As expected things are slowing and very little growth.

 

IMO there is going to be some pain during the learning curve. My prediction is that not enough will participate during the 3 months of trail runs. So everyone will get really unrealistic trips. When we all have to use PBS for our actual line there will be a lot of expectation bias that a pilot can hold unrealistic trips or days off. Most importantly the bottom 50% who will be "unstacked". Those ANC red eye turns have to go somewhere. So there will be a lot of sick calls. Which will go down to the reserve pilots. Effectively continuing the cycle of junior pilots leaving due to flying nothing but ANC and FAI red eye turns.

At least the ones I spoke with were leaving for that reason. I don't have access to the ALPA exit interviews.

As always the joke "have you tried being more senior?" is very, very relevant here. I hear a lot of senior FOs waiting to upgrade until PBS is implemented. This could be a QOL disaster. Unless they are projected to be better than 50% seniority on the captain list.

 

In my experience at least, when PBS works its magic (hah), it's actually the very top and the very bottom of the lineholder group that turns out OK. It's the 30%-70% lineholding folks who get shafted with PBS. Depending on how the company sets up the PBS rules — which is really the prime determinant of how anyone's PBS experience will go — there are definitely many cases where PBS will initially award, say, a sweet high-credit 2-day to a senior-ish lineholder...and then remove that trip and give it to a much more junior lineholder, because the senior lineholder put in too many constraints on his/her bid and the system can't complete the bid with those constraints. Or, because the company set a relatively high ALV and the pilot is trying to bid min credit...or for many other reasons.

Bottom line, the surprise for me (after looking at countless pilots' bids over my years working with PBS, and countless 'reason reports') is that quite often, it's the 0-30% and 70-100% lineholder guys who do OK with PBS. It's the middle 40-50% of lineholders who wind up with looks of horror when the bids are published. There's also a surprising lack of understanding over how PBS actually awards trips. A lot of it, though, is determined by the company...and that's where PBS can either be a huge win for a pilot group, or a huge loss (compared to line bidding.)

 

I just want to know who the idiots were that kept insisting we were deferring aircraft deliveries.

we are not.

 

The same idiots who claim we’re getting wide bodies. According to SD, we’re still taking deliveries of new aircraft-just slowing down a bit.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...omentum-slows/

"Executives said they will trim the planned growth of Alaska Airlines’ Boeing aircraft fleet over the next six months to match lowered expectations of air travel volume. Alaska Air CEO Ben Minicucci said the airline will be “moderating growth as a prudent measure.”

This article in the Seattle Times likely had people thinking we were deferring orders.

 

you seriously think a large group of pilots are going to pass up the pay they are offering to do the training bids?

 

I believe they’re offering up 10 hrs of pay for 3 rounds of bidding?

 

Hanging up on semantics perhaps. Webster’s definition and the latin root would imply that Ben in fact said that. He used Seattlized corporate double-speak but said it none the less. Before you get all northwesty on me…we will as we always have take all the airplanes we
have on order….The “when” is entirely unimportant….

 

They may. I can't predict that. Hopefully the pilot group will realize the importance of the trailing line value of 83 hours, the average line value of 85 hours (+2) and bottom 50% of lineholders getting "unstacked". If they don't it will likely mean a lot of work for the reserve pilots, in terms of last minute sick calls. Since those ANC and FAI turns have to go onto somebody's line and they will.