Alaska General Discussion
04-15-2024, 11:55 AM
#1651
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2022
Posts: 552
Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
Goodjet
End of March to early April, I took out large short positions in MSTR, COIN, PACB, TSLA, AAL, ALK, QQQ, and ARKK. Let’s see how I do. 🤔😉😉
And no I don’t follow Saylor’s advice 😂
End of March to early April, I took out large short positions in MSTR, COIN, PACB, TSLA, AAL, ALK, QQQ, and ARKK. Let’s see how I do. 🤔😉😉
And no I don’t follow Saylor’s advice 😂
04-15-2024, 12:35 PM
#1652
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,182
Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
Just took a significant short position in COIN today. I think I’m doing just fine, but thanks for checking on me.
Really… seems like I posted this 3-21-24… page 156, as I was executing😂😂😂. Seems like I told everyone in late January as I was selling out of the market. I said recession summer 2024, bear market till 2025… at least 40% down. Let’s see how this ages.🤔😉😉. I’m really, really, really good at this… like really good!
Watch the drop from here, I’m holding tell the bodies hit the floor! You can come on here any given day on a dead cat bounce, but by September you will be talking again about a “clock” and “2x a day” but mostly you are gonna look ridiculous!
Rick, could you please change my profile name to “Money”
Last edited by OTZeagle1; 04-15-2024 at 12:53 PM.
04-15-2024, 01:10 PM
#1653
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,182
Originally Posted by HostileCombover
Nobody wants to ask OTZ about BTC? I’ll do it…
You guys are too nice.
You guys are too nice.
Originally Posted by GoodJet
Hopefully, he'll stop making economic predictions.
At least 46 downgrades October 2024
04-15-2024, 01:25 PM
#1654
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,182
Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
Well…
I see a recession starting early to late spring. I expect a mild to medium downturn, that lasts 12-14 mos. I think IL’s and 75 max will keep everyone on property. My guess is AS will even make a little money over this period.
The current administration is doing everything it can to push this past the election, but I am confident summer of 2024 everyone will realize we are in a downturn.
I think spring hiring will be the last for 18 mos. I think upgrades are done for the same period. I expect the HA merger to be successful.
I sold everything I had in the market over the last few days, including all my BTC. I know you can’t time the market but here is me giving it a try.🤞
I’m sure I am wrong, I’m a clock after all. Best of luck. Recessions are a normal healthy part of the economic cycle.
I guess we will see how this post ages, I honestly hope I’m wrong.
I see a recession starting early to late spring. I expect a mild to medium downturn, that lasts 12-14 mos. I think IL’s and 75 max will keep everyone on property. My guess is AS will even make a little money over this period.
The current administration is doing everything it can to push this past the election, but I am confident summer of 2024 everyone will realize we are in a downturn.
I think spring hiring will be the last for 18 mos. I think upgrades are done for the same period. I expect the HA merger to be successful.
I sold everything I had in the market over the last few days, including all my BTC. I know you can’t time the market but here is me giving it a try.🤞
I’m sure I am wrong, I’m a clock after all. Best of luck. Recessions are a normal healthy part of the economic cycle.
I guess we will see how this post ages, I honestly hope I’m wrong.
I’ll post when I go long again. My guess right now is the S&P will hit a 3,200 number. How retro is that.🤔😉😂
04-16-2024, 03:23 PM
#1656
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 468
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
Would this imply 46 furloughs or 46 newhires?
Furloughs potentially cost more depending on the numbers.
as far as new hires, between PBS, slowing demand, merger, and Boeing’s issues, I wouldn’t expect to see any new hires for a few years.
04-16-2024, 04:20 PM
#1657
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2022
Posts: 552
Last time I saw so many widespread economic predictions made by AS pilots was September 2022. There was full blown panic regarding the economy and sadly we were voting on our contract. This sentiment put us all in a poor position, even the pilots that have a basic understanding of the economy and economic cycles. We are all hurt when fear and panic grip drive the pilot groups decisions. Even if I am not fearful I am still hurt by those who are.
Since that time until late March of this year the SPX reached an all time high of over 5600, a 51% increase. Now after a small decrease of less than 5% OTZ is back with his doom and gloom. He can no longer try to panic the pilot group with furloughs. So he is now pushing downgrades in an attempt to spread FUD: Fear, uncertainty and doubt. He is also employing his tactic of trying to remain relevant by constantly bringing up vauge and ever changing financial decisions and indicators. Even if markets turn around suddenly he will have seen it, reversed his trading strategy and will be back on APC no doubt bragging about his wealth.
Remember that FUD will be used as a tactic to gain consessions from the pilot group during our JCBA and that now despite growing passenger numbers and economic indicators that are still less than 5% from all time highs, managment can use the delivery schedule for MAX aircraft and staffing levels to drive FUD. Please try and educate yourself and not be fearful.
Since that time until late March of this year the SPX reached an all time high of over 5600, a 51% increase. Now after a small decrease of less than 5% OTZ is back with his doom and gloom. He can no longer try to panic the pilot group with furloughs. So he is now pushing downgrades in an attempt to spread FUD: Fear, uncertainty and doubt. He is also employing his tactic of trying to remain relevant by constantly bringing up vauge and ever changing financial decisions and indicators. Even if markets turn around suddenly he will have seen it, reversed his trading strategy and will be back on APC no doubt bragging about his wealth.
Remember that FUD will be used as a tactic to gain consessions from the pilot group during our JCBA and that now despite growing passenger numbers and economic indicators that are still less than 5% from all time highs, managment can use the delivery schedule for MAX aircraft and staffing levels to drive FUD. Please try and educate yourself and not be fearful.
04-16-2024, 06:37 PM
#1658
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,182
Originally Posted by GoodJet
Last time I saw so many widespread economic predictions made by AS pilots was September 2022. There was full blown panic regarding the economy and sadly we were voting on our contract. This sentiment put us all in a poor position, even the pilots that have a basic understanding of the economy and economic cycles. We are all hurt when fear and panic grip drive the pilot groups decisions. Even if I am not fearful I am still hurt by those who are.
Since that time until late March of this year the SPX reached an all time high of over 5600, a 51% increase. Now after a small decrease of less than 5% OTZ is back with his doom and gloom. He can no longer try to panic the pilot group with furloughs. So he is now pushing downgrades in an attempt to spread FUD: Fear, uncertainty and doubt. He is also employing his tactic of trying to remain relevant by constantly bringing up vauge and ever changing financial decisions and indicators. Even if markets turn around suddenly he will have seen it, reversed his trading strategy and will be back on APC no doubt bragging about his wealth.
Remember that FUD will be used as a tactic to gain consessions from the pilot group during our JCBA and that now despite growing passenger numbers and economic indicators that are still less than 5% from all time highs, managment can use the delivery schedule for MAX aircraft and staffing levels to drive FUD. Please try and educate yourself and not be fearful.
Since that time until late March of this year the SPX reached an all time high of over 5600, a 51% increase. Now after a small decrease of less than 5% OTZ is back with his doom and gloom. He can no longer try to panic the pilot group with furloughs. So he is now pushing downgrades in an attempt to spread FUD: Fear, uncertainty and doubt. He is also employing his tactic of trying to remain relevant by constantly bringing up vauge and ever changing financial decisions and indicators. Even if markets turn around suddenly he will have seen it, reversed his trading strategy and will be back on APC no doubt bragging about his wealth.
Remember that FUD will be used as a tactic to gain consessions from the pilot group during our JCBA and that now despite growing passenger numbers and economic indicators that are still less than 5% from all time highs, managment can use the delivery schedule for MAX aircraft and staffing levels to drive FUD. Please try and educate yourself and not be fearful.
PACB… did you see that today… -50% in a day, -64% total for me. Do you know what that pays in a short position? Take a look at the option chain. I closed that this afternoon. That’s more money than you will make in 3 years at Alaska. Yup, you hope “ I have nothing to do with anything financially at Alaska.”. 🤣🤣😂
What’s retro about that dude? That’s not five, that’s 63%😱
I have COIN AT -19%, MSTR AT -31%, TSLA at -14%, ARKK at -12%, AAL at -15%, ALK at -10%, QQQ at -5%. Honestly, the AAL, ALK and QQQ are pretty small positions but still, pretty awesome! The COIN and MSTR are LIFE CHANGING TRADES! Do you have any idea what those returns look like on paper right now? Please check back in on me, if you want I can give you my bank account number and you can just transfer all your money into my account since you are so awesome in the market. PACB closed today. I will tell you when I close out all my positions. Most of these will end up being 5x to 8x trades. Have you ever made those kinds of returns, I haven’t! 👍👍👍😂😂😂
Last edited by OTZeagle1; 04-16-2024 at 06:56 PM.
04-16-2024, 06:45 PM
#1660
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 528
Originally Posted by flysnoopy76
Neither, it costs the company essentially nothing to downgrade at least from a training standpoint.
Furloughs potentially cost more depending on the numbers.
as far as new hires, between PBS, slowing demand, merger, and Boeing’s issues, I wouldn’t expect to see any new hires for a few years.
Furloughs potentially cost more depending on the numbers.
as far as new hires, between PBS, slowing demand, merger, and Boeing’s issues, I wouldn’t expect to see any new hires for a few years.
I expect attrition to spike "more than anticipated" and hiring to resume sooner than forecast. That said, Boeing may not deliver the expected planes this year so it might just all be a wash.
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