Quote:
Originally Posted by KC135
I’d have to disagree here. Take a look at the last couple downturns. When things were bad at least you had a job. We are very quick to forget how legacies furloughed last decade, some twice while G4 did hire (B6 also) through most of that period and made a profit.
With that being said your decision will probably be a factor of your age, how you value money/qol and where you want to live. DAL would be a big hit in QOL but a large bump in pay, retirement and arguably stability. While DAL’s business model puts then in a position more likely to furlough during a downturn their massive amount upcoming retirements would most like offset this future risk in my opinion. Only you can determine your priorities in terms of QOL, pay and stability (hard to predict).
For me it was a top priority not to leave my family for 4-5 days at a time (yes DAL has a lot of 5 days, 15-43% of total A320 hours depending on domicile). Some of you bring up the point, well G4 could lose the day trips. Very unlikely due to the current model/CASM structure but always a possibilty with a merger/acquisition. Even if I only get 5-10 more years of day trips/being with my family and I have to go back to living 40-60% of my life in hotels it would have been all worth it. Everybody is different though, I have friends who enjoy a weekly getaway from their family life or are driven by max income and there is nothing wrong with that.
Excellent points.
In regards to furlough, it's anyone's guess and while it's true that Allegiant hired while others were laying off, it's not the same airline or industry and the past is not always an indicator of the future.
G4 is no longer the nimble trinket with cheap planes and cheaper labor that stayed under the radar, surviving a recession by parking planes that were paid for. Today's G4 is a $2.5B company with $1B in resort debt, higher (unionized) labor costs with less flexibility, newer aircraft and stiffer competition from majors and other ULCCs. (The 'U' is disappearing in 'ULCC'). Others have caught on to the ancillary revenue and the majors are coming after AAY and others with increased presence in smaller and mid-sized markets. Yes they've failed before with Song and Ted, so time will tell.
Legacies face huge headwinds of their own so they're not risk-free either when it comes to furlough, but retirements should ensure fairly rapid progression. If I were junior, single and still in my 30s, I would be gone already. Pay, security and retirements aren't even in the same ballpark. CAVEAT: The quality of life at G4 is HUGE; a unique and incalculable benefit for families; although it appears foundational, there's no way of telling how much or how long it will last, or even whether AAY will last in it's present form.
Whatever you decide, best of luck in your decision. On your retirement day you will know the answer.
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