Alaska vs. The Beer Flu
03-24-2020, 09:41 PM
#31
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Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 669
Originally Posted by KnockKnock
Ok, so you’re timeline to recovery went from a few weeks to 6-8 (typically considered mos.), in 3 posts. So we’re in agreement that this initial round will most likely take months to settle down. By then we’re facing a very different reality in the airline industry. PAX won’t just line up and buy double the tickets to make up for lost travel the previous 4 months. We’re facing a long slog ahead.
By extension, 6-8 weeks is only a month and a half to 2 months. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would consider that to be months, under any scenario.
Last edited by All Bizniz; 03-24-2020 at 09:55 PM.
03-24-2020, 09:48 PM
#32
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Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 692
Originally Posted by All Bizniz
Nothing has changed in the original time line I was thinking. Really hasn't. I was thinking 6 - 8 weeks is only a few weeks in the context of how much longer the lingering health and economic effects might be. For example the 18 months, which is being bandied about is approx 72 months and considering the economic effects, this time line could be much longer).
By extension of my position, 6-8 weeks is only a month and a half. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would consider that to be months, under any scenario.
By extension of my position, 6-8 weeks is only a month and a half. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would consider that to be months, under any scenario.
03-24-2020, 11:08 PM
#34
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Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,898
Originally Posted by All Bizniz
The economy will be up again and running long before they manage to get rid of all of the Buses, or worn out old 737s for that matter...
I get it that this is a nasty virus; that the rate of infection is at least 3 times more than normal, and that older folks and those with underlying conditions are at a much greater risk of succumbing to it. However the real reason for the hyped up response by the govts and the medical professions as I understand it, is to "flatten out the curve" so that our hospital system is not overwhelmed over a contracted period of time.
So, the virus will be under control in a few weeks, but the economy will be damaged. My hope is not so badly damaged that Americans will not want, or not be able to get back on airplanes in droves, if for no other reason than to get over our collective cabin fever.
I get it that this is a nasty virus; that the rate of infection is at least 3 times more than normal, and that older folks and those with underlying conditions are at a much greater risk of succumbing to it. However the real reason for the hyped up response by the govts and the medical professions as I understand it, is to "flatten out the curve" so that our hospital system is not overwhelmed over a contracted period of time.
So, the virus will be under control in a few weeks, but the economy will be damaged. My hope is not so badly damaged that Americans will not want, or not be able to get back on airplanes in droves, if for no other reason than to get over our collective cabin fever.
03-24-2020, 11:39 PM
#36
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Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,898
Originally Posted by WutFace
First things first. Stop this outbreak.
Then set up the infrastructure to prevent further outbreaks.
Then set up the infrastructure to prevent further outbreaks.
The only legit answer is a vaccine but that can be 1 year away. We won’t last that long.
03-25-2020, 05:24 AM
#37
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Joined APC: Nov 2006
Position: This side of the dirt.
Posts: 890
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
How do you stop this outbreak? The reality is this thing has been here since January, maybe even December and it has spread. The cases go up every day but that’s only because we’re testing and confirming. How long can we stay shut down and inside our homes to flatten the curve? And once we get out, all it takes is a couple people here and there who were asymptomatic at release time and then spread it again.
The only legit answer is a vaccine but that can be 1 year away. We won’t last that long.
The only legit answer is a vaccine but that can be 1 year away. We won’t last that long.
03-25-2020, 07:52 AM
#40
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Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 669
Originally Posted by av8or
we cant/won’t stop the outbreak without a vaccine. Period. We’re doing what we’re doing now, just to buy us enough time to get the infrastructure (beds, ventilators etc) in place so that we can save more lives by not having to decide who gets a ventilator and who doesn’t. Over time we might see age/health related quarantine... who knows if that’ll work but at some whether the government says its ok or not, folks are gonna go back to work.
This!!!
The hysteria is about not overwhelming the Healthcare System, not about the fatality of the disease (exception to elderly and those with an underlying condition of course). The lethality of COVID19 to the general population (compared to....yes...the FLU 😏
) is not even close...We were slow off the mark but, OUR WAVE of response is starting to build, and will eventually rise to provide the required testing, surveillance, selective quarantining or whatever is appropriate, to match and then blunt the wave of infection rates that is here/coming.
We are not a communist/authoritarian society, so we will not employ the draconian steps that China took to lock down theirs. South Korea's model will be more appropriate, where we test and surveil the hell out of this virus to detect and quickly quarantine those infected, so that the country and rest of us can get on with our lives within a reasonable amount of time....
Last edited by All Bizniz; 03-25-2020 at 08:02 AM.
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