Apparently the California statute will supersede contract law….

Big 3 with crew bases out of SFO n LAX will crush this. Just wait.

Doesn’t work. If something doesn’t give soon, huge changes are coming. Right now AS is planning for a world where no pilot or FA is based in California. There is talk of very small turn bases but I would bet it all goes.

Historically that has not been the case for RLA contracts, since they are under federal auspices. Not sure what SCOTUS was thinking.

One would hope. How do they do long haul if they have to stop and let everybody off for a lunch break every four hours?

So they're going to totally abdicate Cali? Shrink to 1800 pilots? How's that going to align with their commuter-hating philosophy?


Although they could hypothetically close the bases and start/end every trip with DHD's from SEA. Which the CA would locals would simply not take. Big productivity hit. Maybe a LAS base would be better, less impact on FDP and less DHD pay.

🤔 Really, it’s not hard. Build 4 and 5 day trips that start and end in SEA & PDX… there will be some DH’s but it will work. JFK base will help, maybe a BOI, LAS, SLC, PHX. It’s going to take a little transferring of the network. It’s early but small bases in all four would help but they can get it all done with just larger SEA and PDX bases for now. To grow in the future, well that’s gonna take some new bases.

There will be no huge attrition on the pilot side… Every major airline will end up closing CA bases, it doesn’t work with those laws.

I guess we will just have to wait and see what UAL does with us in the future.

Funny what UAL does with you lol.

Back to this prediction again? You need new material.

Whatever happened to the United merger?

No comment on any potential mergers.

But in regards to the SCOTUS refusal to hear the case and the 9th circuit decision standing, it is happening. You’re kidding yourself if you don’t think that something has to give way here. The AFA thinks hiring (in our case) a 5th flight attendant would solve the problem with rotating breaks and an off duty FA onboard, but the law says off premise. Nor does it seem like the 1 hr pay per break missed is allowed on a routine basis. Nor does it seem that their contract can override CA state law.

If it really does end up that all airlines pull most or all of their crews out of California the law will get amended pretty quickly. That's a lot of tax revenue to give to neighboring states. If a relief crew member really doesn't count, how do the big 3 operate all of their international flights? Something will give in the text of the law before that happens.

Our resident Chicken Little speaks

Dang dude…. Ya stole my thunder!! 😂 Well done beatin me to it!! 🥃🥃

november 2022

Now THAT…. Is a STOUT prediction. Month… Year…..

Yall don’t be piling on my man OTZ now….. he just laid…it… down. “November 2022”. Write in Heaven…. Stomp it in hell.

Note to self: Bid around being off first week of Dec for week long celebration.

So, I’m gonna ask this question and feel free to PM instead of post on here. I don’t get offended by your posts, because, no offense, I take anonymous tips on web boards with a grain of salt….. but……

Whats UAL’s motivation? I’m curious

Mass, Pilots, & SEA… I could see a little spite from SK too. You don’t do this transaction to get back at AAL, though. You do it, because you want to become the largest airline in the world, with the best domestic network, with the best route and hub structure.

Laugh away, but give me till November. I have seen enough, I am confident this is going to go down.

Intelligent post, you must feel like:


https://i.postimg.cc/kXNW6gJr/1-F4-D...863-D4702.webp

As much as I'd be overjoyed that United would purchase our little airline and as much as I sincerely would hope it would happen. I would be far more inclined to believe that management will do anything to slow pilot attrition down. Considering the June numbers that were released today, I wouldn't put it past management to start a rumor that we were being purchased by a more desirable airline. Post the busy summer schedule of course...

Im not laughing…. I was just curious. What’s in it for BM and the BOD?

winner winner chicken dinner

What were the June numbers, higher than normal attrition?

Define “normal attrition.”

Higher than last year? Yes, much higher. But an informal poll of attrition at JetBlue and Spirit showed that YTD, the amount of people hired and attrition so far are extremely at JetBlue, Spirit, and Alaska. But standby, you’re about to hear how attrition is an Alaska-only problem because of a lack of a new pilot contract.

was just looking for the numbers. His post implied that attrition numbers went up from the previous months this year. When I said normal I was meaning the last 6 months or so. Maybe I misunderstood.

27 in June, 13 so far in July…

………………. Ty

Where do you see the June report? I only see the 5/31 attrition report on the ALPA app.

It will post soon…
27 June
13 July… so far
1 already for August

safe bet is July or August is gonna hit a 30 number 😂
maybe both.

Wonder if Sangita is still laughing at all the AS pilots🤔…

The average (mean) attrition for January-May was 14.6

Every month 13-17 pilots left. June was a big increase to 27 and July is already indicating 13 but there are likely many more considering what I am hearing on the line. I think the significance is what is being debated here and why you saw a negative reaction to your question from one of our more, outspoken members. It was pretty much cannon that it would take a lot of pilots leaving to change the terrible position for pilots here at AS. This is apparently no longer the case as classes are being overbooked by 20% and attrition is increasing rapidly yet management is not doing anything meaningful to help the pilot group out. In fact they are just going to hire through the attrition and telling us that staffing is fine. I think this is where a lot of the debate around leverage and attrition comes from.

There is positive news coming from our negotiation committee. However, this could just be a fake moment of goodwill as a stalling tactic to keep things going through the summer.

Devils advocate. We sign the ALPA ask, entirely, with 320/hr CAs and full retro to Apr 1, 2020.

I’m a sub 35 yr old newhire at AS with 30 or more years left. Tell me again, why should I stay at AS? Are we really going to pretend a new TA is going to keep me around? I don’t even care if it’s 350/hr. Why stick around as a new person for 30+ years, in 5 west coast ONLY bases, the MAX9/10 for the rest of my career, with much slower movement, lower retirements over the next 10 years?

Sorry, I don’t see the attrition problem stopping so as long as the big 3 pax + big 2 cargo keep hiring in big numbers as they are nowadays. The avg longevity for resignations is published by ALPA and seems to be a sub 3-yr value. No surprise there.

Hiring at the majors can change to furloughs overnight. That's the one thing that AS has going for it.

No junior pilots are immune. Eskimo furloughed in ‘08ish and would have furloughed again during COVID without ALA MEC’s intervention. We’re all just liabilities to Angle Lake. $$$ talk and everyone else walks.

AS is a major, and has furloughed.

If the economy tanks, or there is some other serious catastrophe, we should still insist on negotiating a contract with significant Pay, QOL, and Scope improvements.

The only difference could(?) be that if the situation is truly serious, and obvious to all sides, we perhaps agree to set aside only those parts that would significantly increase the airline's financial burden immediately. Later on, the rest of the agreement would then automatically kick in, based on some predetermined metric, once there's an upswing in the economic cycle.

That way, we wouldn't be left stuck with a concessionary contract, and later come to regret it as the airlines once again start making super profits and are unwilling to share in the windfall.

I think this time around, we have to take a different approach to contract negotiations during a downturn, and have the conviction to stick with it if we find ourselves in that scenario. History tells us that the economy will ALWAYS come back, despite what would be management's predictable doom and gloom pronouncements.

No plausible contract (even industry leading) can retain sub-40 pilots. Between retirements, widebodies, variety, and nonrev destinations AS can't hold a candle.

They might be able to get by as a decent option for older west coast types, career changers, etc.

I disagree. I'm going to introduce a word that most Alaska pilots have never seen before.

Incentives.

What sort of premiums could incentivize pilot retention? Airlines that can't compete on career progression will have to compensate elsewhere. Schedules with lots of time off. Fast vacation accruel. W2s 30% above the big 3 in comparable fleets.

Pilots are not monolithic. Some will choose a small company with great pay and QOL over widebody SJS. Think 90s Southwest.

Declaring that Alaska cannot compete is just an excuse to not even try for better.

You are spot on there. If Alaska can go to the job fair and honestly look a pilot in the eye and say, sure we don't have 787's, but we do have the best quality of life in the industry and with all of that extra money we pay, you can just buy a ticket Paris rather than struggling with the non rev life, they will have no problem attracting and retaining pilots.

Ummmm, y’all might not have heard it, but BM and SD have already answered this question of “incentives” with the reply “West Coast based”, “route structure”, and…. our “culture”. I mean, that doesn’t sway you away from everyone else, I don’t what would.

Because incentives don’t exist at Delta, American, and United? Whatever incentives we get, the big 3 will more than 1-UP it.


Even in this desperation time, as of right now there are ZERO premium trips (150%) in opentime systemwide for CAs. Why offer 150% when people pick up at 100%. Meanwhile at the big 3 they offered up to 300-400% when the going got bad.

I did not say we cannot try to be better. But your answer is a one off contract bargain cycle to convince a newhire sub 35 that has 30+ years left? Seniority is still seniority, and movement is still movement. We have a young-ish pilot group with relatively low retirements in the next 10 years. The majors lose more than half their list in that same time. Widebody SJS? That’s a new one. But even if you don’t want it, more pay at AS doesn’t make up for moving ~700 numbers in 10 years and be 66% then (barely out of bottom third). Anyway, one contract cycle isn’t going to be enough to keep someone from leaving here because “incentives!”

You don’t make a 30+ yr career decision on a 3 yr contract we might be signing in 6 months.

Like I said, Alaska will have to be better than the big 3 in the incentive game over the long term if they want to have a chance of maintaining a pilot group. I'm not sure what your point about premium is. We are talking about retention and Alaska just had its worst exodus month in its history.

Whatever man. No one will change your mind about anything. You come here week after week spouting the same ideas but with different flavors. This week's version is "Alaska can't compete." Last week's was "Recession imminent. Alaska won't compete for pilots." You'll just keep saying the same crap with different spins on it.

Alaska should bring back the pension. It would set them apart and also lock people in once they got a few years under their belt.

Alaska Management would rather close the doors and go out of business before they agreed to a contract that would pull young pilots away from the big 3. Whatever deal we end up with, might slow attrition, but it certainly will not stop it. Much cheaper to expand the training facilities 3x over and accept the position as a stepping stone to a more serious career. Sure. It's a shot to their massive ego and insufferable arrogance that has sustained them all these years...but they'll get over it.