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Old 04-28-2025 | 09:29 AM
  #8181  
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Originally Posted by Jetlikespeed
they are but I don’t know what markets they are measuring as we are flying less than .5% more in may so the may number is not in line with the block hours we flew in may

in may of 2024 we had 83302 block hours and may of 25 we had 83564 block hours which is less than .5% growth it’s like .1%
That’s because the source document is forward looking. It’s a best estimate and it’s never quite exact. I believe it’s called the 10K.

AFAIK the projection isn’t for specific markets. It’s showing an overall trend. But I’ve been so busy on reserve I haven’t had the time to give it a look yet.
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Old 04-28-2025 | 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by MinRest
But, those are FACTS...
Source documents from the earnings call or your anecdotal references to possible internal interviews via the flow program?

I know which one I’d pick..

The -8 is still sitting on the ramp at BFI. And there have been zero other movements for April. So far, no deliveries for Q2.
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Old 04-28-2025 | 10:13 AM
  #8183  
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Originally Posted by GoodJet
Someone on the internal forum said -4.6 percent. I haven’t fact checked that. Seems widely agreed upon. Except you of course. You should slow your roll on the temper tantrums it’s not a good look.

This was an interesting read:

https://www.reddit.com/r/AlaskaAirlines/s/XwrFb2V1t7
That map and title on this Reddit post is misleading. Of the roughly 14 routes that were cut, 9 of them were added or resumed (PHL) after the merger.

Post merger, AS wanted to grow SFO rapidly to compete against UA. Then UA put the smack down on AS and they retreated.
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Old 04-28-2025 | 10:14 AM
  #8184  
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Originally Posted by ExperimentalAB
Maybe a little bit…but much of that is going to happen by Alaska utilizing crews more efficiently (read lower QOL for us). And any hiring will be Hawaiian side only.
I’ve never understood this “Hawaiian side only”. We will have one seniority list eventually. Every pilot hired after merger announcement will be Date of Hire on the list. Every new person junior to me is always a good thing.
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Old 04-28-2025 | 10:39 AM
  #8185  
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Originally Posted by Jetlikespeed
this is someone’s AI overview of of robs thing that says SELECT markets

The AI was also apparently accounting for pending Q400 retirements...
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Old 04-28-2025 | 10:47 AM
  #8186  
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Originally Posted by GoodJet
That’s because the source document is forward looking. It’s a best estimate and it’s never quite exact. I believe it’s called the 10K.

AFAIK the projection isn’t for specific markets. It’s showing an overall trend. But I’ve been so busy on reserve I haven’t had the time to give it a look yet.
no rob use to work on Wall Street he (I think) is still subscribed to some publications that we don’t have from people still on Wall Street. The 8-K and Q1 earnings does not have those values. The Q1 stuff only shows 1-2% growth in Q2 and Q3 and 4% in Q4 but I would bet Q4 is very much up for re sizing if the economy goes south
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Old 04-28-2025 | 03:44 PM
  #8187  
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Originally Posted by Akamai
Precedent from DAL/NWA and UAL/CAL was that all widebody seats (both CA and FO) were fenced. This was also the case in AA/US and every merger that I’m aware of that included widebodies.

Also precedent in both those two mergers was that future widebody orders were fenced. The 787 was fenced at NWA which was never delivered, and the A350 was fenced at UAL which of course was never delivered.

All that said, no one knows what an arbitrator will decide. They are however bound by Section 45 and very unlikely to deviate from past precedent.
This merger or more accurately acquisition. Is not NWA/DAL or UAL/CAL or AA/US. The process will play out. You have no control. Relax, speculating is pointless. If everyone is ****ed it will be a good SLI. 😂
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Old 04-28-2025 | 04:02 PM
  #8188  
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Originally Posted by Agua1967
This merger or more accurately acquisition. Is not NWA/DAL or UAL/CAL or AA/US.
Well it kind of is, because ALPA policy and precedent came in part out of those mergers... an arbitrator will be required to reference that to inform his decision making. The arbitrator's job isn't to do whatever HE thinks is fair, it's to apply the union policy to which we are all party, as best as he can interpret that.

Also this is the actually the last of the old skool legacy airline mergers, the notable difference being that only one side has WB's (of course ALPA policy revolves around WB's ).

Originally Posted by Agua1967
You have no control. Relax, speculating is pointless. If everyone is ****ed it will be a good SLI. 😂
With one caveat: AS side stands to wind up at significant seniority/fence disadvantage (nature of WB vs. NB SLI)... maybe we should ensure that the JCBA has some goodies in it for us specifically, in addition to industry-standard WB rates?
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Old 04-28-2025 | 04:05 PM
  #8189  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
The AI was also apparently accounting for pending Q400 retirements...
AI is pretty decent at breaking down a fairly complex spreadsheets (math) into easy to understand plain language.

Not so great with language and making analogies. Leave it to pilots to throw the baby out with the bath water because AI got an aircraft type mixed up. I’m sure it could be trained to understand scope, fleet dynamics and aircraft retirements. That wasn’t the ask of AI. So the mistake regarding fleet type didn’t bother me.

There are currently some really good points being made about growth being moved to other airlines and the need for additional scope protection.
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Old 04-28-2025 | 04:07 PM
  #8190  
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Originally Posted by Akamai
Eischen was the lead arbitrator for both. I don’t have links for the awards but B.4 & B.5 from the DAL/NWA award and B.5 in the UAL/CAL award have widebody fence language that says: “ For a period of five years, no premerger ABC pilot may be awarded a Captain or First Officer vacancy on XYZ aircraft or displaced to one.”

As I previously stated, the awards do have an allowance for unfilled vacancies to be staffed by the premerger pilots that are fenced off, which is highly unlikely to happen for the CA seat but very well could happen for the FO seat (especially in SEA) since we put new hires into the 330/787 in HNL.
My anecdotal information probably was based on the lived experience of the guys I talked so, guess that's where I got the idea that FO's weren't fenced, since they ended being able to grab unfilled vacancies in short order.

I tend to assume that those hired onto the HAL list after the merger announcement date won't enjoy fence protections, wouldn't make sense that a 2024 HAL hire would have priority over a 2014 AS hire?
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