The Anglers wisely waited for Gary Kelly to lead the charge. SWA is going to furlough in 2021 and that alone makes it easier and inevitable that we will too. Just using SWA as a cover.

How would the OneWorld play into that issue of scope?

No idea but if I’m not mistaken OneWorld codeshares with carriers from all over the world that don’t have scope clauses.


Not sure if the American pilots union contract covers this subject


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wouldn't hang your hat on AA scope, the judge might have something to say about that.

To be fair, AA’s scope in a “hypothetical” bankruptcy will still be better than Alaska’s.

Every recovery path is being modeled on an effective vaccine that 70% or more of the population takes. A recent poll showed HALF said they won’t be getting the jab. Can’t say I blame them. This isn’t anti vaccine. This is anti most rushed vaccine in the history of mankind for a virus that kills <0.8% population. People will do their own risk analysis and decide if it’s worth it to them.


Travel is stalled out at 25-35% of pre-pandemic levels and October is almost over, with worldwide hints of the start of the second wave. There is nothing so far to hint a recovery to 80% by next summer.

It doesn’t really matter if half the population doesn’t get the vaccine; the ones who need the shot to feel safe will do so, and that alone will give them enough confidence to at least venture outside their basements. At that point the case numbers become less relevant. This is a fear issue, and nothing more. The vaccine’s placebo effect will be enough.

Week-over-week growth of the 7 day average has been at about 1.25% for the last month. At that rate we get an additional 50% in 40 weeks, right around 4th of July next year. Not saying this will happen, but it’s actually not correct to say we are ‘stalled out’ because the overall trend is positive.

We’re at 45% and climbing.

I'll buy that. I also think 50% by next summer. So where does that leave airlines other than massive furloughs?