​​​​​​​He said an additional 50%..

 

American scope will be bypassed through Alaska. The 190/200 will be flown by horizon with an Alaska flight number with a majority of passengers codeshared from American. Just like that American scope is useless

 

I hope you're right about the travel numbers. In the summer we were starting to recover and then the increase in summer cases along with local quarantine rules (14 day) made the bookings dip and demand went down. If this is the second wave starting and the same thing happens again, we could very well stall. So as long as we are still using phrases like 6 feet, social distancing, avoid crowds, people are not coming back en mass onto planes.

 

Horizon is not getting 195’s

 

Is that 50% in addition to the 35% the industry is currently running? i.e. 85%. I believe that is what he is saying.

Or is it just 50%. A growth by next summer of 50%-35% today = 15% growth from today? I believe that is what you were saying.

I’ve been saying my crystal ball says 75% to 80% summer of 2021.

 

That’s what AS thinks too. All I’m saying is the effects of the second and third wave are not known, but it can very well kill demand like it did in the Summer. Fauci is on CNN talking about what it would take for another lockdown. And Biden is already on record saying if his experts advise him to, he will. If anything like that happens then airline travel will tank again. I’m hopeful for 80%. If we can hit that, no further cuts at Alaska because the whole leave program was based on that level by next summer. But if travel tanks, maybe we get to 50% next summer. If that’s the case then it’s bad news for all airlines.

 

Actually the effects are known, we have lived through it since what mid March? The issue is that the business has to go on, or the money will go find another home. I’m staying positive, still haven’t even come close to the estimate Tony was preaching in the beginning. Numbers are trending, especially to the rock. Also as much as the prom queens hate the product, AH was correct about the cabin preforming well in the good times and also driving revenue in the bad.

 

Would they announce a MAX order during the 3rd quarter results? Or possibly more Central America routes?

 

I tend to agree that additional waves of outbreaks will each have less impact on the economy (and travel) as people get sick of it all, realize that they didn't die (or even get sick) during the previous outbreaks. At least up until the point where lockdowns are imposed again.

 

I somewhat agree. Covid fatigue is setting in and many low risk folks are choosing to live their lives again. Most people aren't going to die from covid so why keep your life on hold for months on end?

Here's the problem for our industry. A rather large minority of the population is at risk or lives with someone who is at risk. These people won't travel until covid is gone. It's that simple. Most people don't need to travel by air and will choose not to until the virus is under control. The airlines live on thin margins, 6 to 11%... If we can't get 25-40% of our usual passengers to come to the airport the airlines will continue to bleed cash and be forced to shrink drastically.

There's an attitude amoung many pilots that people's fear of covid is out of control and unrealistic. You guys are looking at it the wrong way. These people aren't in a panic, they're just making rational choices. Most people don't need to travel and traveling puts you far more at risk for catching the rona than staying at home. It's not a panic choice, it's more like, 'nah, I don't wanna go. Seems like a bad idea." Many aren't afraid of dying, they just don't want to get sick and risk being out of work for weeks. Others rely on grandparents for babysitting and don't want to take the chance that they'll accidentally infect grandma. There are a myriad of logical, rational reasons not to travel due to Covid. It's not left wing media brainwashing, it's common sense.

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