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Old 04-11-2020, 04:55 PM
  #51  
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Originally Posted by Mea25000 View Post
Most analysts are skeptical of B6 viability,
This is a load of horse poop. Please back away from the computer.
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Old 04-11-2020, 05:10 PM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by Mea25000 View Post
Total debt (in billion U.S. dollars) Cash and short-term investment (in billion U.S. dollars) Total debt to EBITDA ratio

Southwest 4 4 0.63
Alaska 3.2 1.5 0.97
Delta 17 3 1.21
JetBlue 3.1 1.3 1.74
United 20 5 2.17
Spirit 3.6 1 2.98
American 33 4 4.04
Looks like you ranked everything based on debt/EBITDA. Which seems misleading right now since everyone is lacking the E, earnings. JBLU looks comparable to ALK based on debt and cash. The majors, with very large debt and cash flow will probably suffer worst.
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Old 04-11-2020, 05:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyby1206 View Post
This is a load of horse poop. Please back away from the computer.

Please supply financial data, analyst upgrades in the last 20 days... not insults and hyperbole.
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Old 04-11-2020, 05:49 PM
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Originally Posted by AK22 View Post
Looks like you ranked everything based on debt/EBITDA. Which seems misleading right now since everyone is lacking the E, earnings. JBLU looks comparable to ALK based on debt and cash. The majors, with very large debt and cash flow will probably suffer worst.
B6 lags ALK significantly on unencumbered assets also.
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Old 04-11-2020, 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Mea25000 View Post
B6 lags ALK significantly on unencumbered assets also.
Pretty sure about 1/3 of both airlines’ fleets are unencumbered.
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Old 04-11-2020, 06:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Mea25000 View Post
Total debt (in billion U.S. dollars) Cash and short-term investment (in billion U.S. dollars) Total debt to EBITDA ratio

Southwest 4 4 0.63
Alaska 3.2 1.5 0.97
Delta 17 3 1.21
JetBlue 3.1 1.3 1.74
United 20 5 2.17
Spirit 3.6 1 2.98
American 33 4 4.04
It’s not a question of current assets and debt: It’s about cash burn rate in a zero revenue environment through Q4/2020. The analyst I was referring to compared the Airlines based on cash burn, assuming zero revenue through Q4/2020. Gotta find the chart, but someone else posted on a United thread I think. Vertical Research Partners.
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Old 04-11-2020, 07:57 PM
  #57  
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Originally Posted by WutFace View Post
More MEA predictions? And it's not even Christmas!!

It would be Christmas for some at our company. I have heard it could end up being something like 5 to 50 aircraft worth of flying to Alaska depending. That’s an honest to god unicorn for many. I guess we will see what happens overs the weekend with the “CARES“ act though.
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Old 04-11-2020, 07:58 PM
  #58  
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Originally Posted by av8or View Post
serious question: What about Alaska would ever give you the idea they have or would ever desire to compete against the Big Four other than from a defensive posture they’re forced into (ala JetBlue west coast, Delta-SEA)?

If I’m wrong correct me but it would appear history shows Alaska’s MO is either low hanging fruit (abandoned Aloha routes) and trying to retain/grow their regional footprint.... not national, not bi-coastal, not international.
I can’t tell if this is a serious post, or perhaps I’m not understanding it with some punctuation missing.

I’m not suggesting that Alaska wants to compete with the Big 3 outside of the PNW, but I think you mischaracterize their growth. The VX merger forced them into competing with the big 3 on transcon routes out of LAX and SFO. They tried and failed on many new routes out of SFO since the merger and all Alaska pilots wish they had succeeded and not withdrawn.

Additionally, not only is their Hawaii flying much greater than the void left by Aloha, but over the past 5-10 years they have grown focus cities in SJC and SAN. Not to suggest that all of the routes they started out of those two cities have been a success, but as an example off the top of my head, they have added mainline flights to, Hawaii, SJD, GDL, PVR, BWI, EWR, JFK, MCO, BOS, AUS.

But you are correct, most of their focus has been growth in their fortress hub in SEA, with many new addition midcon and transcon. Perhaps the newish transcon routes out of SAN and SJC are the low hanging fruit you were referring to.

All I know is that Alaska mainline has been growing steadily over the past 10 years. Pilots just don’t recognize it or acknowledge it, because pilots focus on any regional growth, Alaska doesn’t have mass retirements, nor do they have new glamorous routes/planes, such as 787s flying SFO-PPT or LAX-AKL.
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Old 04-12-2020, 05:07 AM
  #59  
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Originally Posted by Mea25000 View Post
Please supply financial data, analyst upgrades in the last 20 days... not insults and hyperbole.
Accusing me of hyperbole? That’s rich. Ratings downgrades and lowered price targets do not equate to “skeptical of their viability.” If B6 is not viable then you can be damned sure ALK is in the same boat so please climb down from your pedestal.
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Old 04-12-2020, 05:40 AM
  #60  
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Originally Posted by Wingnutt View Post
A little longevity? Think again. How about take the 600+ at AS, then start dropping your most senior VX folks below them and so on. The most senior Legacy VX guys and gals got hammered on that one. I suspect in an AS merger with B6, AS will use the same "Alaska pilot superior career expectation" argument again and win over the arbitrators.

When it comes to bringing two or more pilot groups seniority together and subsequent SLI, the gloves come off.
That is the kind of garbage I certainly didn't mean to start. The "my airline is better than yours" and therefore we should have super seniority stuff. This is just talk here. If it ever came to a merger, and it probably won't, I would trust my merger committee to make a strong argument for Jetblue and counter any arguments from the other side. Thats all we could do.
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