it becomes a non-event (vaccines, herd immunity, etc), so yes, it'll be with us for a while (with several waves), but my hunch (or at least hope) is that in the not too distant future, it will be taken in stride as a manageable hazard, vs the apocalypse that it is being seen as at the moment.

What I'm focusing on is the point where we move from the horrendous loads of 5, 20, 35 pax on a flight, that can't even cover the gas bill, to where we get to 50, 60% load factors and improving...

KnockKnock

How do you define “under control”? Many cities/communities are going to experience the surge in the curve as time goes on. The number of new cases may drop in one region but another region will experience an increase. We as a country have been way too complacent and reactionary. Not enough proactive measures have been enacted. For each rise in cases, the timeline towards recovery is extended and the public will continue to avoid all forms of mass transit. A “couple of weeks” is wishful thinking. The governor’s in each state have already said they’re not going by any expedited timeline trump lays out and he has no control over whether or not the states lift shelter in place orders. I think months is more accurate.

All Bizniz

How do I define "under control"?

See my post #27, just above your post with your question. First paragraph, starting at line 4. (More specifically, growth rate will be slowed/not accelerating.)

Also, check out what I consider a trend towards normalization in that same post (2nd paragraph).

The virus will be under control, and the hysteria WILL (since it's only my opinion, I should really say SHOULD but it's a strong SHOULD) die down in a couple of weeks (6 to 8 perhaps?)

KnockKnock

Ok, so you’re timeline to recovery went from a few weeks to 6-8 (typically considered mos.), in 3 posts. So we’re in agreement that this initial round will most likely take months to settle down. By then we’re facing a very different reality in the airline industry. PAX won’t just line up and buy double the tickets to make up for lost travel the previous 4 months. We’re facing a long slog ahead.