No, not at all, I’m saying when you look at the number of airplanes we will have, and the resulting displacements and downgrades, the attractiveness of this airline drops even more. That being the case I think people will leave if the other airlines, pretty much all of which offer a better deal, continue hiring in large numbers.
I absolutely think the pilots who remain need to do everything possible to attain a vastly improved contract.
Upgrade times at United and Delta are in the 1 year range, American isn’t too much longer, FedEx upgrades are quick as well. I think ours will be 8-10 when all the Airbus pilots are displaced to the Boeing. I think Alaska’s “growth plan” which is actually to shrink will just hurt them more as far as attracting new hires, if they are even needed in the future, and attrition will continue.

Alaska will be fine. If Shyguys napkin math shows we need 3000, throw in some management pilots, med leave, retirements, attrition, etc, and it’s about balanced. Throwing around the furlough word in this environment seems silly to me and just a scare tactic.

the reason we had 5 year upgrades recently is because 600 people bypassed because commuting to reserve or having 12 “days” off isn’t appealing to them. If those people upgraded on schedule we would see the actual time which is probably more like 8 years.

To anyone coming here, you will be fine. However there are better opportunities at other carriers, for sure. Even at 6 years here I’m constantly torn on whether to leave.. wish I had just kept my stuff updated this whole time and took the first of the big 3 to call, but it is what it is.

Your right about the reason for the current upgrade time, that’s the reason the upgrade time will eventually be only 8+ years and not 12

So I'm an outsider looking in, and I fully understand the A320 divestiture and early A321 divestiture will create displacements over the next two years, but how does that create the stagnation you're talking about over the long term? My understanding is that mainline Alaska currently has 217 aircraft in both fleets with ~3,000 pilots on property. That's 13.8ish pilots per aircraft. From the investor conference presentation (at https://investor.alaskaair.com/stati...a-6d4d96bfdd1c), by the end of 2023 between A320/321 divestiture and 737 acquisition there's 241 aircraft in the fleet. Assuming the crew staffing ratio stays the same, that's 3,332 pilots on property, so 10% pilot group growth in a little over a year and a half plus another 106 new pilots needed to replace mandatory retirements.

From the same presentation, the company has options to expand up to 314 mainline aircraft by 2026. I realize those are options, but the history has been to never not exercise an option. Assuming that holds out with the same crew ratio, that means a 4,341-stong pilot group by the end of 2026. In other words, 44% growth in pilots over a 4-5 year span. IF there's not a change in the dynamics that cause some FOs to bypass upgrade, would it not be reasonable to assume that a similar upgrade/pilot progression timeline for new hires now continues into the next few years?

Like I said, I'm on the outside looking in. What am I missing?

You’re missing the Doom & Gloom mentality that so many share here on APC….

And assuming the aircraft delivery schedule goes to plan, and assuming that none of the older Boeings are replaced with new Max aircraft.

Yeah, and the -700s are pretty much all 22-25 years old. And the older 900s 20+ as well. So some of that WILL be replacement, especially if fuel costs stay high.

If all the 737-700s are retired, that’s still a 297 aircraft fleet at the end of 2026.

On the investor call they said 12 pilots/plane. Previous number was 12.6 and probably still is, just rounded to 12. The reason staffing has to be higher now is due to dual fleet and training associated with that. Accelerating the Airbus to gone next year means having to displace and train about 560 pilots onto the Boeing, and then that’s the 12.6 crews number I based the calculation on.

Your 2024-2026 fleet assumptions are based on excercising every single option. I’ll believe that when we see it. For now, firm is all I’m looking at.

This next bid should be telling. If I had to bet, I think it’s a Delta style MOAB.

We are going to cancel a lot of flights next month due to lack of crews and you guys are talking furloughs🤔?

250-300 a year hiring through 2026… if they all stayed😂

Don’t laugh too hard, displacement bid is supposed to be out… soon 🤔 maybe April 1st

In a previous post you mentioned that you didn’t see any downgrades. Every Airbus captain is senior to the 30most junior Boeing captains on the 5-2022 bid, plus a decent number of FOs on the Airbus are senior to the junior Boeing captains. How do you see no downgrades?

We are still growing… the bid will have upgrade positions

when does the bid come out?

Bid comes out Friday…..they just never say which Friday

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻😂😂😂

Bravo good sir.

If I recall correctly, Displaced Airbus captains can be downgraded if they can’t hold an open Captain position in another base, but they can’t displace a captain in another base just because their position was eliminated. The can bid for any open position once theirs has been eliminated, but they can’t knock someone out if their position.

That is not correct. If your position is eliminated you will bump a captain on the same fleet in another base and if you cant hold captain on your fleet than you will bump a captain on another fleet in your existing base if your seniority holds it or the next base your seniority holds it. Bump/Flush. If there are no additions. As a captain you will remain a captain somewhere as long as you have the seniority

If you choose to stay on your fleet but can no longer hold captain that is not an involuntary downgrade and you essentially are voluntarily down bidding with no freeze

First, all vacancies are awarded. Then the reductions are processed. Anyone bidding out of a reduced spot for a vacancy reduces that reduction in base/seat by 1. If you’re involuntary reduced, you can bid into ANY position your seniority can hold and in effect kick the bottom guy out. Even a bid with 200 Boeing CA vacancies and 200 Bus reductions will have large displacements because the Bus reductions are strictly in SFO and LAX, and the Boeing additions are spread over 4 bases. Maybe 5. Time will tell.

In any case, be ready for involuntary displacements and if you’re junior, bid ALL seats and bases you are okay with.

This is pretty good gouge. The current plan is two reduction bids… The last plan I saw was 80 reductions on the Airbus with about 100 737 CA positions opening. The current plan is two bids similar size, Oct 31 & Jan 31 effective.
Last I heard 737 SFO opening is still up in the air. They really are hesitant about opening it.

It will be a blood bath if they don’t open a Boeing SFO and just outright close the SFO base. :eek:

What they should do is open 737 NYC (JFK/EWR). I'm not going to waste any energy explaining why, although FAR 117 comes to mind.

We are not dealing with deep thinkers here, and thus the tragedy for the Alaska pilot group.

Cheers - Rob.

So to sum it all up, there’s gonna be a lot of ****ed off people system wide…

That’s for sure, my uneducated guess is no SFO boeing base, lots of downgrades and displacements, junior upgrade goes somewhere around 6-7 years.

It seems now that the whispers on the wind are leaning towards no SFO Boeing base initially. Such that the Airbus base in SFO will be fully closed prior to further consideration of what they are back to calling”a Bay Area base”….Network planning believes that “push through” flying can balance the lack of a base in a single fleet environment…It seems that way too much indecision on something as simple and basic as a pilot base is going on here. Keep in mind that the FA base is unaffected by the pilot base shenanigans.

I don’t see any of this. I doubt more then a couple downgrades… all pretty much voluntary. Upgrade slides maybe towards 5 years. SFO, they can’t make up their mind. They think there are significant crew savings in closing it. I kinda think it will open in the 2nd displacement bid, 1-3 odds still it doesn’t ever open 😱… The back out of SFO is really pretty junior in the CA seat…. Maybe a mid 800 to 900 numbers, could possibly be displaced, but dude that is still really a pretty Junior pilot. I think many will volunteer to prevent themselves from being stuck on RSV at that 8-900 number… which is a solid line holder in every other base. Displacement off the back end is likely 1800-2200 which buys that dude very little. It will be fine! Check back in 45 days… this will be a nonevent, worry about nothing.

The word is reserve staffing. Ladner and Day believe removing a base helps solve that problem. Not much more SFO flying planned in the mainline structure and at the level it is now it is not above what pre-merger Alaska was doing with no base ever planned….Those are the numbers and arguments that are in play in the staffing and network arena right now. To close a nearly 90% commuter base is dirt cheap. No one is moving their principal residence. If they open a new SFO/Bay Area base in a year or two they have lost nothing. Alaska flight operations also believes that driving off east coast commuters is a positive thing. Remember, this is a Seattle company and that kind of a move is common strategy in this soulless city.

When is the bid coming out?

Haven’t you heard? Bid always Comes out on a Friday…

Last Friday😂…

Honestly, maybe April 1st… I would call it a coin flip.

All very accurate, RSV coverage for a small base is expensive. In case you haven’t noticed, we don’t have a lot of room for wasted RSV coverage… I bet we cancel 300+ flights in APR for lack of pilots.

2 Weeks!!!

This is their staffing solution? These guys never cease to amaze me. Closing a base isn’t going to help attract new hires and will only increase attrition.

I mean, “involuntary downgrades” maybe a few. But bottom line is ALL Bus displacements are going to be California but the Boeing additions are ANC, SEA, PDX, and LAX. LAX is the only common overlap if they don’t open a SFO Boeing base. So LOTS of pilots will have to bid other bases and move or commute just to hold a CA spot. True, it’s technically not “involuntary” by definition to hold a CA spot. But let’s be honest, not being able to hold CA and having to commute is kinda a forced-choice. And displaced not holding CA in current base on any plane and go to another base just to hold CA is also a paid move by definition.

If I get displaced from 737 captain in LAX I'm bidding Airbus FO. Why not get the extra type rating and ride the Airbus into the sunset. The last people on the bus are going to get paid to stay home for at least a month or two.

Soooo, first…. Honestly, other than contract negotiations/progress I could care less. This place with its epically stupid add campaign, and woke-er than woke garbage is part and parcel of why so many are moving to Red states…… BUT….. Though I know M&A is supposedly off the table, the collective amount of weird shizzle going on these days is epic. SFO - Most west coast after VX merger to Gonna shut down SFO to… Grow SFO to Gonna shut down SFO…. All within the last 4 yrs. BT - Steps down as CEO to be BOD chair to…. “Ya know how bout I just quit the most cushy millions $$ job on the planet…. To spend more time with grandkids.” Horizon - “Let’s start a direct path to Alaska pilot with Horizon”… also, “let’s kill the entire Q-400 program and make Horizon way over staffed.” BM - negotiates a M&A clause to protect himself financially.

Sure does seem like a tightening up of the purse….. getting things trimmed up financially. Yet at the same time claiming growth.

Lots of odd behavior….

Just as long as the media and articles quote it as a pilot shortage, and not as us being the major airline with the worst pay, schedule, job security, and work rules in the industry, then its all gravy baby.

sweet another count down from OTZ. 45 days!
spring
next year
fall
2023
You have really cost me with all the timers I have had to buy for your count downs.